Dr. Mahmoud Zakaria‏‏

Relations between Morocco and South Africa have been increasingly unstable and riven with tensions of late. This has been demonstrated in several incidents, most recently a showdown over the presidency of the United Nations Human Rights Council, for which elections were held on January 10. South Africa had claimed that Morocco’s human rights record disqualified it for the role, while Morocco accused South Africa of obstructing efforts to fill the position. The election resulted in Morocco assuming the Council’s presidency for 2024, with its ambassador Omar Zniber receiving 30 votes against 17 for the South African candidate. Yet there are many other aspects to the deepening confrontation between the two countries, with a number of potential consequences.Political CrisisThere are several dimensions to the recent escalation of political tensions between Morocco and South Africa:1. Conflict over the presidency of the UN Human Rights Council: Each party had made determined efforts to assume the role for 2024, in the context of a vacuum. The position had been left empty, for the second time since the body was established in 2006. The showdown coincided with a public spat within the African Group, whose turn it was to fill the position. Unable to agree on a single candidate, the group held a secret ballot in Geneva on January 10 to choose which country would fill the role. Morocco won, with 30 nations voting for its candidate, Omar Zniber, who has held the position of Permanent Representative of Morocco to the United Nations Office in Geneva since 2018. The South African candidate, Pretoria’s ambassador to the United Nations Mxolisi Nkosi, received 17 votes.2. South Africa accusing Morocco of failing to respect human rights principles: The contest for the Council’s presidency laid bare major differences between the two sides. Nkosi said that electing Morocco to head the Council would undermine its legitimacy, arguing that Morocco commits human rights violations in a way that conflicts with the Council’s purpose, while South Africa’s historical record in defeating apartheid should make it a favorite for the presidency. Morocco argued that Zniber had received the backing of the African Union months ago, as Morocco had been the only candidate. It also argued that it is a law-abiding country that has achieved great progress in human rights, and accused South Africa and certain other African countries of obstructing its efforts to assume the presidency of the Council.It is worth noting that the Human Rights Council is an intergovernmental body responsible for strengthening, promoting and protecting human rights all around the world. It is also mandated to investigate rights violations and issue recommendations on them, and holds discussions on the full range of human rights issues and situations throughout the year. Its membership includes 47 countries, and it meets at the UN headquarters in Geneva.3. Conflicting positions on the issue of Western Sahara: This has been one of the most prominent points of disagreement between them since the turn of the millennium. While the ruling regime in South Africa supports the Polisario Front, which wants a referendum to decide the fate of the region, Morocco rejects this and wants to grant the region autonomy, while retaining sovereignty over it. This disparity caused the two sides to sever diplomatic relations in 2004 after then-South African President Thabo Mbeki formally recognized the territory’s independence.The countries had no bilateral relations for 13 years, until they finally agreed to normalize their ties during a meeting between Morocco’s King Mohammed VI and South Africa’s then-President Jacob Zuma, on the side-lines of the African Union – European Union summit in the Ivory Coast in November 2017. The two states also agreed to raise the level of diplomatic representation between them, each appointing an ambassador to the other’s capital.Indeed, Morocco appointed Youssef Amrani as its ambassador to South Africa in 2018. He had previously been assigned an official mission by the Royal Palace, and had worked as Minister-Delegate in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Undersecretary of the Ministry, and Ambassador to several countries in Latin America. Subsequently, Pretoria’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor made an official visit to Morocco to take part in a ministerial conference to set an African agenda on migration, alongside 20 other officials from across Africa. This was the first visit of its kind by a South African official to Morocco since the 2017 agreement to resume bilateral relations. South Africa also appointed Ibrahim Idris as its ambassador to Morocco in January 2021. He had previously been Consul General of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Deputy Head of the Protocol Department at the South African Ministry of Foreign Affairs.4. Escalating disagreements at the BRICS summit in South Africa: This is one of the main drivers of the current dispute. South Africa invited the leader of the Polisario Front, Ibrahim Ghali, to attend the 15th BRICS summit in Johannesburg from 22-24 August 2023. Morocco categorically condemned this move because it implicitly confirmed South Africa’s recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Republic, which the Polisario declared independent in 1976.An official at Morocco’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation and Moroccans Residing Abroad confirmed that the country has not submitted an official request to join the BRICS bloc, noting that Morocco’s candidacy to join the group and its ability to take part in the BRICS-Africa meeting were not related to an initiative issued by the bloc itself or by the African Union, but rather came from an initiative issued by South Africa in its national capacity.The official also indicated that Morocco saw this initiative in the context of its tense bilateral relationship with South Africa. He stressed that South Africa has always acted with hostility towards Morocco, systematically taking negative positions on the issue of Western Sahara. He explained that South Africa had stepped up its hostile behavior towards the supreme interests of Morocco, both unilaterally and within the framework of the African Union, and said that multilateral forums should not be used to encourage division