Amr Abdelaty‏‏

Since 28 February 2026, the repercussions of the Iran war have extended far beyond the scope of what could be classified as a limited external military operation or a regional conflict confined to the Middle East. The global economy has felt the consequences of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the launch of joint US–Israeli strikes and the subsequent US naval blockade imposed on Tehran after efforts to de-escalate tensions failed. Moreover, the war has evolved into a major pressure variable reshaping the contours of US domestic politics in ways not seen since the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003.While the conflict has imposed significant strategic costs on a global level, it has simultaneously generated what could be described as a multi-layered internal crisis within the US. This includes mounting economic and living pressures intersecting with sharp increases in energy prices, an intensifying constitutional debate over presidential war powers, and electoral calculations facing both Democrats and Republicans ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.Domestic Reverberations of the Iran WarThe Iran war has produced several major effects on US domestic politics, most notably the following:1. Renewed Republican–Democratic Divisions Over Presidential War Powers: The current US military operations against Iran have revived longstanding debates over when and whether presidents from both parties have exceeded Congress’s constitutional authority to declare war. The war has also rekindled debates over the limits established under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which was intended to ensure shared authority between the executive and legislative branches regarding overseas military action.While the current administration and many Republican lawmakers have defended the military campaign against Iran as necessary to protect US interests, deter adversaries, and prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities or threatening personnel and assets in the Middle East, Democrats—joined by a limited number of Republican dissenters—have argued that the escalation proceeded without clear congressional authorization and without a coherent political strategy for the post-conflict phase or a defined exit strategy.&nbsp;Congressional debates since the start of military operations have reflected this divide clearly. Most Republicans continue to align with the president and have rejected efforts to compel the administration to withdraw US forces from the conflict. Meanwhile, Democrats invoked the War Powers Resolution to argue that the administration had exceeded constitutional limits and that the continuation of military operations and the naval blockade required explicit legislative approval.In April 2026, the House of Representatives <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/house-rejects-effort-to-withdraw-u-s-forces-from-iran-war-as-gop-lawmakers-stick-with-trump" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rejected</a> a resolution calling on the president to withdraw US forces from the war unless formal congressional authorization was obtained, amid broad Republican backing for the administration’s policy.Similarly, the Senate <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2026/5/1/headlines/senate_republicans_block_iran_war_powers_resolution_for_sixth_time_ahead_of_60_day_deadline" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rejected</a> a separate Democratic initiative at the end of April aimed at restricting presidential war powers, underscoring the continued effectiveness of the administration’s security-based rhetoric in mobilizing Republican support despite mounting political and legal objections.As a result, the Iran war has not merely militarized domestic political debate; it has also reopened broader questions regarding the limits of presidential authority, Congress’s role in constraining the use of force, and the administration’s ability to transform military action into domestic political capital.2. Iran War Erodes Trump’s Popularity: Rather than generating the traditional "rally around the flag" effect, the war has gradually evolved into a domestic political liability for both President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections.Polling conducted between March and May 2026 indicates that large segments of the American public do not view the war as a strategic achievement, but instead associate it directly with rising fuel prices and cost of living as well as growing economic uncertainty.In this context, a 24 March 2026 Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-hits-new-36-low-fuel-prices-surge-amid-iran-war-reutersipsos-2026-03-24/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">poll</a> showed Trump’s approval rating had fallen to 36 percent—his lowest level since returning to the White House—amid rising fuel prices and expanding opposition to the war against Iran. The survey found that only 35 percent of respondents supported US strikes against Iran, while 61percent opposed them.As the domestic consequences of US military operations against Iran continued to intensify, public opposition continues to grow. An Ipsos <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-opinion-polls/the-iran-conflict" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">poll</a> in April 2026 showed that support for US military action in Iran remained limited, with only 24 percent of respondents stating that the decision to use military force against Iran had been "worth it," considering both the costs and benefits. By contrast, 51 percent considered that the US decision to attack Iran had not been worth it, while 22 percent remained uncertain. Meanwhile, following US efforts to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and restrict Iranian oil shipments, 54 percent of respondents stated that the war had negatively affected their personal financial situation.Rising fuel prices have also weakened support for Trump among segments of his Republican base. Ipsos <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en/know-new-america-beyond-april-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">polling data</a> from April 2026 showed Trump’s approval rating at 34 percent—lower than former President Joe Biden’s lowest recorded level of 36 percent, though still slightly above Trump’s own lowest rating of 33 percent in 2017 during his first term.3. Inflation Returns as a Central Electoral Issue: The war against Iran has undermined one of the Trump administration’s most important domestic political arguments: its claim to be more capable than the previous Biden administration in controlling prices and reducing living costs.The war’s repercussions—particularly rising energy and gasoline prices—have returned inflation to the forefront of voter concerns, which will make it difficult for Republicans to use economic policy during Trump’s second term to their advantage ahead of the midterm