Dr. Muhammad Abbas Naji‏‏

The Iranian regime is currently facing one of its toughest challenges in over four decades. Despite enduring many external crises since 1979, the current one may be the most significant threat to its rule. Following the assassination of Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli attack on southern Beirut on September 28, 2024, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei denied that this would impact Hezbollah's unity. However, fears still linger in the Iranian regime towards the repercussions of this operation especially amid security infiltrations of Iran’s proxies, which resulted in the assassination of Hamas' political chief Ismail Haniyeh in an Iranian Revolutionary Guard facility, on the 31st of July 2024.

How Is Iran Approaching the Post-Lebanon War Phase?

Precarious Paths:

Despite more than three months having passed since the crash of the helicopter carrying former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on May 19, 2024, which resulted in his death along with seven others, including former Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the debate surrounding the cause of the incident remains ongoing. This has prompted Iranian authorities to repeatedly affirm that the crash was due to bad weather conditions encountered by the helicopter while returning from East Azerbaijan Province. According to the final report issued by a special investigative body on September 1, 2024, a sudden appearance of a dense, rising fog in front of the helicopter led to its collision with a mountain, causing it to crash and the victims' bodies to burn.

Why Does the Raisi Crash Controversy Persist?

Power Struggle:

China has appeared in search engines frequently over the last two years, which may not be new or surprising, especially since China is an economic giant and major international trade partner. However, what is new is that this emergence stems not only from this strength or partnership, but also from the new role Beijing has begun to play, which has taken on a political nature, at least in its main description.

How Does China's Leadership View Regional and International Crises?

Trade Concerns:

Iran does not seem to be in a hurry in the nuclear negotiations, despite all the pressure and criticism it faces from international powers and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which held its Board of Governors meeting on September 12-16. Iran is still dealing with the negotiations in a way that suggests it does not believe they have reached their end, and that there is still room to rely on the factor of time to obtain more benefits and privileges that could be included in any possible nuclear deal. The main line of thought in Tehran still bets that the arrival of winter will weaken the West’s position and strengthen Iran’s position in the negotiations, especially given the continued escalatory measures taken by Russia regarding energy supplies to European countries. But a trend is gradually emerging that views relying on the impact of winter’s arrival as a risk that could ultimately have serious consequences for Tehran’s interests and calculations. In this context, the Iranian "reformist" writer Abbas Abdi warned—in an article published in the Etemad Newspaper on September 11 under the title "Who is Responsible for the Nuclear Agreement?" —that "relying on the arrival of winter to change the calculations in Iran’s favor is a mirage." He called on President Ibrahim Raisi to settle the negotiations and reach a deal.

Why are Domestic Warnings about Iran’s Policy on the Nuclear Issue Increasing?

A Winter Mirage:

As part of the ongoing Astana Peace Talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Tehran on 19 July 2022 and meet with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts, Presidents Ebrahim Raisi and Recep Tayyib Erdogan, respectively. This marks the second meeting between Raisi and Putin in three weeks, as the two had just met on the sidelines of the Caspian Sea Summit in Ashgabat on 29 June 2022. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Turkey and met with Erdogan on the 28th.

What Does Iran Aim to Gain from Putin’s Visit to Tehran?

Tipping the Scales:

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has begun to mount a new campaign against former President Hassan Rouhani, whose second term in office ended on 3 August 2021. However, he continues to be involved in decision-making bodies, especially the Assembly of Experts. This is due to various factors, most importantly the renewed debate over which entity is responsible for bringing down the Ukrainian plane, as well as intensified efforts by opposition currents to get a nuclear deal in Vienna. There are also new factors that may come into play following Rouhani’s meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and as a result of the ongoing controversy regarding the Revolutionary Guard’s role in setting Iranian foreign policy. Finally, the Guard wants to send an implicit message to President Ebrahim Raisi that it is important to align with the Guard on both domestic and foreign policy.

Why is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Mounting a Campaign against Rouhani?

Settling Scores:

Iran’s agreement to resume nuclear negotiations in Vienna on 29 November 2021 has not eased the nagging anxieties of international powers concerned with those negotiations. These powers no longer see the simple act of setting a new date for the seventh round of negotiation as a good omen for reaching a deal that would ultimately reinforce the current nuclear agreement. Nor do they believe that it will avert the dangers of a new war breaking out in the region, given the persistent risks posed by Iran’s ongoing nuclear activity.

Why are international powers concerned about Iran’s stance in Vienna?

Sham Negotiation:

The Iraqi parliamentary elections held on October 10, 2021 have apparently not produced results convenient for Iran and have also sent the message that anti-Iran sentiment in Iraq is increasingly a factor on the political scene. Numerous Iranian analysts think that the Gulf states have gained new ground in Iraq at Iran’s expense, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Although Tehran’s allies have not left the political scene, the deterioration of their political influence – with its direct repercussions on their influence, as well as their poor chance of forming the three new authorities of the incoming government – means that Iran faces greater challenges in Iraq. Nevertheless, it still maintains an influence that cannot be ignored.

How is Iran Dealing with the Results of the Iraqi Elections?

New Variables:

After Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, chose Ahmad Vahidi (Ahmad Shah Cheraghi) as Interior Minister in his government and he won the confidence of the Islamic Shura Council (parliament) this past August, it was remarkable that the regime made two other decisions to elevate him within the structure of both security and military institutions, simultaneously. On September 9th, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a decision appointing Vahidi as Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Three days after that, Raisi issued a decision appointing Vahidi as head of the Internal Security Council with full powers, as the statement said.

Dr. Muhammad Abbas Naji‏‏

Dr. Muhammad Abbas Naji‏‏

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