Dr. Muhammad Abbas Naji‏‏

Iranian military officials have stepped up their <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-warns-us-of-unpredictable-response-sets-5-conditions-for-peace-12278745?" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">warnings</a> about the consequences of a renewed conflict with the United States. On November 3, 2026, Major General Ali Abdollahi, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, warned that any new attack on Iran would trigger an unpredictable military response, spilling beyond geographical boundaries. He added that Iran’s armed forces could target both the tangible and intangible assets of their adversaries. Abdollahi also stated that in order to achieve lasting peace in the region, Tehran would require guarantees against further military attacks, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for war-related damage.Similarly, on November 2, 2026, Iranian Army spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia <a href="https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/11/02/3737995/iran-s-response-to-fresh-aggression-could-extend-beyond-west-asia-army-spokesman" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">warned</a> that any renewed military aggression against Iran could extend the confrontation beyond the Middle East. He emphasized that Iran’s armed forces had strengthened their operational readiness and expanded their database of U.S. and Israeli military targets.Alongside the increasingly forceful military warnings, concerns are growing within Iranian political circles about the consequences of another round of military conflict. Several political figures have called for prioritizing the country’s survival and avoiding the risks of another war. They have also urged a reassessment of certain elements of Iran’s foreign policy, including its approach to the nuclear issue, as a way of easing tensions with the United States.In this context, Hossein Marashi, secretary-general of the Executives of Construction Party, <a href="https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2287288/%D8%A8%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%B4%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D9%81%D8%B8-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%AA%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%BA%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B2%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%AD%D9%81%D8%B8-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">stated</a> that "under no circumstances should we expose Iran and the Islamic Republic to a real threat." He added that "Iran is more important than any other issue—more important than enrichment and more important than preserving nuclear achievements."&nbsp;Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also called for a shift in Iran’s perception of its neighbors, urging Tehran to view them as opportunities for cooperation and mutual benefit rather than sources of threat. He pointed to <a href="https://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/1398188/%D8%A2%D9%82%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B8%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%81-%DA%86%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B3-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%88-%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%AA-%D9%86%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AE-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%DA%A9%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%82-%D8%AA%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%85" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">China’s example</a> of "ending a century of humiliation and engaging in negotiations with the United States." His remarks underscored the need to avoid another war and instead pursue negotiations with Washington to reach an agreement that would bring an end to the conflict.Notably, these warnings come amid growing concerns that military operations between Iran and the United States could resume, potentially drawing Israel back into the conflict. Mediation efforts by countries such as Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, and Russia have run into obstacles as disagreements between Tehran and Washington have widened. The main points of contention include Iran’s nuclear program, threats to commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, and the release of Iranian funds frozen abroad. These disagreements have led both sides to dig in their heels and resist offering any concessions that could help pave the way for an agreement to end the war.Key FactorsWarnings by numerous Iranian politicians about the potential consequences of a third war appear to be driven by four main factors:1. The Risk of More Powerful Strikes Against Iran: Those advocating efforts to reduce the likelihood of another war believe that future U.S. or Israeli military strikes against Iran could be considerably more destructive than those carried out during the June 2025 and February 2026 wars.This assessment is based on the perception that Washington now regards its previous military operations as insufficient to achieve its stated objectives. Although those strikes resulted in the assassination of senior figures in the first and second tiers of Iran’s leadership—including former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regular armed forces, and Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, as well as former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani—they failed to achieve the declared objectives of the war. These included dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and ending its support for regional proxies.Proponents of this view also argue that President Donald Trump’s recent threats must be taken seriously, particularly his warning that Iran must either "give the United States everything it wants or cease to exist." They interpret this statement as suggesting the possibility that any future military operation ordered by Trump could involve the deployment of new weapons or more intensive strikes against carefully selected high-value targets.2. Fears of Iran’s Disintegration and the Erosion of Domestic Control: Those expressing these concerns do not rule out the possibility that another war could lead to the disintegration of the Iranian state. Although they believe the wars of June 2025 and February 2026 failed to achieve the objectives set by the United States and Israel, they recognize that a similar outcome cannot be taken for granted in the event of a third war.Renewed large-scale military strikes against the Iranian regime could weaken its institutions and undermine its ability to maintain domestic control. This, in turn, might embolden armed groups representing different Iranian ethnic communities along the country’s borders to attempt to seize control over territory. Such a scenario could resemble the splintering that occurred in Syria and potentially mark the beginning of the end for the Iranian regime.Iran already faces a longstanding security vulnerability arising from the concentration of ethnic communities in its border regions and their ethnic ties with populations in neighboring countries.This concern may help explain Hossein Marashi’s warnings about the consequences of current policies and his insistence that preserving Iran should take precedence, even at the expense of what he described as the country’s "nuclear achievements."