or to interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states.The official also indicated that Morocco appreciates the importance of the strategic and promising relations it enjoys with the other founding members of the group (Russia, India, China, and Brazil). The bloc now includes 11 members, after Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran all joined it at the South African summit in August.5. Blowback from the cooperation between Algeria and South Africa: The rapprochement between Algeria and South Africa on a number of issues has helped exacerbate differences between Morocco and South Africa over recent years. Once again, this is most notable on the issue of Western Sahara and the two countries’ support for the Polisario Front, as well as their attempt to push the African Union to take positions in line with their own visions on the issue. There has also been coordination between Algeria and South Africa, for example, on the issue of granting Israel observer status in the African Union, something both countries reject.Possible RepercussionsMultiple repercussions could result from the escalation of political differences between Morocco and South Africa.1. An increase in diplomatic crises between the two sides: The intensity of the political differences between the two parties may be expected to escalate, over several topics, but most notably the issue of Western Sahara. This could even spark a crisis in bilateral relations, similar to that which happened in 2004. The King of Morocco appears to have warned of such a crisis in his speech on the anniversary of the King and the People’s Revolution on August 20, 2022, when he noted that the subject of Western Sahara is the lens through which Morocco sees the world, and the simple standard by which the sincerity of its relations and the effectiveness of its partnerships are measured. The same applies to the cooling of ties between Morocco and Tunisia in the past year, when Morocco summoned its ambassador to Tunisia, Hassan Tariq, for consultations, an action reciprocated by Tunisia, after Ibrahim Ghali, Secretary-General of the Polisario Front, took part in the Tokyo Summit for African Development TICAD 8, held in Tunisia from 27-28 August 2023, prompting Morocco to shun the conference.2. An impact on economic relations between the two countries: Despite the fact that South Africa was one of Morocco’s main trading partners on the African continent in 2022, with bilateral trade worth some $634.5 million, the political differences between the two sides could lead to a decline in these trade and investment flows. After South African President Cyril Ramaphosa met with the leader of the Polisario Front on October 18, 2022, Morocco’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Bourita, said the move could negatively affect bilateral relations, especially on the economic level. He stressed that South African companies such as financial services group Sanlam could not earn profits in Morocco while the South African government continues to adopt positions hostile to Morocco’s territorial unity and integrity. The same day as he met Ghali, Ramaphosa condemned Morocco’s "illegal occupation" of the territory. Morocco’s Foreign Minister warned South African companies operating in the Kingdom that the continuation of their activities there depends on their country’s government shifting its position on the Western Sahara dispute.3. Divergent stances in international and regional forums: Political differences between Morocco and South Africa may hobble efforts to reach positions based on coordination and common understanding, whether at the international level, within the framework of the United Nations and its various bodies, or the regional level under the umbrella of the African Union. This is reinforced by South Africa’s ongoing support for the territory’s independence, most recently the Permanent Representative of South Africa to the UN chairing the periodic meeting of the Geneva Support Group for Western Sahara in December 2023, attended by ambassadors and representatives from the group’s 15 member states. The group stressed the need to continue "continuing and accompanying the Sahrawi cause and supporting the Sahrawi people in their just struggle for their inalienable right to self-determination and independence, including intensifying pressure within the United Nations Human Rights Council in order to ensure respect for human rights in Western Sahara and to acknowledge the responsibility of the international community in this regard." It is worth noting that the Geneva Group has turned into an active and influential diplomatic body lobbying for the Sahrawi people and their rights at international organizations.Morocco’s failure to issue an official statement supporting South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice in late December 2023 is another example of the divergence between the two states in international forums. Moroccan took this decision despite condemning Israel’s attack on the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023. The Moroccan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued several statements to this effect, including a missive on November 2 confirming that all Israel’s escalatory actions were inconsistent with international humanitarian law and common humanitarian values, as well as&nbsp;posing the threat of wider violence within the Palestinian territories and in neighboring areas, potentially risking the security and stability of the entire region. The statement also affirmed Morocco’s support for the Palestinian National Authority and its institutions.In conclusion, despite the historical ties between South Africa to Morocco due to the latter’s financial and military support for the African National Congress in its struggle against the apartheid regime that fell in 1991, contemporary relations between the two sides have been strongly influenced by South Africa’s support for the Polisario Front regarding self-determination for Western Sahara outside of Moroccan sovereignty. Morocco sees this as a direct violation of the unity and integrity of its territory. It has often cast a negative shadow over the two countries’ interactions in recent years, hindering bilateral ties based on coordination and cooperation.

Explaining the Escalating Diplomatic Clash Between South Africa and Morocco