Amr Abdelaty‏‏

Victory Coalition, led by former Iraqi Prime Minister, announced on June27, 2025 that it would withdraw its candidate from the parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11, 2025. This&nbsp;reflects a sign of a severe political crisis in the Iraqi political scene. Notably, this announcement coincided with the return of electoral boycotts in the Iraqi political arena, a trend adopted by several political groups recently. The most important of groups are the ‘’Sadrist Movement’’ and ‘’National Line movement’’ which is affiliated with the former Prime Minister Mustafa AL-Khadhimi. This undermines the public trust in the integrity of the electoral process , amid widespread allegations of vote-buying and exploitation of state institutions by specific political actors.&nbsp;In a bid to assure Iraqi voters, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani sought to highlight the integrity of election process and to prevent exploitation of state resources by some political actors,. However, these reassurances have not prevented the widespread waves of withdrawal from the upcoming elections, which could lead to a politically unstable and push the country toward deeper polarization and an intensifying political crisis.Withdrawing Actors Multiple Iraqi political forces have announced their withdrawal from the upcoming parliamentary elections. These include:1- Victory Alliance: It was the most recent force to announce its withdrawal from the elections on June 27, 2025. Haider al-Abadi, the leader of the alliance, confirmed that he will not field any candidates affiliated with him, due to what he described as the dominance of political money and the absence of procedures to prevent against exploitation of state resources. 2- The Shiite National Movement: On March 28,2025 the leader of Sadrist Movement Moqtada al-Sadr, who recently renamed it to the Shiite National Movement, announced that he will not take part in the next parliamentary elections, and urged his supporters not to vote, saying that everybody should know that as long as corruption exists, he will not participate in this unreliable elections. He deemed it as disregarding of &nbsp;the people’s will and only focused on the parties’ own interests. It’s worth mentioning that in 2021 Moqtada al-Sadr won 73 seats in the Iraqi parliamentary elections from the total of 329 seats. 3- Nation Line Movement: In May 2025, the movement announced that it would not take a part in the next elections. Also, it will not enter any political or electoral alliance, blaming political actors for repeating the same failures since 2003.4- Tawazon Party: In June 26,2025 Tawazon announced its withdrawal from the elections process. In early June 2025, the party’s general secretary, Manhal al-Gharir encouraged his supporters not to participate in the upcoming elections. He noted that the electoral process, according to the status quo, has lost its true ability to bring about the desired change.5- Independent Candidates: In a similar vein, independent figures and leaders from other political forces, as well as candidates within major alliances such as "Al-Azm Alliance" led by Muthanna al-Samarrai, have announced their withdrawal. Additionally, Mohammed Sahib al-Daraji, an advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister and affiliated with the "Reconstruction and Development" alliance led by al-Sudani, also announced his withdrawal from the elections.Key Considerations The decision of several political forces to withdraw from the Iraqi electoral scene outlines a set of considerations, as follows:1- The Influence of Political Financing on the Electoral Process: Despite the varying motivations behind the withdrawal of Iraqi political forces from the upcoming electoral scene, they all share a fundamental concern the dominance of political money. This includes the lack of deterrent measures against manipulation and exploitation of state resources, as well as the absence of serious indicators suggesting the possibility of real change through these elections. According to many Iraqi assessments, the upcoming elections will be nothing more than a formality. This perception is reinforced by reports of vote-buying and the sale of voter cards by influential parties inside Iraq, prompting the Independent High Electoral Commission to issue a warning that anyone involved in the buying or selling of electoral cards will be punished.2- The Absence of Security Due to the Spread of Illegal Weapons: The withdrawal of some political forces is also attributed to the absence of a secure environment for elections, especially given the widespread presence of weapons outside state control. Some Iraqi parties still retain armed wings, undermining the principle of democratic competition and turning elections into displays of power rather than contests over political programs. There are serious concerns among various Iraqi political actors particularly emerging forces that armed factions could influence the electoral process and voter will, especially since many of these factions have candidates running in all Iraqi provinces.&nbsp;3- Absence of Legal Safeguards to Regulate the Electoral Process: According to several analyses, the successive withdrawals from Iraq's upcoming elections are rooted in the lack of a fair legal environment, especially as the Independent High Electoral Commission remains unreformed. This raises questions about its ability to manage the electoral process. Furthermore, the resignation of six judges from the Supreme Federal Court Iraq’s highest constitutional authority threatens the possibility of holding the parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2025, as there may not be sufficient legal coverage to ratify the results.4- The Challenge of Achieving Consensus within Major Political Coalitions: There are growing tensions within Iraq’s major political coalitions, both Shiite and Sunni. This is evident in the fragmentation of the "Coordination Framework", which has splintered into 10 electoral alliances reflecting a power struggle over leadership within the Shiite political sphere. New leaders are emerging at the expense of traditional figures. Sunni forces are similarly fragmented, particularly due to diverging positions between the Progress Party and other alliances still in the process of formation.5- Divisions over the Single Constituency Electoral Law: Some political forces are boycotting the upcoming elections due to their opposition to the electoral law, which relies on a single-district system for each province and implements the proportional "Sainte-Lague" method with a 1.7 electoral quotient. This system interests the large bloc and traditional parties at the expense of independent and emerging political forces.Unintended ConsequencesIn conclusion, the withdrawal and boycott of these elections by the Sadrist movement and other political forces may lead to adverse repercussions for Iraq’s political landscape. Among these is the potential reshaping of the political map forming the government, as the withdrawal could provide greater opportunity for pro-Iranian parties and militias to win more seats. This may also lead to a significant decline in voter turnout, the re-emergence of political tensions, and increased political and popular mobilization all of which could obstruct the government’s ability to address urgent issues, particularly those related to the economy, living conditions, corruption, and Iraq's foreign policy directions.

Understanding the Drivers of Mass Withdrawals from the Upcoming Iraqi Elections