Dr Hamdy Abdelrahman Hassan

If we could take a time machine into the future, we could visit the Afrotopian world set forth in the African Union’s Agenda 2063. We would be able to behold open borders, and a world in which people, capital, goods, and services move freely across the continent, from Cairo to Cape Town, and from Dakar to Nairobi. In this same future, the old continent—Europe—struggles with the rise of an anti-immigrant right that raises alarms about the threats of irregular migration and terrorism in the borderless Schengen area. Meanwhile, the African continent of 1.2 billion people has freed itself from the borders drawn by colonialism, and has set out to build an African Schengen area. The once-abstract dream of African unity became closer to a reality when the African Union took the bold step of offering a common African passport. The first holders of this new document were two African leaders: Rwandan President Paul Kagame and the late Chadian President Idriss Déby.

Will African Countries Succeed in Lifting Internal Movement Restrictions?

An African Schengen:

The electoral commission’s announcement of the results of the elections held in South Africa on 29 May 2024 signaled a political earthquake and a defining moment in the country’s political history. Voter turnout was at a very low level of 58%, reflecting dissatisfaction with government policies that, since 2008, have led to increased poverty, inequality, and unemployment. However, the strong showing of former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party, often referred to as the MK—which won 14% of the total national vote and 45% of the vote in its electoral stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal province—challenged most of the prevailing political analysis in South Africa.

South Africa and the Duality of Stability and Development

The Return of Zuma:

Russia previously pursued its strategic objectives in Africa and other regions of the world via a private military company known as the Wagner Group. This enabled the Kremlin to distance itself from the actions of Russian mercenaries in African countries such as Mali. Russia would always claim that the Wagner Group was not under the direct oversight of the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, since the killing of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, there has been a fundamental shift in Russia’s approach. Russian authorities have sought to recruit numerous volunteers to join the Africa Corps, which will replace the Wagner mercenaries who operated as a private military company in Africa. Russia hopes that this corps will grow to 20,000 members during 2024, both from new recruits and former Wagner mercenaries. According to official Russian sources, the Africa Corps will be subject to the oversight of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Central African Republic (CAR) will be the regional base for Russian involvement in Africa, especially in Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, and Niger. Around 100 Russian soldiers recently arrived in Burkina Faso to provide security to President Ibrahim Traoré.

How Africa Corps Bolsters Russian Influence

A Wagner Alternative:

There’s an African proverb that says: "If you want to go fast, go alone. But if you want to go far, go together." That seemed to be Italy’s logic as it sought to convince African leaders to join forces under the Mattei Plan. The plan is named after the late Enrico Mattei, who founded the Italian energy company Eni. In the 1950s, Mattei called on Italy to support north African governments in developing their natural resources. A long-awaited Italy-Africa summit was held on 28 January 2024 with 25 African leaders. During the opening ceremony, the Mattei Plan for Africa was officially unveiled as an ambitious project to strengthen ties on energy supply, with Eni at the forefront of these endeavors. During the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai last December, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stated that the plan aimed to "build mutually beneficial partnerships and support the energy security of African and Mediterranean nations."

Dr Hamdy Abdelrahman Hassan

Dr Hamdy Abdelrahman Hassan

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