Nawar Samad

On 1 November 2024, in conjunction with the 70th anniversary of the launch of the Algerian War, French President Emmanuel Macron took the bold step of admitting the responsibility of French soldiers for the assassination of Algerian activist Larbi Ben M’hidi. Macron’s acknowledgment is part of an attempt to reduce tensions between Algeria and France, following a deterioration in bilateral relations that culminated in France’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara on 30 July 2024. This recognition provoked outrage in Algiers and prompted it to re-evaluate its relationship with Paris. Despite the importance of this historic admission, the future of Algerian-French relations remains subject to several factors, including colonial memory, geostrategic interests in North Africa, and shared economic and security challenges.Rising TensionsSeveral recent indicators reflect the deterioration of bilateral relations between France and Algeria, most notably the following:1. Diplomatic tensions concerning Western Sahara: The conflict over Western Sahara is one of the main points of tension between Algeria and France. In July 2024, in a letter to King Mohammed VI, President Emmanuel Macron declared that the Moroccan autonomy proposal was the "only basis" for resolving the conflict. This approach angered Algeria, which supports the right of the Sahrawi people to self-determination and considers any support of Western Sahara a violation of international law and UN resolutions. Algeria responded by immediately recalling its ambassador from Paris and confirming that diplomatic representation would be managed by a chargé d’affaires. Former French governments described this step as unprecedented. Some analysts believe that the withdrawal of the ambassador from Paris this time differs from previous recalls for consultation in 2021 and 2023 because the current crisis is considered more complex.2. Algerian president’s postponed visit to France: On 5 October 2024, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune confirmed the postponement of his visit to France, which was set for the end of September to the beginning of October 2024. The postponed visit reflects Algeria’s discontent over France’s support for Morocco in the dispute over Western Sahara. Tebboune said that he will not go to Canossa (meaning France) as an expression of his refusal to make concessions in the face of French pressure, reflecting the charged atmosphere between the two capitals. The origin of this term goes back to Bismarck, who used it at the end of the 19th century to express his rejection of the behavior of Germanic Emperor Henry IV, who went to the city of Canossa in Italy to beg forgiveness from the Roman pope. Tebboune also pointed out that France had not fulfilled its obligations regarding bilateral consultations, and he condemned the statements of the French Reconquête Party Member of the European Parliament, Sarah Knafo, who said that French aid to Algeria exceeded €800 million annually. In response, the Algerian authorities filed a complaint against her on charges of "spreading misinformation."3. Declining cooperation on immigrant deportation: Amid the recent tensions, Algerian consulates have reduced their cooperation with French authorities in issuing the travel permits needed to deport Algerian citizens who do not have legal residency papers in France and are subject to deportation. Consequently, statistics show a 60% decrease in the number of deportations between May and August 2024. Meanwhile, about 50 visa applications to Algeria submitted by the French Foreign Ministry for its employees and their families have been suspended. Some NGOs in France have observed that Algerian consulates no longer visit detention centers, although Algerians make up the largest proportion (33%) of the foreigners held in detention centers. It is worth noting that, in 2021, Algeria issued around 5.8% of the requested permits, prompting France to reduce the number of visas granted to Algeria.4. Half-hearted reaction to Macron’s admission concerning Ben M’hidi’s assassination: On 1 November 2024—the 70th anniversary of the 1954 uprising that launched the Algerian revolution—President Macron admitted that French soldiers were responsible for the assassination of Larbi Ben M’hidi in 1959. According to French accounts, Ben M’hidi, who was one of the six individuals behind the outbreak of the Algerian War of Independence, committed suicide after his arrest.This admission was aimed at healing historical wounds and overcoming the negative effects of Macron’s visit to Morocco. However, the acknowledgment was received coldly in Algiers, with Algerian circles noting that their country rejects the French policy of dithering and half measures and demands a full and formal apology for the colonial period. It is worth noting that Macron has retracted statements he made while a candidate for president in 2017, to the effect that French colonization was "a crime against humanity," after they provoked widespread controversy within France.5. Pressure on trade relations: Political tensions between the two countries have cast a shadow over economic relations, one of the main pillars of bilateral relations. Since the summer, Algerian