&nbsp;3. Concerns About the Consequences of Prolonged Wartime Conditions: The war has subjected Iran to exceptional military, economic, and security conditions that its population may be unable to endure over the long term.The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf, which was introduced as part of Washington’s "economic ostracism" strategy beginning on August 24, 2026, has exacerbated Iran’s domestic economic crisis. Combined with the strict enforcement of U.S. sanctions by the Treasury Department, these measures have reduced the population’s ability to obtain essential goods.According to some estimates, the basic monthly <a href="https://www.independentpersian.com/node/422649/%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF/%D8%B3%D9%82%D9%88%D8%B7-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B2%D8%AF-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%DB%B6%DB%B2-%D8%AF%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%9B-%DB%8C%DA%A9%E2%80%8C%D9%86%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D9%87-%D9%88-%DB%8C%DA%A9%E2%80%8C%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">minimum</a> wage for workers has fallen to $62, inflation has reached 90%, and the national currency has continued to depreciate, with the U.S. dollar reaching 270,000 tomans.At the same time, the Iranian government’s ability to secure alternative supply routes through land crossings with neighboring countries has declined, further limiting its capacity to mitigate the effects of sanctions and the blockade.These conditions could trigger protests on an unprecedented scale, posing a real threat to the regime’s political survival. Such protests could prove more difficult for the authorities to contain, potentially succeeding where previous protest movements had failed. 4. Concerns About Shifting Power Dynamics Within the Regime: The repeated warnings must also be understood in the context of the mounting concern within reformist and moderate factions about the growing influence of hardline principlists within the regime’s decision-making institutions. The two most recent wars have provided an opportunity for these hardline factions to consolidate their position.The consequences of another war might extend beyond reinforcing the current domestic political balance. A renewed conflict could encourage hardliners to push reformists and moderates out of decision-making positions in upcoming political contests.Reports from Iran indicate that prominent hardline figures have begun preparing for the next presidential election. One example is Tehran Mayor <a href="https://donya-e-eqtesad.com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-62/4300243-%D9%BE%D8%B4%D8%AA-%D9%BE%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%AE%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%B2%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AE%DB%8C%D8%B2-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Alireza Zakani</a>, who withdrew from the 2021 presidential race in favor of former President Ebrahim Raisi and from the 2024 race in favor of fellow hardline candidates Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili.However, Zakani may not be inclined to bow out again in the next election, particularly if the principlist camp seeks to prevent President Masoud Pezeshkian from securing another term in the presidential election scheduled for 2028.Meanwhile, 35 principlist members of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly—including Amir Hossein Sabeti, Ali Khazarian, Kamran Ghazanfari, and Mahmoud Nabavian—are <a href="https://donya-e-eqtesad.com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-62/4302088-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D9%86%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%DA%86%DB%8C" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">seeking</a> to initiate no-confidence proceedings against several ministers in Pezeshkian’s government, despite the exceptional circumstances Iran is facing amid the ongoing state of war.Some of these lawmakers have prepared a motion of no confidence against Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, accusing him of going beyond the scope of his mandate during his participation in the September 2026 meetings of the United Nations General Assembly. Those meetings included indirect contacts, facilitated by Qatar, with officials in the U.S. administration, including President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.ConclusionIran’s domestic political landscape reflects two competing approaches to the prospect of renewed confrontation with the United States and Israel.The first favors an escalatory posture, emphasizing military readiness and threatening retaliation against any new attack. This approach remains more prominent in official statements and military rhetoric.The second prioritizes preserving the state and avoiding another war through renewed negotiations and a reassessment of certain domestic and foreign policy positions. However, its advocates remain less visible and influential in Iran’s domestic political landscape.&nbsp;Nevertheless, support for this second approach could grow in the coming period, especially in light of the impact of the war on Iran and the military, economic, and political challenges it has exposed. The possibility of renewed domestic protests amid deteriorating economic and social conditions could further strengthen calls for a change of course.Continued criticism of the regime’s policies may also contribute to this trend, particularly criticism of its persistent support for regional proxies at the expense of addressing Iran’s mounting domestic problems.

Why Are Warnings of Renewed Confrontation with the United States Growing in Iran?