Nawar Samad

On May 29, 2025, Russia sparked a diplomatic crisis with Serbia by accusing it of supplying Ukraine with weapons; an unprecedented move between the two traditional allies. This step came at an extremely sensitive time, amid increasing Western pressure on Belgrade and close European scrutiny of its positions. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s announced that Serbia and Russia would conduct a joint investigation to determine how Serbian-made ammunition reached Ukraine. He also strives to maintain stable relations between the two countries. However, this crisis raises serious questions about the future of the Serbian-Russian alliance considering rapidly shifting geopolitical changes.

The Repercussions of Russia's Accusations Against Serbia for Supplying Ukraine with Weapons

Slavic Split:

On May 7, 2025, a French-made Rafale fighter jet belonging to the Indian Air Force had allegedly been downed during Operation Sindoor. Social media platforms were flooded with videos showing the wreckage of military aircraft within Indian territory near the Pakistani border. One of these videos displayed debris believed to be from an M88 engine, used in the Rafale, along with unexploded MICA missiles. Other videos showed wreckage from unidentified aircraft. Although India denied Pakistan's claims of shooting down five of its aircraft, including three Rafales, a French source confirmed that at least one Rafale had been lost. The incident sparked widespread debate over the credibility of the circulation of information and marked a turning point in the aerial conflict between the two nations. Concerns emerged about the effectiveness of Rafale jets against the fighter aircraft in possession of the Pakistani military.

What the Rafale Setback in India Means for the Future of French Arms

The Dassault Predicament:

On 1 November 2024, in conjunction with the 70th anniversary of the launch of the Algerian War, French President Emmanuel Macron took the bold step of admitting the responsibility of French soldiers for the assassination of Algerian activist Larbi Ben M’hidi. Macron’s acknowledgment is part of an attempt to reduce tensions between Algeria and France, following a deterioration in bilateral relations that culminated in France’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara on 30 July 2024. This recognition provoked outrage in Algiers and prompted it to re-evaluate its relationship with Paris. Despite the importance of this historic admission, the future of Algerian-French relations remains subject to several factors, including colonial memory, geostrategic interests in North Africa, and shared economic and security challenges.

Can Algerian-French Relations Overcome their Current Rifts?

Macron’s Admission:

Hungary’s assumption of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union for the next six months (from July 1 to the end of December 2024) has raised concern among Europeans due to Hungary’s previous, regular practice of impeding the decisions agreed upon by the other EU countries, especially regarding support for Ukraine. Among the factors exacerbating this concern is the fact that the handover coincides with the progress made by far-right parties in the latest EU parliamentary elections, which might prompt Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is affiliated with this wing, to exploit this progress in order to influence European policies.

Possible effects of Hungary’s EU presidency

Weakened Unity:

 On 1 March 2024, Russian sources close to the Kremlin leaked a secret conversation on social media. The leaked talks had taken place between high-ranking German air force officers, who discussed the possibility of using long-range German Taurus missiles in Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly refused to supply these weapons to Kiev. The leak has sparked debate about the extent of Russian capabilities in hacking Western military and security institutions, and also revealed various weaknesses in German institutions.

Nawar Samad

Nawar Samad

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