Dr. Mahmoud Zakaria‏‏

Tensions between Nigeria and South Africa have escalated sharply in recent weeks. One of the clearest signs of this deterioration came on September 11, 2026, when Nigeria’s National Assembly decided to suspend official visits and boycott legislative activities hosted by South Africa until further notice, citing continued xenophobic violence targeting Nigerians and other <a href="https://www.nta.ng/news/nigeria/nigeria-suspends-parliamentary-ties-with-south-africa-what-the-ban-means-and-what-nigerians-really-expect-next" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">African migrants</a>. Explaining this decision, House of Representatives spokesperson Akin Rotimi said that it reflected serious concerns over the safety, dignity, and well-being of Nigerians living and conducting <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-parliament-boycotts-south-africa-events-over-anti-migrant-attacks-2026-09-11/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">legitimate business</a> in South Africa. Kamoru Ogunlana, Clerk to Nigeria’s National Assembly, similarly stated that parliament was deeply concerned by reports of Nigerians being killed, injured, and displaced, as well as being forced to abandon their businesses, investments, homes, and other property as a result of repeated violent attacks in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-south-africa-migrants-protests-523e32cb4f0574e2e00b8345460b1c02" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">South Africa</a>.Potential ImplicationsThe escalating political tensions between South Africa and Nigeria over the situation of Nigerian migrants in South Africa could have several implications in the coming period, most notably the following:1. Growing Difficulty in Resolving Migration-Related Disputes: This is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-parliament-boycotts-south-africa-events-over-anti-migrant-attacks-2026-09-11/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reinforced</a> by a statement from Nigerian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sola Enikanolaiye, who said that around 98 Nigerians have been killed in incidents linked to unrest and xenophobic violence in South Africa since 2022. Nigeria’s Acting High Commissioner in Pretoria, Alexander Ajayi, also indicated that approximately 1,695 Nigerians were voluntarily evacuated in 2026 as a result of xenophobia-related tensions. These developments are likely to further complicate efforts by the two countries to resolve disputes over the treatment of Nigerian migrants.2. Declining Bilateral Coordination on African Issues: Some reports have raised questions about Nigeria’s participation in African Energy Week, which is scheduled to take place in Cape Town, South Africa, from October 12–16, 2026. According to these reports, there have been calls for the event to be relocated from South Africa to another international destination until tensions between the two countries subside. The African Energy Chamber, which organizes the event, has condemned the violence and mistreatment faced by African migrants in South Africa. At the same time, however, it has also <a href="https://www.tvcnews.tv/aew-2026-cape-town-becomes-test-of-whether-africa-can-keep-business-above-tensions/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">stressed</a> that political disagreements should not be allowed to impede investment, trade, and dialogue between countries.Rising political tensions between the two countries could also have negative repercussions for African economic activity and continental integration efforts, given that Nigeria and South Africa are among Africa’s largest economies. According to International Monetary Fund projections, South Africa’s economy is expected to reach approximately $443.6 billion in nominal terms in 2026, while Nigeria’s economy is projected to stand at around <a href="https://www.arise.tv/nigeria-south-africa-trade-hits-2-16bn-as-energy-ties-deepen/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">$334.3 billion</a>.3. Nigerian Demands for Guarantees and Compensation for Its Citizens in South Africa: This issue featured prominently in talks between Nigerian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sola Enikanolaiye and South African Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Ronald Lamola in July 2026. During the talks, the Nigerian official said his government was compiling claims related to property losses suffered by Nigerians in South Africa, which could provide the basis for future discussions on compensation. He also said Nigeria had requested stronger guarantees for its citizens in South Africa, including an early-warning system, increased police protection in areas vulnerable to violence, and accountability for perpetrators of attacks against <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-south-africa-seek-ease-tensions-over-xenophobic-attacks-2026-07-28/?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Nigerian citizens</a>.Similarly, during a July 7, 2026 session, members of Nigeria’s Senate called on the federal government to secure firm guarantees from the South African authorities to protect Nigerians and ensure their safety, while taking all necessary diplomatic measures to prevent further <a href="https://guardian.ng/featured/nigeria-may-review-ties-with-south-africa-over-renewed-xenophobic-attacks-senate-warns/?