Abdullah Jamal‏‏

&nbsp;During her weekly press conference on 22 November 2023, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the United States (US) Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas, of interfering in the domestic affairs of Bangladesh, which is set to hold parliamentary elections on 7 January 2024. The accusations came as Moscow and Washington compete to boost their influence in the South Asian country, where Zakharova said the US ambassador met with a high-level representative of the local opposition in late October. She said the two had discussed plans to organize mass protests against the Bangladeshi government, since 2009 headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has not been on good terms with Washington regarding the issue of human rights and detention. Bangladesh has been seeing political unrest since October, with violence and blockades throughout November, leading to deaths across the country and the arrest of several opposition leaders. Signs of CompetitionMultiple indicators explain Moscow and Washington’s rivalry in Bangladesh, namely:1. Debate over the role of foreign diplomatic missions in domestic issues: This was not the first time foreign missions have interfered in Dhaka’s domestic affairs. In December 2022, Bangladesh was pivotal in launching a war of words between Moscow and Washington over the same issues. The US ambassador paid a visit on 14 December 2022 to the house of a missing leader of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party who was allegedly the victim of enforced disappearance in 2013. Prior to that, he visited the chair of the Bangladesh Election Commission in June 2022, calling on him to hold transparent elections in the country. Not only this, but Moscow said in December 2022 that the British and German diplomatic missions had engaged in similar activities in Dhaka, making public recommendations to local authorities regarding transparency and inclusiveness in the run-up to elections scheduled for January 2024. 2. Establishing a Russian-funded nuclear power plant: Moscow aims to boost its influence in Bangladesh by sponsoring a nuclear energy project. It is footing the bill for 90% of the $12.65-billion project, which is likely to make Bangladesh a member of the nuclear club of countries that exploit peaceful nuclear energy, currently including only around 30 countries around the world. On 5 October 2023, Bangladesh received the first shipment of uranium from Russia to fuel the county’s sole nuclear power plant during a ceremony attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin—via video—and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This points to the importance of the project for Putin in terms of strengthening his country’s influence in Bangladesh. 3. International diplomatic activity in Bangladesh: The Bangladeshi capital has been amassing multiple diplomatic visits at different levels of late. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Dhaka on 7 September 2023, as the first Russian foreign minister to visit the country since its 1971 independence. His visit came after he attended the East Asia Summit in Jakarta, in a sign of Bangladesh’s current importance to Moscow. Just two days later, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional Security in the US State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, Mira Resnick, headed to Dhaka to meet with Director-General of the North America Department at the Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Khandaker Masood Alam. The two met to discuss ways to expand the scope of the countries’ partnerships in different fields. Not only that, but French President Emmanuel Macron arrived on 10 September 2023—the first French premier to visit the South Asian country in 33 years—on a visit aimed at consolidating France’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific Region. 4. Trading accusations of interference in Bangladesh: Bangladesh has recently become the focus of a war of words and mutual accusations between Moscow and Washington. Moscow has accused Washington of blatant interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs, and even accused it of helping the US envoy organize anti-government marches. Both Moscow and Beijing also warn against any US interference in the political process in Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Washington has not ignored Russia’s accusations. Its response came swiftly, issued hours after the Russian embassy in Dhaka updated its website to include details of the foreign ministry spokesperson’s November 22 remarks in Moscow. The US State Department spokesperson in Washington accused Moscow of "deliberate distortion" of its foreign policy, especially regarding the upcoming elections in Bangladesh and the US ambassador’s meetings with the opposition there. 5. Dhaka’s efforts to adhere to a policy of balance: Among the signs of competition between Moscow and Washington over Bangladesh is the latter’s attempt to strike a balance in its relations with the two countries. The latest sign of this was the response by Foreign Secretary Masoud Bin Momen, who described statements by Moscow and Washington regarding his country as "unjustified." Dhaka is not likely to risk its economic relations with either of the two countries. Bangladesh is Russia’s second-largest trade partner in South Asia, after India. In 2021, bilateral trade between Bangladesh and Russia reached about $3 billion. The same year, Bangladesh exported $8.3 billion of goods to the US, in addition to $2.35 billion in imports. US companies are also among the largest foreign investors in the country. 