Dr. Sodfa Mohamed Mahmoud‏‏

U.S. military movements in the Caribbean signal a new approach that goes beyond mere drug enforcement, reflecting Washington’s renewed desire to assert its influence in the Western Hemisphere. Operation Southern Spear seems more than just a security campaign; it represents a political framework that allows the U.S. to link drug trafficking with terrorism, thereby justifying the potential use of greater military force beyond its borders. The deployment of several U.S. warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, indicates that Washington seeks to demonstrate its power and deterrence capabilities near Venezuela, in a move reminiscent of its interventionist practices during the Cold War. Moreover, the CIA’s authorization to conduct covert operations, along with requests to develop plans for the use of force against drug networks in Venezuela, suggests that the United States is leaving open the possibility of escalation against the Venezuelan government, not just against smugglers.

What Could Drive a U.S. Intervention in Venezuela?

The Drug War:

The court ruling against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro represents a turning point in Brazil's political history. Its impact was not limited to reviving internal debates about democracy and the rule of law. It also deepened the sharp polarization within Brazilian society between supporters who see it as a victory for the constitution and opponents who describe it as a "politicized trial."

What Are the Repercussions of Bolsonaro’s Conviction?

Intense Divide:

On August 6, 2025, Brazilian President Lula da Silva announced to Reuters his plans to formulate a new national policy that labels the country’s strategic minerals as matters of ‘national sovereignty’. The policy aims to prevent the export of raw minerals without adding domestic value. The decision came in response to remarks by Gabriel Escobar, the Chargé d'Affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Brazil, who conveyed Washington’s interest in Brazilian strategic minerals during a meeting with the Brazilian Mining Institute (IBRAM), a private entity representing companies in the sector. With the Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports, tensions between Brazil and the United States have intensified, placing critical minerals at the center of their discussions.

How Has Brazil Responded to the U.S. Interest in its Strategic Minerals?

Resource Nationalism:

Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to travel to Latin America in November for the launch of a huge port that Beijing funded near Lima, Peru. The Chinese leader will then travel to the G20 Summit which will be hosted in Rio de Janeiro on 18-19 November 2024. He will also make a state visit to Brazil to meet with his counterpart Lula da Silva. In addition, Beijing is planning to host a China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum in April 2025. Some countries in the region are also planning to join the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.

Examining the Future of China’s Role in Latin America

Limits of Influence:

The attacks carried out on October 7 near Gaza by the Palestinian organization Hamas and the ensuing events have generated mixed reactions from various countries of the world. Some Latin American countries have taken unprecedented steps to counter the escalating violence against Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip. These steps have ranged from cutting off diplomatic relations and recalling ambassadors, to providing humanitarian aid, proposing political initiatives, and communicating with both parties to the conflict and their partners.

Latin American Interactions with the War in Gaza

Diplomatic Tensions

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s April 17-21 tour of Latin America shed light on Russia’s role in the region. The visit, which included Brazil, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba, also raised questions regarding the factors driving Moscow to strengthen its presence in the Western Hemisphere—in what is traditionally known as the United States’ back yard—as well as around what Russia seeks to achieve and what limitations could limit its efforts to strengthen relations with Latin American countries.

Will Russia Succeed in Weakening US Influence in Latin America?

Confounding Washington:

On March 14 of this year, the President of Honduras Xiomara Castro announced that her country would be establishing diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. This move is very likely to bring to an end the Central American state’s long diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. While the US is one of Taiwan’s closest allies and biggest providers of weapons, the PRC considers this self-governing island to be a part of its territory, and President Xi Jinping hopes to consolidate his legacy by annexing it before the end of his third term in 2027 – by force, if necessary. It seems that Latin America and the Caribbean are about to witness an intensification of the Sino-American struggle for influence and support on international issues, the status of Taiwan among them.

What’s Next for Sino-American Competition in Latin America?

The Taiwan Dilemma:

In an incident unprecedented in Brazil’s modern history, thousands of supporters of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress and other government buildings in the capital Brasília on January 8. Speaking before arriving in the capital, left-wing Brazilian President Lula—who previously led the country from 2003 to 2010—said "There’s no precedent for this in the history of our country," referring to the scenes in the capital. He described the violence as "the acts of fascist vandals." Some Brazilian officials view the rioting and chaos as a "coup," as in the words of Minister of Justice Flávio Dino.

Why Did Bolsonaro’s Supporters Storm Brazilian State Institutions?

Washington’s Contagion:

In late July 2021, US President Joe Biden pledged to impose further sanctions on Cuba, a country in which scenes of anti-government demonstrations are almost non-existent. Recently, however, Cuba has witnessed massive demonstrations for the first time since the outbreak of a stifling economic crisis thirty years ago, similar to the current economic crisis that results mainly from the negative impacts of COVID-19, especially economically.

Dr. Sodfa Mohamed Mahmoud‏‏

Dr. Sodfa Mohamed Mahmoud‏‏

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