Dr. Youssef Dawood‏‏

The influence of minority groups on the outcome of U.S. presidential elections is becoming increasingly significant, as debates intensify over their ability to shift the political balance, especially in the face of growing societal challenges. Among these groups, Arab and Muslim minorities have seen notable growth in both population size and political influence in recent decades. A clear example of this impact was Joe Biden's historic win in Michigan during the 2020 elections, where Arab and Muslim votes played a crucial role in determining the outcome in this key swing state. This raises the question of how much these minorities can influence the 2024 presidential election, particularly in pivotal swing states that will likely decide the next president, amidst fierce competition between Trump and Harris, as reflected in recent opinion polls.Geographical DistributionThe current key factors shaping the electoral power of Arab and Muslim minorities in the U.S. are as follows:1- Concentration in several key states: Arab and Muslim populations in the United States are concentrated in several major states, including California, New York, Texas, and Michigan. According to estimates from the Pew Research Foundation, there are approximately 3.45 million Muslims and 3.7 million Arab Americans in the U.S. Michigan, in particular, stands out due to its large Muslim and Arab communities, especially in Dearborn, where Arabs make up around 30% of the population. This demographic concentration gives Arab and Muslim minorities significant influence over election outcomes, particularly in states where minority votes can decisively sway the balance in favor of one candidate over another.2- Voting influence in Michigan: Michigan serves as a prime example of the impact Arab and Muslim minorities can have on election outcomes. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won the state by a narrow margin of about 154,000 votes, with Arab and Muslim voters playing a crucial role in securing his victory. The Arab community in Dearborn was particularly influential in supporting Biden, drawn to his policies on minorities, which were seen as more inclusive compared to those of his opponent, Donald Trump. Furthermore, Representative Rashida Tlaib, a Congresswoman of Palestinian descent, symbolizes the voting power of this community in Michigan. As one of the leading voices for Arab and Muslim communities, Tlaib has been instrumental in mobilizing voters and raising electoral awareness, particularly through her advocacy for social justice and human rights.3- The role of Arab and Muslim communities in Florida and Texas: While Michigan offers a clear example of the electoral influence of Arab and Muslim communities, Florida and Texas also showcase their potential impact, though on a more limited scale. Florida is home to approximately 700,000 Arab and Muslim Americans, primarily concentrated in the Miami and Tampa areas. Although these communities were unable to shift the 2020 election in favor of the Democrats, their votes contributed to Joe Biden’s coalition, helping to narrow the gap between the candidates. In Texas, the influence of Arab and Muslim minorities is also growing, with an estimated 500,000 Muslims in the state. Their numbers are rising due to rapid population growth in cities like Houston and Dallas. This demographic expansion could play a key role in the 2024 elections, especially as the state continues to become more diverse.4- Potential to influence swing states: Swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona could be decisive in the 2024 presidential election, and the presence of a significant Arab and Muslim minority in these states adds to their importance. In Pennsylvania, for instance, which saw intense competition in the 2020 election, the margin between Biden and Trump was only about 80,000 votes. The concentration of Arab and Muslim communities in cities like Philadelphia could therefore play a crucial role in shaping the outcome, especially given Pennsylvania's 20 electoral college votes.5- Alignment of the new generation of Arabs and Muslims with the Democrats: Over time, the political views of Arab and Muslim minorities in the U.S. have evolved, with the younger generation increasingly focused on issues of social justice and human rights. These concerns resonate strongly with Arab and Muslim voters who grew up in the U.S., aligning them with broader youth movements across the country. This alignment tends to favor Democratic Party candidates, providing them with additional support, even when some candidates promote progressive agendas that may not fully align with traditional Islamic and Arab values.In this context, Representative Ilhan Omar, a Congresswoman from Minnesota, is a key figure representing this shift. As a Muslim of Somali descent, she is also one of the most vocal supporters of progressive policies within the Democratic Party. Despite this prevailing trend, a small portion of the Arab minority may still support Republican candidates, even though some of these candidates have used discriminatory rhetoric against immigrants. This support often stems from opposition to the progressive agenda, particularly regarding issues like abortion rights and LGBTQ+ rights.6- Local political representation of Arab and Muslim minorities: The influence of Arab and Muslim minorities extends beyond national elections to local politics, where many hold positions at the city and state levels. This local representation provides them with greater opportunities to shape political decisions. Notable figures from these communities who have an impact on voters include Yousef Rabhi (of Yemeni origin), a member of the Hamtramck City Council in Michigan; Osama El-Qadi (of Palestinian origin), the mayor of Paterson, New Jersey; and Salim