Dr. Sodfa Mohamed Mahmoud‏‏

The Brazilian Supreme Court’s ruling against former president Jair Bolsonaro, on 11 September 2025, sparked intense reactions nationwide and marked a pivotal moment in the country’s political history. It not only revived debates about democracy and the rule of law but also deepened the divide in Brazilian society. Supporters see the decision as a win for the constitution, while opponents call it a political show trial. Internationally, the ruling has strained Brazil’s relationship with the United States, especially since the Trump administration supported Bolsonaro and imposed tough sanctions as well as tariffs on Brazil. This trial could lead to more tension between the two countries, affecting Brazil’s political and economic stability.Multiple ImplicationsThe conviction of Bolsonaro carries several important implications, including:1- Reaffirming Brazil’s Democratic Strength: Some view the conviction of Bolsonaro along with high-ranking military and civilian figures—involved in a violent coup attempt—as a milestone for a country long plagued by impunity and military takeovers. Since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1985, the country has witnessed a lengthy transition that allowed the military to avoid prosecution and maintain wide influence. In this context, the verdict highlights the <a href="https://latinoamerica21.com/en/brazilian-democracy-resists-lessons-from-the-bolsonaro-case/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">strength</a> of the country’s democratic institutions and rule of law. Notably, the Brazilian military refrained from issuing any ‘undemocratic’ statements or reactions following the ruling.2- Boosting Brazil’s Status as a Global Democratic Model: The ruling starkly contrasts with the tendency of some Latin American countries toward institutionalized amnesty and limited prosecution of military leaders responsible for human rights abuses under authoritarian regimes. An <a href="https://time.com/7316648/brazil-bolsonaro-former-president-sentenced/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">article</a> in Time magazine described Bolsonaro’s conviction as "a precedent in the history of Brazil and Latin America, placing Brazil at the forefront of global efforts to combat democratic backsliding". Likewise, Harvard professor Steven Levitsky and Johns Hopkins Economist Filipe Campante <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/opinion/trump-bolsonaro-conviction-democracy.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">wrote</a> in an opinion piece for The New York Times that Brazil’s Supreme Court succeeded where the U.S. Senate and federal courts tragically failed by holding a former president accountable for undermining democracy.3- Affirming the Independence of Brazil’s Judiciary: This conviction would have been unlikely without an independent judiciary, especially in a region where populist and personalist leaders wield significant political power. Despite Bolsonaro’s attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court, including threats to use the military, the court resisted and reaffirmed its autonomy. However, the Supreme Court has <a href="https://time.com/7316648/brazil-bolsonaro-former-president-sentenced/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">faced</a> sharp criticism accusing it of overstepping its authority and threatening democracy. Besides, Bolsonaro’s lawyers intend to appeal the verdict.4- Brazil’s Resilience Against U.S. Pressure: Bolsonaro, often dubbed as the "Tropical Trump," maintained close ties with the American President. Trump imposed sanctions on some Supreme Court judges even before the verdict and raised tariffs on Brazil to 50% in July; allegedly due to the trial. However, Trump’s actions failed to prevent Bolsonaro’s conviction. President Lula da Silva <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/brazils-former-president-jair-bolsonaro-convicted-of-attempted-coup" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">stated</a>, "We are not and will not be anyone's colony again. We are capable of governing and caring for our land and our people without interference." Brazil’s success in resisting Washington’s pressure is also credited to its strategy of diversifying trade partners, especially strengthening ties with China.Significant RepercussionsBolsonaro’s conviction is likely to trigger significant political consequences within Brazil, including:1- Intensifying Political Polarization: The trial and the final ruling against Bolsonaro have deepened the sharp divisions within Brazilian society. This was reflected in both pro- and anti-verdict protests across the country. Critics of the former president see the conviction as a victory for the rule of law and a reaffirmation of Brazil’s 1980s Constitution, which was designed to end two decades of military dictatorship. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s supporters claim the trial was politically motivated and have vowed to continue protesting. A poll conducted by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-trial-conviction-political-influence-617cd55a5f213bd095fe1d6154c3ad33" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Datafolha</a> in August 2025 showed that 48% of Brazilians wanted Bolsonaro imprisoned, while 46% believed he should remain free, underscoring how split the public remains.2- Bolsonaro’s Continuing Political Influence: Despite the conviction, Bolsonaro will likely remain politically engaged. A central figure of Brazil’s far-right since his 2018 election, Bolsonaro is barred from running for office until 2030 but may still hold significant influence. His legal team plans to appeal the verdict and seek house arrest as an alternative to prison. Meanwhile, his supporters in Congress are pushing for amnesty laws that would cover him and those involved in the January 8, 2023 uprising. However, these efforts face strong opposition from Lula’s administration and center-left parties, who argue that granting amnesty could encourage future coup attempts.3- Intensifying Competition in Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election: Bolsonaro’s conviction could dramatically reshape the landscape of Brazil’s upcoming presidential race. This development is likely to increase pressure on the former president to name a political successor capable of challenging Lula da Silva in next year’s election. Any opposition candidate may need to secure Bolsonaro’s explicit endorsement and build a solid voter base. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-trial-conviction-political-influence-617cd55a5f213bd095fe1d6154c3ad33" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Tarcísio de Freitas</a>, a former minister and army officer, is widely regarded as the leading contender for the right-wing nomination. However, private messages have been leaked, stating that Eduardo Bolsonaro—Bolsonaro’s son, who resides in the U.S. and maintains ties with the American MAGA movement—accuses de Freitas of failing to defend his father in the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, recent polls show Lula da Silva’s popularity surging, indicating he remains a formidable competitor. A <a href="https://valorinternational.globo.com/politics/news/2025/09/19/lula-maintains-lead-in-both-rounds-of-election-scenarios.ghtml" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Genial Quaest</a> poll conducted on September 18, 2025, shows Lula with a 32% preference rating, compared to 24% for Bolsonaro.4- Rising Brazil-U.S. Tensions: During the trial, Bolsonaro supporters waved U.S. flags in protests, while senior American officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau, expressed support. This solidarity highlights the personalization and politicization of Brazil-U.S. relations under Trump. In the short term, Brazil could face harsher American tariffs or sanctions on senior officials, prompting retaliatory measures despite Lula’s calls for negotiated trade solutions. If tensions <a href="https://thedialogue.org/analysis/whats-the-impact-of-bolsonaros-conviction-in-brazil" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">escalate</a>, bilateral relations could become a divisive election issue within Brazil’s fragmented political landscape.In conclusion, Bolsonaro’s conviction represents a critical test of Brazil’s democratic resilience and the ability of Latin America’s largest country to maintain political stability and sovereignty amid U.S. pressure. The outcome will largely depend on Brazil’s political forces overcoming internal divisions to move forward.

Unpacking The Implications of Bolsonaro’s Conviction