Dr. Mahmoud Zakaria‏‏

Mauritania, which is located in the African Sahel region, held presidential elections on 29 June 2024. There were seven candidates in the running, including current President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, who won with over 56 percent of the vote. The elections were held following earlier presidential elections in 2019, which marked the first democratic transition of political power between two elected presidents since Mauritania gained independence from France in 1960. This was a shift from the usual course of unconstitutional transfers of power through military coups between 1978 and 2008. In light of this history, the presidential elections of 2024 can be understood in light of several key factors as well as through indications of voting trends.Key FactorsThe 2024 Mauritanian presidential elections can be interpreted through a set of key factors, including the following:1. The current president’s candidacy: The current President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani entered the elections seeking a second consecutive term in office. He was previously elected president in the 2019 elections, and in 2024 hoped to make the most of the majority that his Equity Party won in the National Assembly in May 2023, with 107 of a total 176 seats.The current president is 67 years old, and was able to enter the political sphere after retiring from the military, having achieved the rank of general. Ghazouani was formerly chief of staff of the army and general-director of National Security under former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. He was also one of the top military commanders in the military coup of 2008 against the elected civilian president Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi, and was involved in the military coup against former President Maaouya Ould Sidi Ahmed Taya in 2005.2. The Islamist current’s candidate: The National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) backed Hamadi Ould Sidi El Moctar as presidential candidate. El Moctar was born in 1975, is a prominent Islamic jurist and preacher specialized in Islamic shari‘a, and&nbsp;has headed the party since 2022. He became involved in politics when he was elected as a representative to the National Assembly for two consecutive terms for the Kiffa Department in eastern Mauritania. The party to which El Moctar belongs is an Islamist opposition party and the Mauritanian version of the Muslim Brotherhood. This was the first time that that the party had fielded a candidate in about a decade and a half, i.e., since about 2009.3. Political opposition struggles to agree on a candidate: This became clear when the Mauritanian political opposition failed to back a candidate with broad consensus. There were five other opposition candidates in addition to the Islamist candidate El Moctar. These included Biram Ould Dah Abeid, who was born in 1965. Abeid comes from a family that had been enslaved, and is an anti-slavery advocate in Mauritania. He worked in the courts from 1988 onwards and gradually became involved in political world as the official spokesperson for the campaign of former presidential candidate Zeine Ould Zeidane in the presidential elections of 2007. He was elected to the National Assembly for two consecutive terms and ran twice for president, most recently in 2019, when he took second place with 18.5 percent of the vote. However, he criticized the integrity and credibility of the elections.El Eid Ould Mubarak also ran in the 2024 presidential elections. He was born in 1979 and joined the National Bar Association (ONA) in 2006, and now works as a member of the National Assembly as a representative of the Republican Front for Unity and Democracy, which has seven seats. He was also a representative in a previous National Assembly elected in 2018, and has good ties with academic and human rights circles. He is known for his moderate discourse on national issues. There is also the candidate Mohamed Lemine Ould El Wafi, who works as an economist, and previously ran in the 2019 presidential elections. The candidate Mamadou Boukar Ba, who is the leader of the Alliance for Justice and Democracy party, defends the human rights of the Black population who live in the southern part of the country. Finally, the candidate Outouma Soumare works as a physician.4. Divergent electoral priorities for candidates: This was clear from the electoral platforms of each candidate. Current President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani’s slogan was "Change and Security" and his campaign centered around combatting corruption and establishing a special office to resolve issues facing youth, who comprise 65 percent of the country’s population. He was also focused on increasing youth employment, especially since unemployment rates are as high as 31 percent, while also working on building a political environment grounded in harmony among different political factions. The Islamist candidate Hamadi Ould Sidi El Moctar promised to lower prices, undertake a comprehensive and complete reform of the education sector, and achieve wage equity between teachers and government ministers. He also focused on bolstering Islamic identity and supporting agricultural development. Meanwhile, El Eid Ould Mubarak focused on the need to effect fundamental changes in the state in light of the failures of the current ruling regime, and promised to strengthen liberties and adopt reforms in the real estate sector. With regard to the other candidates, they had similar electoral priorities on some key issues, especially combatting corruption, improving optimal use of natural resources, empowering women, and strengthening national unity and social cohesion.5. Former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz barred from elections: Although the authorities allowed former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who was sentenced to three years’ imprisonment in December 2023 following accusations of corruption, to submit his candidacy in the 2024 presidential elections, the Constitutional Council rejected his candidacy and barred him from the election. This was because he had already served the two presidential terms allowed by the constitution since he had previously been president from 2008 to 2019 after seizing political power in a military coup. The former president rejected this decision entirely, and sharply criticized the policies of the current President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, describing his past term as a "failure."6. Opposition ramps up criticism of electoral proceedings: This was clear from numerous complaints filed by political opposition candidates, which referred to