Amr Abdelaty‏‏

At the start of his second term in the White House, President Donald Trump’s policies toward Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine underwent significant changes during the first six months. Initially, Trump adopted a conciliatory approach toward Moscow, offering major concessions to Russian President Vladimir Putin. These included acknowledging Moscow’s control over parts of Ukraine, excluding Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, and easing U.S. sanctions on Russia. Some analyses even suggested that Trump explored the possibility of officially recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which it had seized in 2014—marking a clear departure from the previous Democratic administration's hardline stance on Moscow. However, with the passage of time and the increasing criticism of European allies and diplomats, Donald Trump began to gradually change his foreign policies towards Russia.

Why has Trump pivoted from rapprochement to deterrence toward Moscow?

Policy Shift:

Amid accelerating geopolitical shifts and intensifying global competition on the African continent, the United States is seeking to restructure its military presence in Africa in a way that reflects a fundamental change in its defense policy priorities. Washington is no longer focused on traditional approaches centered on promoting good governance and development, especially under President Donald Trump’s administration, which prioritizes domestic security and reducing global military deployments. Instead, the U.S. is moving toward building security partnerships based on burden-sharing and empowering local militaries to rely on their own capabilities. This new strategy comes at a time of rising terrorist threats and growing Chinese and Russian influence in the vacuum left by Washington’s retrenchment.

Why Washington is Restructuring its Military Presence in Africa

Fragile Security:

The Biden administration has clearly sided with Israel and its right to defend itself since the beginning of the al-Aqsa Flood operation that Hamas launched against settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip. The US position supports Israel’s right to eradicate Palestinian militant factions in Gaza. Statements by US officials in support of the Israeli military operations, which have caused a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, were met with anger by the Arab street and by pushback both at home and abroad. Many US reports indicate that the Biden administration is pressuring Tel Aviv to not expand military operations in order to contain regional and international fallout. The US administration also wants to mitigate domestic repercussions of the conflict as the November 2024 presidential election approaches, since this could have a significant impact on Biden’s chances of winning a second term.

Repercussions of the Israeli War on Gaza for US Interests in the Middle East

Escalating Stakes:

Former US President Donald Trump traveled from Florida to New York on Monday 3 April, where he was scheduled to appear in court on Tuesday after a grand jury in Manhattan indicted him following investigations into a case related to $130,000 in "hush money" paid to the adult film star Stormy Daniels leading up to the 2016 presidential elections. The payment aimed to cover up Daniels’ alleged affair with Trump. Trump is the first current or former US president to face criminal changes.

Understanding the Criminal Charges Against Trump

The First Indictment:

The Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military capabilities, released in November 2021 under the title "Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China," has sparked controversy in the US. The report forecasts a growth in China’s nuclear capabilities over the next decade. This comes amid the Biden Administration’s efforts to review US nuclear strategy and global concerns about China’s military modernization, especially after the Chinese Armed Forces announced that they have developed a hypersonic missile that can fly at five times the speed of sound and can be controlled remotely. In response to China’s growing military capabilities and its progress in developing fast-moving missiles as well as nuclear warheads, Mark Milley US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, "We’re witnessing, in my view, we’re witnessing one of the largest shifts in global geostrategic power that the world has witnessed," describing this test as "very concerning" and "very close to the Sputnik Moment" which ignited the space race between the US and the USSR during the cold war.

How Will Washington Deal with China’s Growing Nuclear Capabilities?

Nuclear Deterrence:

As much as many Republican and Democratic leaders hope that the influence of former President Donald Trump will recede, the latter still enjoys significant political sway in the US. Trump’s popularity has declined in the wake of his loss in the 2020 presidential election and due to his absence from social media platforms, such as Facebook and Twitter, after expressing support for the protestors who stormed Capitol Hill on 6 January 2021. However, his fame is expected to bounce back if he runs for president in 2024, which has not yet been officially announced, as per his senior advisors’ request.

The Complex Chance Behind the Former President’s New White House Bid

Trump’s Comeback:

US President Joe Biden met with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Rome on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in late October 2021, at a tense time in the relations between the two NATO member countries. Although Biden stressed the importance of the defense partnership between the two countries and Ankara’s importance to the US as a NATO member, US-Turkish relations are going through a crisis in light of the US president highlighting Washington’s concerns about Ankara possessing the Russian S-400 missile defense system.

How Does the United States Manage Contentious Issues with Turkey?

Crisis of Confidence:

Victory Coalition, led by former Iraqi Prime Minister, announced on June27, 2025 that it would withdraw its candidate from the parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11, 2025. This reflects a sign of a severe political crisis in the Iraqi political scene. Notably, this announcement coincided with the return of electoral boycotts in the Iraqi political arena, a trend adopted by several political groups recently. The most important of groups are the ‘’Sadrist Movement’’ and ‘’National Line movement’’ which is affiliated with the former Prime Minister Mustafa AL-Khadhimi. This undermines the public trust in the integrity of the electoral process , amid widespread allegations of vote-buying and exploitation of state institutions by specific political actors.

Understanding the Drivers of Mass Withdrawals from the Upcoming Iraqi Elections

Confidence Crisis:

Yasmin Mahmoud‏‏

On 4 February, 2021, United States (US) President Joe Biden delivered his first speech on American foreign policy. Notably, he was keen to deliver the speech from State Department headquarters, in the presence of Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. In the speech, Biden raised the slogan "America is back," emphasizing the return of American diplomacy and pointing to the strong relationship between foreign policy and the domestic situation. The most prominent foreign policy issues addressed in the American president’s speech can be addressed as follows: 

Amr Abdelaty‏‏

Amr Abdelaty‏‏

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