Dr. Mohamed Abdallah Younes‏‏

Amidst the rapid shifts taking place in the world today, and what often seems like an unprecedented pace of change, the past raises its head again to remind us how it will always shape the present and future. Analysts are preoccupied with forecasting emerging trends and tracking new phenomena in the international sphere. Meanwhile, the renewed energy of certain currents and figures who had temporarily receded into the background—like the return of Donald Trump as a serious contender for the White House, and the resurgence of the far right and populism in the West— remind us that we cannot understand contemporary shifts without grappling with the legacies of the past.&nbsp;This relates to regional and international conflicts that seem to go through interminable cycles of heating up and cooling down without any definite end to this process. There are numerous instances of this in various regions of the world.Summoning up the past has become a growing trend in academic and scholarly literature as a framework for explaining very complex issues that shape the global landscape. Whether we are talking about geopolitical disputes between major powers, ethnic or sectarian conflicts, or crises of identity and societal integration, the roots of these issues run deep into the sediment of the past. These crises draw their momentum from accumulations of collective memory and the historical experiences of nations and peoples.Invoking Historical PerspectivesLooking back in history is a powerful analytical tool to understand the paradoxes inherent in current transformations. How can we explain why waves of astounding technological progress are happening at the same time as cultural closedness and identity-based intolerance? How can we understand the continuation of longstanding regional conflicts in an age of connectedness and universal interdependence? The past sheds light on deep structural tensions that govern the behavior of societies and states. Such questions cannot be answered with linear logic and rationality, but looking into history can be productive from a variety of angles, including in order to:1. Explain major shifts: Drawing upon history to analyze international relations is not limited to examining elements of continuity and repetition, but also includes understanding mechanisms of change and transformation. Over the last century, the international order has witnessed a series of violent transitions between unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar systems, along with the outbreak of world wars, the collapse of great empires, and radical changes in the global political landscape.In each transitional stage, international actors rely—consciously or unconsciously—on their repositories of experience and lessons learned from key historical moments. This can be in order to reproduce prevailing patterns, or to overcome these patterns and adjust to new circumstances. This is where the role of historical analysis comes in—to understand the motives and mechanisms behind these shifts, and how the interplay between circumstantial and structural factors shapes elements of the international order at each stage.By following the historical trajectory of change, we can extract general models and patterns that can help us to understand and explain current and future transformations. It also enables us to determine the catalysts for and obstacles to change, and how these factors have been dealt with in different contexts. Turning back to history does not mean surrendering to the inevitability of repeating the past, but rather offer a tool to access accumulated wisdom that enables us to create a better future.2. Spur international action: The effect of history on international relations goes beyond providing temporal context for developments taking place. History also serves as a catalyst and key driver in dynamics between countries, because the historical memory of nations, including their psychological, emotional, and ideological legacies, often creates the foundation upon which perceptions and stances towards the self and other are built. This in turn has implications for the nature of bilateral relations, regional alliances, and strategic stances of different countries.For example, we cannot understand the ongoing tensions between Japan and South Korea without returning to the roots of the conflict in Japanese colonial rule in the Korean peninsula, and the ways that this shaped collective consciousness. History is not a static setting for international relations, but rather plays an active role in shaping dynamics between countries, whether towards cooperation and integration, or towards conflict and competition.3. Strengthen legitimacy of policies: Countries usually draw upon specific historical events to justify their foreign policies and bolster the legitimacy of their stances on international affairs. For example, Russia justified its military intervention in Ukraine by drawing on historical and cultural linkages and an overarching historical narrative about bilateral ties. Meanwhile, China has defended its sovereignty in the South China Sea by describing it presence there as an historical right.4. Soft power and public diplomacy: Countries strive to utilize their historical and civilizational legacies as a source of gravity and influence in their regional and international contexts. Through casting their values and achievements as grounded in history, countries aim to bolster their image and win the sympathy and support of global public opinion. This happens in the context of great power rivalries over hosting major sports or cultural events, or in diplomatic efforts to revive historic trade routes like the Silk Road.5. Learn historical lessons: History is a rich repository of experience and knowledge that can help in formulating foreign policy and managing international crises. By studying the successes and failures of the past, decision-makers can draw necessary lessons on the development of decision-making processes and avoid repeating the same mistakes. For example, many foreign ministers and think tanks are interested in historical analyses and applying past models to contemporary issues.6. Understand protracted conflicts: Some contemporary international conflicts are extensions of longstanding historical disputes, the roots of which were never fully addressed. This can make history a barrier to resolving these conflicts, since it complicates disputed rights, mutual grievances, and conflicting narratives. For example, the India-Pakistan dispute over the Kashmir region