Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

On July 23, 2025, Massad Boulos, the advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump on Arab, Middle Eastern, and African affairs, paid an official visit to Libya. This was the first visit by a senior American official since Trump assumed the presidency. The purpose of the visit was to discuss developments in Libya at the local, regional, and international levels. During his trip, Massad Boulos met with Mohamed al-Menfi, Chairman of the Presidential Council; Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, Prime Minister of the interim Government of National Unity; and Nagy Issa, Governor of the Central Bank of Libya. He also held subsequent meetings with political and security officials in Benghazi to address key issues on his agenda. However, this visit raises several questions about its significance and timing.&nbsp;Multiple DimensionsBoulos’ visit to Libya at this time carries several dimensions, the most significant of which include:1- Reframing the U.S. Policy Toward Libya: The visit reflects a new approach by U.S. President Donald Trump in handling foreign policy files, particularly concerning Africa and the Middle East. This approach involves assigning his advisors to lead direct engagement efforts with regional governments, aiming to achieve swift, tangible results in areas of strategic importance to the U.S. administration, such as reconstruction, security coordination, and energy.This strategy relies on bypassing traditional diplomatic channels by dispatching high-level envoys with flexible mandates and the authority to conduct rapid, direct negotiations with Libyan parties. The visit also comes as the Trump administration re-engages with regional issues through unconventional tools. This move signals a possible shift in how the U.S. deals with the Libyan file.2- Supporting the UN Track and Filling the European Vacuum: The visit comes at a time when the United States is reaffirming its continued support for the political process led by the United Nations mission, which calls for the formation of a unified government based on the outcomes of the Advisory Committee. These outcomes outline a roadmap toward elections, beginning with the unification of sovereign institutions, the preparation of legal and constitutional frameworks, and the establishment of a consensual constitutional basis.It's worth noting that these efforts coincide with a declining political influence of certain European powers involved in Libya, most notably Italy, which faces increasing pressure due to irregular migration routes and views the Libyan situation as a direct threat to its regional stability. Nevertheless, the European response remains fragmented and largely reactive with no cohesive strategy in sight. Meanwhile, calls to revitalize UN mediation persist, as the Libyan crisis continues to pose risks to stability on multiple fronts unless external actors move swiftly and decisively.3- Recalibrating the Balance of Power in Libya: This visit included meetings with prominent figures from both the Government of National Unity and the eastern-based leadership, amid escalating tensions and renewed fears of conflict in Tripoli, which faces a real risk of descending into violence. The standoff between the Government of National Unity and the Special Deterrence Force has intensified. Militants tightened their grip on critical infrastructure, including Mitiga Airport, effectively restricting the Prime Minister’s movements. The timing of the visit is therefore highly sensitive, taking place in a period of political stagnation and uncertainty, accompanied by growing international calls to accelerate the political process and implement the long-delayed elections.4- Enhancing the U.S. Presence in Libya’s Energy Sector: Massad Boulos met with Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, the Prime Minister of the interim Libyan government, to discuss opportunities for cooperation in the fields of energy, minerals, infrastructure, healthcare, and telecommunications. Dbeibeh emphasized the Government of National Unity’s commitment to building economic partnerships with the United States, opening the door for major American companies to participate in development and investment projects.The Libyan government team presented a detailed proposal outlining strategic economic partnership opportunities valued at approximately $70 billion. These projects include ready-to-implement initiatives in the energy, minerals, electricity, infrastructure, and telecommunications sectors, paving the way for American investment in the Libyan market. Discussions also covered recent developments in Libya’s oil sector, particularly new opportunities in both offshore and onshore areas. On July 23, the National Oil Corporation of Libya confirmed that Mellitah Oil &amp; Gas Company will collaborate with the U.S.-based Hill International consulting firm to manage a project aimed at boosting gas production in Libya.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Potential ImplicationsThis visit is expected to have implications for the U.S.-Libyan relations and for international dynamics in Libya, as follows:1- Washington Attempting to Bridge Communication Gaps between Warring Forces: President Trump’s advisor is expected to propose a political initiative aimed at narrowing the gap between the authorities in eastern and western Libya and supporting the UN-led initiative, in a bid to achieve national reconciliation and forming a transitional government. The initiative also seeks to advance the political process leading to a constitutional referendum and the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections. This move aligns with President Trump's broader efforts to resolve international crises in various regions, part of a strategy that some observers view as tied to his ambition to be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize.2- Lifting the U.S. Freeze on Libyan Funds: Following the signing of agreements to boost American investments in Libya’s oil sector, the Trump administration is seeking to negotiate political and economic deals involving the release of frozen Libyan funds. The Libyan government has been pushing for the lifting of sanctions on these assets. Earlier, Massad Boulos discussed with officials close to Dbeibeh the possibility of unfreezing billions of dollars belonging to Libya’s sovereign funds. Boulos indicated that a portion of these resources could be reinvested in ventures with American companies operating in Libya.3- Enhancing Security and Military Cooperation with Benghazi: The visit of Boulos comes as the new Trump administration seeks to deepen its ties with Benghazi to expand its security and military presence, particularly in southern Libya. Several reports indicate that Saddam Haftar, son of Khalifa Haftar, is under consideration by U.S. national security circles as a potential future leader. In April 2025, Saddam Haftar reportedly held secret talks in Washington with Trump’s envoy and senior U.S. intelligence officials. However, no official statement has been issued regarding the meetings.4- Rising Competition Between Washington and Asian Powers in the Maghreb: Libya was one of the stops on Boulos’s tour, which included several Maghreb countries such as Tunisia and Morocco. Washington is increasingly concerned about the growing influence of several Asian powers, notably Russia and China in this region. On one hand, Moscow is seeking to strengthen its military and security ties with countries in the region and to enhance its presence on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. On the other hand, China aims to increase its investments and bolster its economic presence across the Maghreb, including in Libya. The competition with Moscow is expected to intensify following the Trump administration’s failure to achieve sustained political rapprochement with Washington or to convince Moscow to pursue political détente and reach a political deal with Ukraine.5- Intensifying Economic Competition Between Washington and Europe: Economic competition between the U.S. and European powers is growing, particularly in Libya’s oil sector. While several European countries are experiencing a decline in their political influence in Libya, Washington’s assertive entry into the oil sector is expected to have implications for transatlantic relations. The competition is further fueled by Europe’s ongoing embargo on Russian oil amid the Russia-Ukraine war.International Competition In sum, the visit of Boulos to Libya takes place amid Trump’s ambitions to strengthen its regional presence in both the Maghreb and the African Sahel. This tour follows a recent high-level meeting between President Trump and leaders of five African countries, including the President of Mauritania. Additionally, rising trade tensions have emerged after the Trump administration expressed support for imposing new tariffs on several Maghreb countries. This situation further intensifies military rivalry with Moscow and economic competition with China in Libya and the broader Maghreb region.

Understanding the Drivers Behind the Visit of Massad Boulos to Libya