Dr. Mahmoud Zakaria‏‏

Located in the African Sahel region, Chad has recently witnessed radical security transformations in the fight against terrorism. This is primarily associated with Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Déby’s threat, on 3 November 2024, to withdraw from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) affiliated with the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), whose mandate is to combat Boko Haram. This announcement came after a 27 October 2024 terrorist attack on a Chadian military base located in Barkaram on Lake Chad. The attack, which killed at least 40 Chadian soldiers, prompted the Chadian president to announce the launch of the "Haskanit" military operation to counter these terrorist threats. These developments have raised questions about Chad’s threatened withdrawal from the MNJTF and the possible future trajectories resulting from such a withdrawal.

Chad Threatens to Withdraw from the Multinational Joint Task Force

Déby’s Discontent:

Mauritania, which is located in the African Sahel region, held presidential elections on 29 June 2024. There were seven candidates in the running, including current President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, who won with over 56 percent of the vote. The elections were held following earlier presidential elections in 2019, which marked the first democratic transition of political power between two elected presidents since Mauritania gained independence from France in 1960. This was a shift from the usual course of unconstitutional transfers of power through military coups between 1978 and 2008. In light of this history, the presidential elections of 2024 can be understood in light of several key factors as well as through indications of voting trends.

Understanding the Implications of Mauritania’s Presidential Elections

Ghazouani’s Victory:

Relations between Morocco and South Africa have been increasingly unstable and riven with tensions of late. This has been demonstrated in several incidents, most recently a showdown over the presidency of the United Nations Human Rights Council, for which elections were held on January 10. South Africa had claimed that Morocco’s human rights record disqualified it for the role, while Morocco accused South Africa of obstructing efforts to fill the position. The election resulted in Morocco assuming the Council’s presidency for 2024, with its ambassador Omar Zniber receiving 30 votes against 17 for the South African candidate. Yet there are many other aspects to the deepening confrontation between the two countries, with a number of potential consequences.

Explaining the Escalating Diplomatic Clash Between South Africa and Morocco

Diplomatic Conflict:

Somali-Ethiopian relations have recently entered another round of tensions as the two sides have been unable to reach a consensus. The same is true of Ethiopia’s relations with its other neighbors in the region including Eritrea and Djibouti, which became apparent during Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s televised speech on 13 October 2023. The prime minister spoke about Ethiopia’s "natural right" to direct access to the Red Sea. He called upon Somalia to make a cooperative effort to address this issue, which the Somali government has refused to do. This indicates that there will be increased tensions in bilateral ties during the coming period.

Understanding the Escalating Tensions Between Ethiopia and Somalia

An Outlet to the Sea:

China is a major world power that has pursued a relatively balanced response to the recent military coups in Africa and the regimes the coups installed. The Chinese response has been primarily centered on maintaining support for peaceful settlements grounded in political dialogue and negotiation. This is consistent with the general trajectory of Chinese policy in the region, which is premised on the principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of African countries. China thereby seeks to demonstrate how it is different from Western powers, which have adopted various forms of interventionist policies, including military involvement. China’s approach could make transitional regimes and the people of those countries more receptive to its strategies in the post-coup period. The recent coups have many current and future ramifications for Chinese interests, which has prompted Beijing to adopt certain approaches in responding to post-coup transformations in Africa.

China’s Approach to the Aftermath of Military Coups in Africa

Strategic Adaptation:

In recent years, Kenya has sought to become more involved in maintaining international peace and security. This engagement has extended beyond the East African region or even the African continent. In July 2023, the Kenyan minister of foreign and diaspora affairs announced that the country was ready to lead a multinational police force in Haiti of 1,000 policemen who would help train the Haitian police on restoring normalcy and protecting strategic installations. Kenya plans to send its team during the next few weeks to evaluate the operational requirements for the mission. This decision follows an urgent appeal by Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry in October 2022 for a specialized armed force of sufficient size to help stop criminal acts by armed gangs. These groups have been more active in Haiti since the assassination of former President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021. Gangs control over 80 percent of the capital, Port-au-Prince, which has resulted in a rise in murder, rape, and kidnapping of citizens. Kenya’s July 2023 proposal was backed by the Haitian government and by UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Understanding Kenya’s Growing Involvement in International Security

Nairobi’s Diplomacy:

German involvement across various regions of Africa has evolved significantly over the last several years. Most recently, the government of Chad expelled Jan-Christian Gordon Kricke, who has been the German ambassador to Chad since 2021, due to his "non-respect of diplomatic customs" and overinvolvement in the country’s affairs. The German Federal Foreign Office stated that it was unclear why the country’s ambassador had been expelled, and that it was trying to resolve matters with the Chadian government. This incident has had direct effects on German influence in Africa, which has gradually expanded since the early 1990s and the end of the Cold War.

Understanding Germany’s Involvement in Africa

Mounting Challenges:

The Russian-Ukrainian war, which broke out in late February 2022, has compounded various negative repercussions for Africa, particularly at the economic level in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa have pointed to growing economic damage to African countries as a result of the war due to their heavy reliance on food supplies from both sides. The World Food Programme (WFP) has also shed light on a shortage of emergency supplies to feed the hungry in East Africa. Despite these threats, and the risks associated with this war, opportunities exist that African diplomacy could take advantage of at the moment to enhance Africa’s international standing.

Dr. Mahmoud Zakaria‏‏

Dr. Mahmoud Zakaria‏‏

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