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">xenophobic</a> attacks.4. Potential Nigerian Pressure on the African Union to Intensify Action Toward Pretoria: Nigeria is expected to push the African Union to address the situation of African nationals, including Nigerians, in South Africa. In a <a href="https://fmino.gov.ng/president-tinubu-takes-fight-against-xenophobic-afrophobic-attacks-in-safrica-to-au/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">message</a> from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu delivered on his behalf by Vice President Kashim Shettima during the 21st Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union, held in Luanda, Angola, in August 2026, Nigeria called for urgent collective action by African leaders to address attacks against African nationals in South Africa. Tinubu also called on the African Union to place the issue on the agenda of the 40th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly, scheduled for January 2027.Nigeria could also coordinate with other African countries to increase pressure on Pretoria. Ghana stands out in this regard, having taken steps in recent months to bring this issue before the African Union. On May 6, 2026, Ghana submitted a <a href="https://www.diplomatictimesonline.com/au-assures-ghana-its-petition-on-xenophobia-will-be-discussed-in-january-2027/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">petition</a> to the AU calling for continent-wide action to address xenophobic attacks targeting African nationals in South Africa. In September 2026, Ghanaian Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa said the African Union Commission had provided Ghana with formal written assurances that its petition would be placed on the agenda for discussion at the AU summit scheduled for January 2027.5. Growing Risk of a Decline in Nigeria-South Africa Economic Ties: South African companies such as MTN, Shoprite, and Standard Bank have a significant presence in Nigeria, while Nigerian companies such as Access Bank and Paystack have established a growing presence in South Africa. Although investment flows have been uneven and some Nigerian companies have faced operational challenges, these investments reflect the emergence of a two-way economic corridor that extends beyond trade in goods to include services, finance, and digital innovation.International reports have also indicated that South Africa is seeking to import a greater share of its crude oil from Nigeria amid rising geopolitical tensions in the <a href="https://www.arise.tv/nigeria-south-africa-trade-hits-2-16bn-as-energy-ties-deepen/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Middle East</a>. If political tensions between Nigeria and South Africa continue, however, this could derail the increasingly interconnected economic ties between the two countries.6. Potential Efforts by Nigerian Rights Groups to Internationalize the Issue: Current tensions between Abuja and Pretoria could prompt Nigerian human rights organizations to raise the issue of African nationals in South Africa at the international level. One development that points in this direction is the protest <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/nigeria/metro/coalition-demands-probe-justice-over-killings-of-nigerians-in-south-africa/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">letter</a> submitted by a coalition of Nigerian civil society organizations to the South African Consulate in Lagos on September 22, 2026. In the letter, the coalition called on the South African authorities to protect foreign nationals living in the country and warned that, should these authorities fail to act, it could seek redress through international and regional judicial bodies, including the International Criminal Court, the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights, the ECOWAS Court of Justice, and the International Court of Justice.A Deepening CrisisOverall, escalating tensions between Nigeria and South Africa reflect a long-running dispute that extends beyond political disagreements to encompass security, migration, and the treatment of foreign nationals. Nigeria’s increasingly assertive diplomatic response adds a new dimension to the crisis, potentially affecting both bilateral cooperation and coordination on broader African integration issues.Relations between the two countries are therefore likely to enter a period of caution as disagreements over the treatment of migrants and xenophobic violence persist. Further incidents of this kind are likely to place additional pressure on bilateral relations, particularly as Nigerian presses for stronger guarantees to ensure the safety of its citizens. Conversely, effective measures by South Africa to protect foreign nationals and hold perpetrators accountable could help ease tensions and rebuild trust. The future of bilateral relations will ultimately depend on whether the two countries manage to contain the dispute and address its underlying causes and prevent it from spilling over into other areas of cooperation.

What Are the Implications of Political Tensions Between Nigeria and South Africa?