Yasmin Ayman

In <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/07/07/us-will-lift-sanctions-on-turkey-possibly-sell-f-35-fighter-jets-trump-says/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">2019</a>, Turkey's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system triggered one of the deepest crises in defense relations between Ankara and Washington. It led the United States to remove Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter program over concerns that operating the Russian air defense system alongside the U.S.-made aircraft could expose sensitive data regarding the fighter's capabilities and advanced technologies. In December 2020, Washington also imposed <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">sanctions</a> on Turkey's Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) and several of its officials under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).However, in June and July 2026, there were growing indications that this policy may be under review. On June 24, during President Donald Trump's <a href="https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-hell-giving-turkey-35-jets-adds-us/story?id=134547490" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">meeting</a> with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, Vice President J.D. Vance revealed that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and his team were reviewing the conditions Turkey would need to satisfy to become eligible to acquire F-35 fighter jets. Subsequently, during the NATO Summit hosted by Ankara on July 7–8, 2026, Trump <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">announced</a> his intention to lift the sanctions imposed on Turkey and expressed his willingness to consider supplying Ankara with F-35 aircraft.Political ImplicationsStatements by the U.S. administration regarding the possibility of readmitting Turkey to the F-35 fighter program carry several important political implications:1. Delivering the Six F-35 Aircraft Previously Withheld from Turkey: Ankara originally sought to acquire approximately 40 F-35 fighter jets. However, if the United States lifts its restrictions on the sale of the aircraft, Turkey is likely to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/turkey-in-line-to-receive-six-f-35-jets-if-trump-unblocks-sale?embedded-checkout=true" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">receive</a> the six aircraft that it already paid $1.4 billion for, as an initial step. These aircraft were originally manufactured for Turkey and have remained in storage in the United States after their delivery was suspended following the S-400 dispute. Although this initial batch falls short of Ankara's broader ambitions, it would represent a significant political breakthrough and could pave the way for future deliveries of additional F-35 aircraft.2. Rewarding Turkey for Its Position During the Iran War: During the NATO Summit, President Donald Trump praised Turkey's role during the Iran war, particularly its mediation efforts and support for ceasefire initiatives. He noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opposed Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons. Trump also revealed that he had persuaded Erdoğan not to enter the war on Iran's side despite ongoing Turkish-Israeli disagreements, describing Turkey as having been "more loyal" than some NATO allies. He further characterized the prospect of readmitting Turkey to the F-35 program as a "<a href="https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-hell-giving-turkey-35-jets-adds-us/story?id=134547490" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">gift</a>" to Ankara.3. Declining U.S. Concern Over Longstanding Bilateral Disputes: The U.S. position also suggests that Washington's concerns regarding several longstanding points of contention with Ankara are diminishing. President Donald Trump stated that he is not concerned about Turkey's continued operation of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system and confirmed that his administration intends to lift the sanctions imposed on Ankara in 2020, adding: "I have no concerns about anything related to Turkey." He further remarked that "our relationship with Turkey is better now than it has ever been."More broadly, this shift also indicates that Western criticism concerning Turkey's <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/07/07/us-will-lift-sanctions-on-turkey-possibly-sell-f-35-fighter-jets-trump-says/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">human rights</a> record is becoming considerably less influential in shaping the trajectory of U.S.-Turkish relations than it has in previous years.4. Improving Relations Closely Tied to the Personal Rapport Between Trump and Erdogan: Recent developments point to a marked improvement in U.S.-Turkish relations, driven in large part by the close personal rapport between Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Throughout his second term, Trump has repeatedly emphasized the strength of his relationship with the Turkish president and Erdogan's ability to persuade him of the importance of safeguarding U.S. interests in Turkey.This was reflected in remarks Trump made during a White House meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where he explained that one of his reasons for attending the NATO Summit was that it was being hosted in Turkey, adding: "So I'll be there out of respect for President Erdoğan." Speaking to reporters at the Turkish Presidential Palace during the summit, Trump <a href="https://www.reuters.com/ar/business/43ZSITCRJZMOXBFEFEMHU2EHK4-2026-07-07/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">reiterated</a> his praise for Erdoğan, stating that he felt "very much in sync" with the Turkish leader.5. Prospects for Broader U.S.