can be traced back to the legacy of British occupation, and the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent.Dismantling Past Landscapes&nbsp;History was never a straight line with a steady rhythm, but rather a winding path of sudden shifts, revolutionary leaps, and painful setbacks. We must therefore be careful not to talk about the "end of history," the "clash of civilizations," or any such definitive prophecies about the fate of humankind. We need to recognize that the future is not necessarily subject to such rigid inevitabilities, but rather is the product of a complex and longstanding interplay between the past legacies, present needs, and future horizons.At its essence, history is a record of paradoxes and contradictions, in which progress and decline, cooperation and conflict, unity and fragmentation, all coexist at the same time. This is clearly reflected in the trajectory of international relations, which constantly oscillates between cycles of stability and of unrest, of domination and pluralism, of opening and closure. Perhaps the current historical moment is most defined by the rapid pace of these changes, and the overlap between them, which makes understanding general trends and their future ramifications a very difficult challenge indeed.However, despite the dialectical nature of history, there are concrete lessons and truths that we can draw from history’s long processes, which serve as a compass to guide humanity towards the future. One of these lessons is that cooperation and integration between countries and nations is the only path to confront shared challenges that threaten our collective existence, such as destructive wars, lethal pandemics, environmental disasters, extremism, and terrorism. History tells us that when countries turn inwards, and turn away from our shared human destiny, they fall victim to conflict and unrest that sweep away civilizational achievements built by successive generations. On the other hand, the brightest eras in human history have been those in which a spirit of tolerance, openness, and cultural and intellectual cross-pollination between civilizations and societies prevailed.Looking AheadIn this regard, the newest issue of the State of World examines this interplay between the past, present, and future. The main article in this issue uses historically-grounded concepts to examine the effects of regional security challenges on prospects for Asian ascendance. These include theories on power shifts and regional security systems. These expert analyses tie the resurgence of the far right and populism in the West back to their deep historical roots and ongoing volatility in democratic systems.The issue also addresses a number of key questions such as "Who will the next US president be?" and "What does the president of Argentina want?" in addition to examining the effects of BRICS on international policy and the future of the Belt and Road Initiative.InterRegional’s analyses in this issue shed light on a set of notable phenomena and structural shifts in the international order and its dynamics. At the same time that cross-border smuggling networks for advanced technologies continue to expand and pose a threat to strategic global stability, we also can see that international conflict over the "commons," such as cyberspace or waterways, has become a new flashpoint. Separatist regions are also playing a growing role in international relations, and pose a challenge to principles of national sovereignty and unity.With regard to regional balances of power, this issue examines shifts in French influence over the African continent and the geostrategic ramifications of these changes. The issue considers dimensions of escalating international competition over establishing and operating submarine cable networks, which serve as the economic and communications lifelines of the twenty-first century. With regard to great power dynamics, the issue discusses a number of features of polar warfare, that is, conflict emerging in the north pole region. It also examines growing interest on the part of these powers in using hybrid space in strategic conflict.As part of global interest in establishing new passageways and corridors for international trade, this issue presents the drivers and consequences of the "Middle Corridor," which has various economic and political implications for the Middle East and the global trade landscape.On a related note, the sections on global concepts outlines a new set of terminologies that have begun to take shape in the international relations lexicon. These terms include "de-risking," and its repercussions for financial and economic dynamics between countries, as well as the "tech-clash," which refers to the phenomenon of heightened conflict between countries and huge technology companies. This section also sheds light on the idea of "spheres of influence," and the extent to which this term’s connotations have changed in light of shifts in the distribution of power within the current international order.In the political sphere, the "Eye on the World" section analyzes the resurgence of the far right and its impacts on Western policymaking. Meanwhile, "Eye on the Region" tracks the characteristics of the regional war in the Middle East and its implications for stability and security in this pivotal part of the world.Finally, with regard to looking forwards to the future, another section of this issue discusses the growing role of private security companies as international actors with complex influence across political, economic, security, legal, and ethical spheres.Ultimately, developing an awareness of history does not mean surrendering to the power of the past, but rather provides an opportunity to overcome its problematic legacies and to learn from its lessons to build a better future. If countries and societies absorb these historical lessons, they will find ways to live with the past legacies and repair collective memory. Only then can nations and peoples can look to the future, thus reconciled with their past, and deal with current challenges in a balanced way.In the words of British historian Arnold Toynbee, "As human beings, we are endowed with this freedom of choice, and we cannot shuffle off our responsibility." Countries and societies must realize their fate does not lie in the hands of inevitable law, but rather is formed by political decisions made in the present, in light of what has been learned from the wisdom of the past, and what can be seen of the future.&nbsp;

How Will Temporal Geographies Affect International Relations?