government media biases towards the current president even before the voting began. This led five candidates to announce a boycott of the official state media. Meanwhile, the political opposition accused the National Independent Election Commission of failing to ensure proper administration of the electoral process. They called for biometric checks on voters’ names, but the commission rejected this possibility given that it impractical due to a shortage of time.Some candidates including Biram Ould Dah Abeid accused the National Independent Election Commission of conspiring with the current president in vote buying. Although the Mauritanian government has created a National Election Monitoring Observatory, the political opposition saw this as a tool for manipulating votes, especially given the low number of international observers. The African Union sent 27 observers and the European Union sent only three elections experts. This reflects the continuing crisis of a lack of trust between political parties and the National Independent Election Commission after the legislative and municipal elections held in 2023, when political parties claimed that the commission was involved in election fraud and vote manipulation. 7. Limited popular turnout: It is important to note that the percentage of popular turnout in the elections was not large. This reflects the fact that many people were not convinced that the electoral process was serious. Estimates indicate that turnout in the presidential elections was around 55 percent.8. Ethnic division shape electoral landscape: Although Mauritanian President Ghazouani won the elections, the results also pointed to ethnic divisions in the electoral landscape. The candidate Biram Ould Dah Abeid made considerable gains in Black- and Haratin-majority areas, in addition to areas with people from his ethnic group. Ghazouani is still able to win votes from these groups, but also saw many votes from major regions that are majority-white and Arab, such as Hodh Ech Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi.Indicators of TrendsThere are a variety of indicators of voting trends in the presidential elections held on 29 June 2024, including the following:1. Current president maintains hold on power: The election results showed that current President Ghazouani had won 56 percent of the vote, which reflects his control of various mechanisms of influence and state institutions due to being head of state. He also enjoys the support of the military and the traditional political class, including businesspeople, tribal sheikhs, and parties close to the government. He has ties with various Sufi movements that have political clout in different parts of the country. Ghazouani is also able to attract the largest opposition parties. For example, the Rally of Democratic Forces, led by Ahmed Ould Daddah, and the People’s Progressive Alliance party, led by Messoud Ould Boulkheir, expressed their support for current President Ghazouani.2. Ghazouani continues to emphasize his security achievements: The current president often emphasizes his ability to control the domestic security sphere, since Mauritania has not had any terrorist operations since 2011, despite the very complex regional circumstances in the African Sahel. This is linked to the wave of military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso in recent years, with accompanying political instability in light of the transitional periods that these countries are experiencing. This is also tied to the rise of cross-border threats including terrorism, various types of organized crime, and irregular migration. The current president’s development policies are also having a growing impact, including the establishment of the General Delegation for National Solidarity and the Fight Against Exclusion (TAAZOUR) in 2019, from which more than 1.5 million citizens have benefitted.3. Continuing challenges for the Islamist current in Mauritania: The Islamist candidate Hamadi Ould Sidi El Moctar has faced major challenges including the disintegration of his party’s leadership. Several joined the ruling regime, while former President Mohamed Jemil Ould Mansour set up a new party and announced that he supported current President Ghazouani. There is also limited grassroots support for the candidate’s party, the National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul). The party took only 11 seats in the last legislative elections, which were held in 2023. However, it took a larger number of seats than any other opposition party in the National Assembly.4. Opposition forces display weak discourse around political mobilization: The lack of consensus from the beginning among non-Islamist political opposition factions around a single candidate in the electoral process exacerbated this situation. This reflected the divergence of goals and interests for each party, which made it more likely that vote splitting would occur to a significant extent. This certainly helped facilitate Ghazouani’s efforts to stay in office for another presidential term. Furthermore, some of the candidates are seen by some state political circles as having sided with the current president, such as El Eid Ould Mubarak. Other candidates faced numerous challenges, such as Biram Ould Dah Abeid, who was criticized by various sectors of society for burning books of Islamic jurisprudence (fiqh) that he said justified the practice of slavery, and because he had described a number of Islamic scholars (‘ulama) as defending an evil practice.5. Possibility of heightened domestic unrest in Mauritania: The election results could lead to worsening unrest in Mauritania, especially since some have rejected the results. Biram Ould Dah Abeid announced that he had come in second place with 22 percent of the vote, and that he would not recognize the results issued by "Ghazouani’s" National Independent Election Commission and called for peaceful civil disobedience to protest the "fraudulent elections."In conclusion, current President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani’s ability to hold onto power in the 2024 presidential elections is linked to his control of various state mechanisms and institutions because of his position as an incumbent, and due to the significant disintegration of the opposition camp. However, it seems Ghazouani will begin his second term by calling for dealing with key challenges, including rising youth unemployment, increased costs of living, migration, and rampant corruption, especially in light of accusations from the opposition that former regimes’ cronies have returned to the political scene under his presidency.&nbsp;

Understanding the Implications of Mauritania’s Presidential Elections