Dr Hamdy Abdelrahman Hassan

Russia previously pursued its strategic objectives in Africa and other regions of the world via a private military company known as the Wagner Group. This enabled the Kremlin to distance itself from the actions of Russian mercenaries in African countries such as Mali. Russia would always claim that the Wagner Group was not under the direct oversight of the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, since the killing of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, there has been a fundamental shift in Russia’s approach. Russian authorities have sought to recruit numerous volunteers to join the Africa Corps, which will replace the Wagner mercenaries who operated as a private military company in Africa. Russia hopes that this corps will grow to 20,000 members during 2024, both from new recruits and former Wagner mercenaries. According to official Russian sources, the Africa Corps will be subject to the oversight of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Central African Republic (CAR) will be the regional base for Russian involvement in Africa, especially in Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, and Niger. Around 100 Russian soldiers recently arrived in Burkina Faso to provide security to President Ibrahim Traoré.A New ApproachDenis Pavlov, a Russian diplomat, became the new coordinator for Russian mercenaries who had operated under the auspices of the Wagner Group. Pavlov previously worked as an intelligence officer for the Russian missions to UNESCO, the UN, and the European Union in Paris, Geneva, and Brussels. The Africa Corps was announced in December 2023, after Deputy Minister of Defense Yevkurov’s trips to West and North Africa. It is no secret that the Alliance of Sahel States (which includes Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) was formed in September 2023, following coordination with Moscow.The Africa Corps units in various countries in the region will serve to strengthen the Russian military presence there through a network of bases controlled by the Russian Ministry of Defense. One of these bases is set to be built in the Central African Republic, where 2000 Russian soldiers are currently stationed. Russia is openly attempting to revive its Cold War-era clout in Africa by taking advantage of the marked decline in Western (and especially French) influence. It is evident that this new approach will also enable the Kremlin to expand its control over Wagner’s business networks in Africa, including lucrative mining companies.The Africa Corps is very unlikely to operate in the Sahel region without the involvement of Libya or Algeria, which would provide outlets to the sea. These two countries also possess airports that would be key points of departure. In August 2023, Yevkurov met in Benghazi with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army, who controls the eastern part of the country. The two met a second time in late September 2023 in Moscow, marking Haftar’s first visit to Russia since 2016. African countries have clearly reaped significant benefits from historical cooperation with the Soviet Union and later with Russia in the security sector. It is improbable that these countries would give up that legacy, since there is a general sense that it is mutually beneficial for Russia and Africa, and that it is sensible to maintain these ties.Russia is trying to shift from covert military involvement in Africa to a more visible and direct presence. Unlike with the private military company whose bases were difficult to control, the new Africa Corps will be subject to the Russian military chain of command. The new corps can be understood as a special unit operating under the Ministry of Defense. Its operations are primarily centered in West and Central Africa, but the Africa Corps could also provide support for Russian involvement in other regions.&nbsp;Significant ImplicationsThe African military coups of the last few years demonstrate that Africans are prepared to pursue foreign policy ties solely with equal and cooperative footing. This could mean that these countries pull back from the West’s neocolonial approach, which has undermined the West’s standing in Africa. Meanwhile, African ties with Russia have grown in line with Moscow’s objective of changing the current world order. By pursuing cooperation that is beneficial to all parties involved, the Russian Federation—like China—seeks to establish a multipolar world.The Africa Corps will bolster Russia’s military presence through a network of bases controlled by the Russian Ministry of Defense. This is part of an effort to reestablish Moscow’s Cold War-era influence in Africa. At the time same, the shift to a formal military structure remakes the concept of the Wagner Group, which had provided the Kremlin with plausible deniability against UN accusations that its mercenaries had committed war crimes in Africa.This shift in the Russian military’s approach might seem small, with only 100 Russian soldiers arriving in Burkina Faso to provide security to Ibrahim Traoré, who seized power in a 2022 military coup. However, the Kremlin has ambitious plans, including building a regional base in the Central African Republic, from which the Wagner Group launched a violent campaign over the last six years on the president’s behalf. It also infiltrated the national security agency in exchange for diamonds and gold. This military base is being built as Russian forces in the CAR have expanded to almost 2,000 soldiers since September 2023. This is a sign of intensifying African security cooperation with Russia.Anti-French and anti-Western sentiment appears to have been one of the drivers behind the military coups. As a result, Russia sees the Sahel as a region where it can establish a foothold through the Africa Corps. Sahel countries that have experienced coups in the last few years have been very open to Moscow. Interim President Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso met with Putin and held talks during the July 2023 Russia-Africa Summit. Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-bek Yevkurov also visited Libya in August 2023 and then Niger in December of last year, before also traveling on to Mali. On 24 January 2024, Putin met with Mahamat Idriss Déby, Chad’s military leader, who came to power in a soft coup in 2021.The US is concerned that Russia could reach an agreement about military involvement in Niger, where the US has a large drone airbase. Russia has already backed countries in the Sahel in combatting insurgencies and terrorist groups. In November 2023, the Malian army, with the help of Russian fighters, retook control of the strategic northern city of Kidal, which separatist rebels had controlled for more than a decade. As has also been the case elsewhere, official army forces are gradually replacing Wagner contractors in Mali, even if this transition has not fully been completed.In addition to supporting state regimes, the Africa Corps forces are expected to maintain the same approach that the Wagner Group adopted with regard to focusing on extracting raw materials for hard currency to fund the war in Ukraine. It appears that Russia has remodeled itself in Africa: the Kremlin has suddenly distanced itself from the Wagner Group, which the West had tried to contain, and returned with new vigor as the Africa Corps.In conclusion, the Wagner Group has transformed itself into the Africa Corps, which will be a critical tool for Russia in cementing its influence in Africa. This is especially true in light of continued instability in the Sahel region and the receding role of ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States). By positioning itself as a security partner in the region, Russia will be able to address immediate security concerns while also paving the way to expand its influence across Africa. Despite its current focus on the Sahel region, the Africa Corps’ long-term ambitions undoubtedly stretch much further. Russia is demonstrating strategic intent to play a key role in shaping African geopolitics within a volatile international environment.&nbsp;

How Africa Corps Bolsters Russian Influence