Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

On July 23, 2025, Massad Boulos, the advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump on Arab, Middle Eastern, and African affairs, paid an official visit to Libya. This was the first visit by a senior American official since Trump assumed the presidency. The purpose of the visit was to discuss developments in Libya at the local, regional, and international levels. During his trip, Massad Boulos met with Mohamed al-Menfi, Chairman of the Presidential Council; Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, Prime Minister of the interim Government of National Unity; and Nagy Issa, Governor of the Central Bank of Libya. He also held subsequent meetings with political and security officials in Benghazi to address key issues on his agenda. However, this visit raises several questions about its significance and timing. 

Understanding the Drivers Behind the Visit of Massad Boulos to Libya

American Re-engagement:

A global monitoring report issued by the Institute for the Study of War's Critical Threats Project on June 26, 2025, warned of an escalation in attacks by ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Sahel region of Africa. This comes just days after an ISIS attack on June 23 on the village of Manda in the Goroual region of Tillabéri state in western Niger, which killed at least 71 people. Through this attack, ISIS sought to counterbalance al-Qaeda's terrorist operations in the Sahel, especially after the latter launched attacks against Malian government forces and the Wagner Group, inflicting heavy losses on them in early June. This raises numerous questions about the reasons for the renewed rivalry between ISIS and al-Qaeda in this region.

How Far Can Terrorist Group Rivalries Escalate in the Sahel?

Struggle For Influence:

On June 16, 2025, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud called for a National Dialogue Forum in Somalia. The forum is expected to discuss key issues such as combating terrorism and the upcoming 2026 elections, scheduled to be held through direct voting for the first time in decades. This comes amid the absence and boycott of the opposition, despite the government’s assurance that the dialogue aims to reach consensus on issues like completing the constitution, electoral reforms, and fighting terrorism. Although some opposition leaders are missing, the government insists the forum remains open and inclusive. This raises questions about the significance of holding the forum at this time.

What Are the Key Drivers Behind Launching a Dialogue Forum in Somalia?

Multiple Messages:

In a notable development, the United States extended military support to Puntland State on May 9, 2025, by supplying American fighter aircraft to aid its counterterrorism efforts. According to multiple reports, Puntland has acquired aircraft designated for reconnaissance and precision airstrikes to bolster its fight against extremist groups, chiefly ISIS, in the Bari Mountain Ranges. This aid coincides with Puntland’s preparations to join an ongoing "military operation" against ISIS in Bari, following the training of elite security personnel in operating these aircrafts.

The Implications of Growing U.S. Military Support for Puntland

Strategic Anchor:

On April 21, 2025, Burkina Faso’s ruling military council announced it had thwarted a coup attempt, calling it a "conspiracy aimed at spreading chaos and destabilizing the country". This event marks a fresh escalation in the ongoing security and political crisis gripping the West African nation. The coup attempt is not an isolated incident. Since Captain Ibrahim Traoré seized power in 2022, five such attempts have been recorded, including three in 2024 alone. This surge raises urgent questions about the drivers of these counter-coup efforts and their implications for regional stability across the Sahel and West Africa.

Why Are Counter-Coup Attempts Escalating in Burkina Faso?

Power Struggle:

Indo-African relations are growing closer and closer, a development that rests to a great extent on an energetic military diplomacy. Between March 21 and 29 of this year, India organized AFINDEX 2023, a joint Indo-African training exercise that included 24 African countries and a sequel to the first AFINDEX held in 2019. These efforts are expected to lead to stronger political partnerships with African countries, broader security cooperation, a stronger military presence, increased weapons purchases and an attempt to counterbalance the Chinese maritime presence. But they face challenges as well: the growing Chinese economic and military presence, regional opposition to New Delhi, and the difficulty of funding maritime expansion.

Why is India Pursuing Active Military Diplomacy in Africa?

Stronger Partnerships:

A controversy is brewing in Western foreign policy circles over the expansion of the economic presence of the Russian military company the Wagner Group in Africa. Many reports have pointed to this increasing role. On December 2, the Belgian Belga News Agency published a report on the involvement of the Russian military group Wagner in diamond trading and smuggling operations from the Central African Republic to Belgium, which raises questions about the extent of the economic expansion of the Wagner group in the African continent.

Why is Wagner's Empire Expanding into Africa?

Investing in Fragility:

On 11 October, Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba asked African nations to support Ukraine and take a stance against Russian military operations. Kuleba said that he was very grateful for the hospitality and warm welcome he had received in Africa, shortly after returning from a tour that began on 4 October. Kuleba visited Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Kenya, and had originally planned a longer ten-day trip, but returned home early due to Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities on 10 and 11 October. During his trip to Senegal, Kuleba promised that Ukraine would do everything in its power to continue exporting grain to Africa. Ukraine’s increased engagement with Africa raises various questions about Kiev’s capacity to gain the upper hand vis-a-vis Russia on the African continent.

Can Ukraine Expand its Influence in Africa?

Diverse Challenges:

On September 30, a military coup took place in Burkina Faso, the second in eight months, following a coup in early January of this year. The coup leaders accused France of supporting the leader of the previous coup, Paul-Henri Damiba, and demonstrations were staged calling for the expulsion of French forces from the country. This raises questions about the future of France’s military presence in Burkina Faso post-coup, especially after demonstrators set fire to the French embassy and raised pro-Russia flags in support of Moscow’s policy in the region.

Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

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