channels of communication with France have been suspended at all levels, from government agencies to business circles. This radio silence has created a state of ambiguity and confusion, especially in businesses, with some companies receiving conflicting messages about the ban on imports of French products. This conflict has confused French businessmen, who find themselves unable to discern whether or not this is an official directive. According to some analysts, this economic tension reflects Algeria’s attempt to minimize its dependence on France and diversify its economic partnerships with other countries. Meanwhile, France still seeks to preserve its economic relationship with Algeria as part of its strategy to enhance its economic presence in the region, but political tensions may hinder this goal.Future RelationsFrench-Algerian relations are governed by several factors that may determine their future course. We point out the most important factors in the current period:1. Ongoing dispute over Western Sahara: The conflict over Western Sahara is the main source of French-Algerian tensions. France’s continued support of Morocco’s autonomy proposal would place it in direct opposition to Algeria, which considers such support a violation of the rights of the Sahrawis and a disregard for UN resolutions calling for a referendum on self-determination.Algeria believes that the French position threatens regional stability and strengthens Morocco’s position of rejecting Western Sahara’s right to self-determination. For its part, France thinks its position is necessary to preserve its strategic interests in Morocco and strengthen economic and political relations between the two nations, especially given Morocco’s increasing influence in the region. The ongoing tensions resulting from this issue will hinder any attempts to improve bilateral relations with Algeria. The debate over how to reconcile France and Algeria’s competing interests in this conflict will continue, and this decision will complicate France’s chances of playing a mediating role between Algeria and Morocco, which increases the risks of escalation.2. Limited cooperation on immigration: Immigration issues are a common challenge that directly affects bilateral relations. The issue of "authorization of obligation to leave French territory" is a core issue in this area. France accuses Algeria of not cooperating in taking back its citizens who are being deported from France, but Algeria denies these charges, saying that France is using this issue as a means of diplomatic pressure on Algiers. Currently, Algeria has stopped issuing the travel authorizations necessary to deport its citizens, thus delaying deportation procedures and increasing tensions. Renewed cooperation on immigration could be a positive step toward improving relations, especially if the issue is approached from a shared perspective.3. Consequences of the 1968 agreement on the privileges of Algerians in France: Better relations between France and Algeria require serious diplomatic initiatives aimed at building trust and re-opening dialogue channels. Some camps believe that the renewed debate within France on the 1968 agreement, which grants Algerians special status with regard to residency and employment rights in France, may be an additional cause of the increased tensions between the two countries, especially after statements by some French politicians concerning the need to unilaterally re-evaluate or modify this agreement. In this context, President Tebboune has criticized attempts to use the 1968 agreement as a means of pressuring Algeria. He rejects claims that the agreement affects the caliber of immigration and French security, indicating that these allegations serve the agenda of the extremist minority in France.4. Prospects for historic reconciliation between the two countries: The issue of colonial memory is one of the most sensitive issues in Algerian-French relations. In 2022, a joint committee of historians from both sides was formed to study the colonial period and work to address outstanding historical issues. The committee is composed of ten historians, including Benjamin Stora, who is considered a leading expert in this field. However, the committee has not met since May 2024, due to deep divides of opinion. Algeria continues to demand an official apology from France for colonial crimes, a position that France rejects.Despite Macron’s repeated attempts to address this issue, tensions between the two countries continue to escalate. In this context, Algeria’s opinion is that turning the page on the past does not mean tearing it up and that the causes that led to the Algerian population increasing by only 5 million people during the 132 years of colonial rule cannot be ignored. In its view, this is the real "great replacement" that was based on the expulsion of the local population in Algeria and their replacement by Europeans.5. Effect of French right-wing rhetoric: The effect of French right-wing rhetoric on the future of Algerian-French relations should also not be overlooked. Some of these pronouncements depict Algeria as a permanent complication in French domestic policy. The issue is also used for campaign purposes, which increases feelings of hostility and