Qureshi (of Pakistani origin), the mayor of Portland, Oregon.Limited InfluenceSeveral factors intersect with the electoral map, shaping the extent to which Arab and Muslim minorities can impact U.S. elections, such as:1- Political and legislative challenges: Arab and Muslim minorities encounter political and legislative barriers that can limit their ability to fully influence elections. One such challenge is voter laws, such as strict ID requirements, which may affect their ability to register and vote, particularly for new immigrants. For instance, states with more conservative policies often have stringent proof-of-identity requirements, potentially lowering participation rates among certain minority groups, including Arab and Muslim immigrants. While some states have made progress in easing the voting process through mail-in or early voting, obstacles remain, discouraging many Arab and Muslim voters from fully engaging in the democratic process.2- The influence of election campaigns and political promises: Election campaigns and the commitments made by candidates significantly affect Arab and Muslim minorities' decisions to participate and vote. Candidates who advocate for policies that acknowledge cultural diversity and address issues relevant to these minorities, such as immigration reform or racial justice, are more likely to garner their support, as seen in the current elections with Kamala Harris.For instance, during the 2020 Senate elections in Georgia, Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff’s campaign successfully attracted substantial support from the Muslim community by emphasizing social justice and combating Islamophobia. Similarly, Harris's focus on a two-state solution and the importance of resolving the Israel-Hamas conflict may serve as an additional motivating factor in winning over Arab and Muslim voters.3- Negative media and propaganda influence: Arab and Muslim minorities in the United States face significant challenges due to the negative portrayal they receive in the media, which directly impacts their electoral participation. These communities are frequently targeted by media campaigns that highlight issues related to terrorism and illegal immigration, fostering feelings of discrimination and isolation among their members.In some instances, such campaigns can cause potential voters to hesitate to engage in the electoral process out of fear of discrimination or violence. For example, during the 2016 elections, the anti-Muslim rhetoric employed by Republican candidates, particularly Donald Trump, contributed to a hostile atmosphere towards Muslim communities, which adversely affected their voter turnout in several states.4- The level of education and political awareness within communities: Education and political awareness are crucial factors that influence the impact of Arab and Muslim minorities in elections. Studies show that more educated and politically aware members of these communities tend to participate in elections at higher rates than their less educated counterparts. The new generation of Arab and Muslim youth raised in the United States demonstrates a heightened interest in political and social issues, which further encourages their active involvement. For instance, educated Muslim youth significantly contributed to the 2021 local elections in New Jersey by organizing campaign efforts and raising community awareness, resulting in increased voter participation within their community.5- Internal divisions and cultural and religious diversity: While Arab and Muslim minorities in the United States share numerous commonalities, they also face internal divisions that can hinder their ability to unite behind a specific candidate or issue. Differences in religion, such as those between Sunni and Shiite Muslims, or ethnic distinctions between Arabs and non-Arabs, can lead to varying political viewpoints. For instance, local elections in California have seen divisions among Christian and Muslim Arabs regarding their support for different candidates, often influenced by issues like education, healthcare, and social justice. Consequently, this cultural and religious diversity may occasionally impede the capacity of these minorities to form a cohesive voting bloc that can significantly impact election outcomes.6- The role of community activism before elections: Community activism plays a significant role in determining the level of participation and influence of Arab and Muslim minorities in elections. The efforts made by civil society organizations, such as mosques and Arab cultural centers, are instrumental in increasing participation rates among community members. These organizations often organize campaigns focused on voter registration and education, particularly in areas with predominantly Muslim or Arab populations. For example, in the 2020 elections, organizations like the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) successfully launched large-scale awareness campaigns in states like Minnesota and Michigan, which contributed to higher voter turnout within the Muslim community.In conclusion, Arab and Muslim minorities in the United States represent a growing voting force, particularly in swing states like Michigan and Florida. Despite facing challenges such as media discrimination and restrictive legislative measures, the political influence of these communities is increasing due to rising political awareness and educational attainment. However, internal divisions within the communities can limit their ability to form a unified voting bloc. Therefore, it is likely that these minorities will have a significant impact on the 2024 elections, provided they can effectively organize and mobilize their efforts, especially in critical states.

How Significant Are Arab and Muslim Votes in the U.S. Presidential Elections?