elections.Economic reports have <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-10/the-war-in-iran-upends-progress-in-taming-us-inflation" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">linked</a> the oil price shock triggered by the war to risks of a new global inflationary wave, warning that sustained increases in energy prices could weaken economic growth and constrain central banks’ room to maneuver.Within the United States, inflation is no longer viewed merely as an economic indicator, but increasingly as a political measure of governmental competence. Rising gasoline, food, and transportation costs have revived the same voter anxieties that damaged the Biden campaign in 2024. As this now comes within the context of a war initiated under the Trump administration, it is that administration that now faces the direct political costs of the conflict.4. Reinforcing Economic Considerations in Assessing Foreign Policy: The Iran war has reaffirmed that the domestic assessment of US foreign policy is shaped not only by national security and deterrence of external threats, but also by direct economic impacts on US households.&nbsp;The sharp <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-pump-prices-near-4-year-high-iran-war-disruption-refinery-outages-2026-04-28/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rise</a> in fuel prices following US military operations and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz transformed the war from a distant strategic issue for US households into a daily economic concern, particularly after average gasoline prices climbed above four dollars per gallon for the first time in four years.These growing costs—driven by wartime disruptions and instability in shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz—have deepened the perception among the US public that the decision to go to war in Iran can no longer be viewed separately from the burdens of everyday life.Each additional increase in fuel prices has therefore provided Democrats with an opportunity to accuse the administration of sacrificing the economic stability of US families for the sake of a costly military confrontation with Iran. At the same time, Republicans have found themselves defending a president facing declining public confidence in the issues most important to US voters: rising prices relative to income levels and the growing cost of living.5. Deepening Divisions within the MAGA Movement: The conflict with Iran has also intensified divisions within the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement itself.The war has exposed a growing clash between an isolationist faction that views involvement in another Middle Eastern war as a betrayal of one of the core pillars of the "America First" doctrine—namely opposition to prolonged and costly foreign interventions—and another faction more supportive of military action and stronger backing for Israel, which considers the strikes against Iran strategically necessary to prevent Tehran from expanding its nuclear and military capabilities.This divide became particularly visible during the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-cpac-republicans-iran-war-bannon-387082bac70bc17ce56a37fcbd5b056a" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Conservative Political Action Conference</a> (CPAC), where prominent conservative voices such as Steve Bannon warned against the political costs of the war, while others defended military action against Iran as a strategic necessity.This split also has extended into <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2026/mar/06/conservative-media-open-warfare-over-iran" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">conservative media</a> circles. Commentators such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly strongly criticized the war, while pro-intervention figures including Ben Shapiro and Mark Levin defended the administration’s approach.As a result, the Iran war has evolved from a foreign policy issue into an internal test of the MAGA movement’s identity and the boundaries of loyalty to Trump himself—raising broader questions about whether "America First" means avoiding foreign wars or instead using unilateral military force to defend US and Israeli interests.6. An Opportunity to Rebuild Democratic Political Momentum: The US war against Iran has provided Democrats with an opportunity to revitalize their political messaging following the disarray caused by their 2024 losses in presidential and congressional elections.The Iran war has enabled Democrats to directly connect Trump’s foreign policy decisions to domestic economic consequences, particularly rising fuel prices and cost of living.Rather than limiting their criticism of the war to constitutional or moral arguments, Democrats have cast the war as evidence of a Republican failure to fulfill their central promise of lowering prices and improving the economic conditions of US households.Polling trends between March and May 2026 have reinforced this dynamic and show declining public confidence in Trump’s economic management, growing opposition to his handling of Iran, and improving Democratic prospects for House seats—particularly among highly motivated voters.Accordingly, Democrats have increasingly sought to use the Iran war to advance a more coherent electoral narrative: that the Trump administration is not only generating strategic instability abroad, but also transferring the direct costs of that instability onto US households.A Mounting Domestic LiabilityUltimately, the Iran war has exposed the limits of the Trump administration’s ability to separate the use of military force abroad from domestic political costs. As military operations have expanded and impacts on energy markets and consumer prices have intensified, the administration’s ability to market the conflict as a purely strategic success has steadily eroded.The Iran war has effectively brought the everyday economic concerns of US voters back to the center of foreign policy debates in Washington. The central question is no longer simply whether the US has succeeded in weakening Iran or reshaping regional balances in the Middle East; it increasingly revolves around whether these foreign policy aims justify rising fuel and food prices at home, amid growing doubts about the Republican Party’s ability to manage the economy effectively.&nbsp;Accordingly, the greatest political risk facing President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections lies not only in the complexities of the war itself, but also the electoral liability of a war that undermines Trump’s promises to reduce living costs and restore economic stability.In this sense, the upcoming midterm elections are likely to constitute a dual test—both of Trump’s popularity and of the Republican Party’s ability to defend the Iran war if voters are preoccupied with costs felt inside the United States regardless of strategic outcomes in the Middle East.

How Is the Iran War Reshaping US Domestic Politics?