weakens the shared connections between the two nations.France’s current minister of interior is right-wing politician Bruno Retailleau, who is known for his hardline positions, including criticizing Algeria and accusing it of exploiting the colonial past to justify its current failings, for which it holds France responsible. Retailleau also wants to pursue stricter policies toward Algeria, especially on immigration. In this context, during his handover to incoming Minister Retailleau on September 23, 2024, former French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin made striking remarks recalling his Algerian origins and suggesting that if he used an Algerian name, i.e., Moussa instead of Gérald, he may not have become a French minister, in reference to the challenges facing French people of Algerian origin.Possible ScenariosSeveral scenarios for the future of these relations can be sketched:1. Gradual escalation between the two nations: According to this scenario, tensions between Algeria and France will continue amid accumulating issues, such as colonial memory and French support for Morocco in Western Sahara. Algeria may use colonial memory to pressure France in order to achieve political gains, while France may use immigration to pressure Algeria. In this context, President Tebboune’s statement, "I will not go to Canossa," shows that Algeria is not ready to make concessions at this point. For its part, France may continue to strengthen its relations with Morocco, which will lead to further tensions and diplomatic alienation. However, it is unlikely that this escalation will reach the stage of a complete rupture, as happened between Algeria and Spain in 2020. Two previous crises have occurred between Algeria and France during Macron’s watch. First, in October 2021, Macron believed that Algeria was run by a military-political regime based on sowing hatred for France. The second crisis, in February 2023—which involved saving Algerian opposition figure Amira Bouraoui from deportation to Algeria—angered Algeria and led it to believe that France was trying to destabilize Algeria. However, both crises ended with the return of the Algerian ambassador to Paris after several months and Algerian statements to the effect that the fight to maintain the Algerian-French friendship is ongoing.2. Pragmatic cooperation between the two parties: Under this scenario, despite political tensions, Algeria and France may seek to strengthen cooperation in other areas, such as security and the economy, as a response to shared challenges like terrorism and illegal immigration. Counterterrorism cooperation in the Sahel may be a launching point for reinforcing mutual trust.Moreover, French investments in Algeria may continue, especially in the energy and infrastructure sectors, as a pillar of cooperation that can overcome political differences. In this context, French historian Benjamin Stora believes that Algerians can compartmentalize the issues of colonial memory and Western Sahara in their interactions with France. Some thought leaders also point out that it will be difficult for Algeria—which currently suffers from regional isolation due to its differences with Morocco, the Sahel countries, and Libya—to open a new front with France.3. Conditional reconciliation: According to this scenario, France and Algeria will try to improve relations through initiatives aimed at achieving historic reconciliation and addressing outstanding issues. As a step toward de-escalation, France may continue to offer symbolic acknowledgments of its responsibility for the crimes of colonialism, such as the assassination of Larbi Ben M’hidi. France might also try to employ a "non-zero-sum policy" in its relationships with Morocco and Algeria by trying to convince Algeria that its recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara is not directed against Algeria. For its part, Algeria may be willing to turn the page if it feels that its demands concerning colonial memory and economic cooperation have been taken seriously. Algeria may also demand that France clean up the 17 nuclear test sites it ran between 1960 and 1966 in the Algerian desert. This relationship could turn from a fragile to a comprehensive reconciliation if France decides to break with its policy of depicting the crimes of the colonial era as isolated incidents committed by French army officers or administrative governors, without linking them to the systematic policy issued by the French state at the time.In conclusion, Algerian-French relations constitute a complex interplay between the colonial past and current geopolitical challenges. An analysis of scenarios for future relations shows that these relationships are likely to continue within a framework of cautious balance, ranging from political tension to conditional reconciliation and pragmatic cooperation. Sustained cooperation between the two nations will remain dependent on the political will to overcome historical and geopolitical differences. Ongoing dialogue and exploitation of common economic and security opportunities are the key to achieving a more balanced partnership between Algeria and France, despite the continuing challenges.&nbsp;

Can Algerian-French Relations Overcome their Current Rifts?