6. US policy in the Indo-Pacific: Washington is adopting a clear policy in the Indo-Pacific region, including in Bangladesh, aimed at promoting its interests in the region. Moscow has accused this strategy of being based on deterring China and isolating Russia in the region. This enhances competition over Bangladesh between other parties, including Moscow and Washington, but also Europe and China. Europe is following the same course as the US, benefiting from near-total regional consensus. Main DriversThere are multiple motivators and drivers behind Moscow and Washington’s approaches to competition over Bangladesh, most prominently:1. Dhaka’s growing geopolitical importance: Bangladesh’s geopolitical influence is growing. It is now an important ally of Russia, helping it evade Western sanctions. At the same time, Bangladesh is particularly important to US decision-makers in the new strategy towards the Indo-Pacific, given its proximity to islands in the Indian Ocean. It also overlooks the Bay of Bengal—one of the most important international sea crossings in the Indo-Pacific. Washington is also trying hard to end Bangladesh’s policy of neutrality, in order to successfully isolate Moscow and undermine all means of evading Western sanctions. 2. Bangladesh’s growing economic importance: The economic factor is no less important than Bangladesh’s geopolitical stance. Moscow, Washington, and Paris each represent vital markets for Bangladeshi products, including ready-made garments that are one of the mainstays of Dhaka’s economy. Dhaka is also a major exporter in the seed and grain market. Bangladesh’s seed market is expected to grow from $245 million in 2023 to $305 million by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% over the forecast period (2023-2028). This is because Bangladesh is an important global producer of various agricultural products, such as rice, wheat, corn, legumes, vegetables, fruits, meat, fish, marine products, and dairy products. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)—in its latest report on the country published on 25 July 2023—estimated rice production in Bangladesh for the 2022/2023 season at around 35.6 million tons. This is a large volume, especially because heavy rains and flash floods destroyed rice fields in the northern and northeastern US in June 2022. The volume of Bangladesh’s wheat and corn production is also expected to increase during the coming season. Bangladeshi labor also has major global importance. Bangladesh ranks eighth globally in the inflow of remittances from workers abroad. 3. Bangladesh’s important role in driving future gas growth: The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that, with gas demand peaking in European and North American markets, countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Thailand stand poised to lead most growth in gas consumption. Bangladesh is among a number of developing countries in Asia and beyond that have bet heavily on natural gas as a reliable, and more sustainable, alternative to coal or oil. The Global Energy Monitor estimates that countries in South and Southeast Asia, including Bangladesh, plan to increase their gas-fired power generation capacity to more than 50% of the total sources of generated energy over the next few years. 4. Dhaka’s efforts to play a role in global transformations: Dhaka’s role in global transformations is likely to grow through its relations with Moscow and Beijing. The most prominent signs of this appeared in its application for accession to the BRICS group. This past June, Russia’s foreign ministry welcomed Bangladesh’s application. Although Dhaka has yet to join, it is likely to do so in the coming period, as its accession could have positive impacts, at least for the most powerful members of the group: Russia and China. This comes in the context of the two countries’ efforts to launch a parallel alliance to Western powers. Bloomberg has said that BRICS is likely to rival the global system led by the Group of Seven (G7). 5. Repercussions of a tense electoral season for Bangladesh: Some estimates predict that Dhaka will witness an extremely tense election season, with the likelihood of military intervention subject to increase if the government proves unable to control large-scale potential unrest. While military intervention may bring about short-term stability, it would also exacerbate uncertainty about the future of democracy in Bangladesh. Therefore, the issue of Bangladesh’s elections has become the focus of Moscow and Washington’s attention. This increase may grow during the coming period. Washington is putting strong pressure on Hasina’s government to ensure free and fair elections, and to address mounting concerns about human rights in the country. Moscow, meanwhile, is among the few countries that support the current government, and criticizes Western interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. In conclusion: Despite efforts by the West, particularly Washington, to distance Bangladesh from its policy of neutrality, it is not likely—at least in the near term—that the government in Dhaka will follow a policy that does not strike a balance in its relations with Moscow and Washington, especially as the upcoming elections draw near. Dhaka is in dire need of Moscow’s assistance as an important ally to ensure victory over the Washington-backed opposition. However, that does not mean that Dhaka will change its alliances with the West. Washington is one of its most important trade partners.&nbsp;

Why is Russo-American Rivalry Escalating in Bangladesh?