-Turkey Defense Cooperation: Turkey's potential return to the F-35 program could also pave the way for broader defense cooperation between the United States and Turkey. Both countries have expressed interest in expanding defense ties, building on their improving bilateral relationship as well as their longstanding partnership within NATO.During a press conference at the conclusion of the NATO Summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan <a href="https://www.jpost.com/international/article-901902" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">stated</a> that he discussed with President Donald Trump ways to expand cooperation in the defense industry. According to Erdoğan, these discussions could extend to naval shipbuilding projects, particularly the construction of frigates, submarines, and corvettes.6. Preserving Israel's Qualitative Air Superiority: The current U.S. approach toward Turkey also reflects Washington's assessment that providing Ankara with F-35 fighter jets would not undermine Israel's qualitative military edge in the region. Even if Turkey ultimately acquires 40 F-35s, Israel already operates approximately 48 aircraft of the same type and has an additional 52 aircraft <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2026/07/07/israel-opposes-turkey-f-35-sale-as-russia-prepares-iran-su-35-delivery/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">on order</a> from the U.S., alongside its broader inventory of advanced air capabilities.Moreover, Turkey would not receive the aircraft in the near term even if the deal were approved. Delivery would take place over several years and would be followed by testing, certification, and operational integration before the aircraft became fully combat-ready. This timeline would provide Israel with ample opportunity to preserve its qualitative military advantage.Potential ObstaclesSeveral challenges continue to stand in the way of Turkey's potential return to the F-35 fighter program:1. Israeli and Greek Opposition to the Proposed F-35 Sale: This is not the first time discussions have emerged over the possibility of supplying Turkey with F-35 fighter jets. Nevertheless, Washington's recent signals in favor of reconsidering the sale have generated <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/turkey-in-line-to-receive-six-f-35-jets-if-trump-unblocks-sale?embedded-checkout=true" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">concern</a> among several U.S. allies in the region, particularly Israel and Greece. Israel is the only Middle Eastern country currently operating the F-35 and is keen to preserve its qualitative military edge. Meanwhile, Greece fears that supplying the aircraft to Ankara could provide Turkey with a significant technological advantage amid the longstanding disputes between the two countries.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2026/07/07/israel-opposes-turkey-f-35-sale-as-russia-prepares-iran-su-35-delivery/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">publicly opposes</a> the proposed sale, arguing in an interview with Fox News that it would "upset the balance of power in the Middle East." He also <a href="https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-901951" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">accused</a> the Turkish government of being influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood, warning that providing Ankara with such advanced technology would strengthen its ability to expand its regional influence.2. Growing NATO Concerns Over Potential Russian Intelligence Access: Despite President Trump's repeated criticism of numerous European allies within NATO, concerns persist regarding the possibility that Russia could gain access to sensitive information about the F-35's advanced capabilities and technologies.Should Turkey continue operating the Russian-made S-400 air defense system alongside F-35 aircraft, U.S. officials and several European allies fear that Moscow could gain insight into the fighter’s technical and operational characteristics. These <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-08/turkey-in-line-to-receive-six-f-35-jets-if-trump-unblocks-sale?embedded-checkout=true" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">concerns</a> have become even more pronounced given Ankara's continued ambiguity over whether it will relinquish the S-400 system or allow U.S. technical oversight of its operation.3. Opposition from U.S. Lawmakers: Any sale of F-35 aircraft to Turkey would require approval from the U.S. Congress. Although some lawmakers continue to support closer defense ties with Ankara, viewing Turkey as a vital NATO ally, congressional approval remains far from certain.Representative Dina Titus, a Democrat from Nevada, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/07/13/us-congress-battle-over-allowing-turkey-to-return-to-the-f-35-programme" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">collected</a> the signatures of 18 members of Congress on a letter urging House leadership to block Turkey's return to the F-35 program because of its continued possession of the Russian S-400 system. The lawmakers base their objections on the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) and the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020.Similarly, Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland <a href="https://x.com/gonultol/status/2077412894975664282" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">argued</a> that supplying F-35 aircraft to Turkey would undermine both U.S. national security and American law, insisting that Ankara should not be readmitted to the program as long as it retains the S-400 system. Reports have also indicated that several Republican lawmakers sought to exert pressure on the Trump administration from within the party.4. Moscow's Position on Transferring the S-400 System to a Third Country: Russia and Turkey maintain a complex relationship encompassing political, economic, and security cooperation. Consequently, Moscow's position regarding one of the proposals under discussion—the <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/07/07/us-will-lift-sanctions-on-turkey-possibly-sell-f-35-fighter-jets-trump-says/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">transfer</a> of the S-400 system to a third country—remains unclear.Should Ankara agree to such an arrangement, it could place additional strain on Turkish-Russian relations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov <a href="https://tass.com/politics/2158643" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);">confirmed</a> that consultations with Turkey regarding the S-400 system supplied to Ankara were ongoing, describing the issue as "extremely sensitive."ConclusionEven if President Donald Trump decides to move forward with the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, implementation is unlikely to be swift or straightforward. The transaction still requires congressional approval, while aircraft production, delivery, testing, training, and operational integration will take several years to complete—apart from the six aircraft that have already been manufactured and whose delivery was previously suspended.Accordingly, it remains premature to suggest that Turkey's acquisition of the F-35 would immediately produce a fundamental shift in the regional balance of air power. Such an assessment will require a longer time horizon and close monitoring of future developments, particularly alongside broader regional dynamics, including the continuing uncertainty surrounding the future of the U.S.-Iran conflict and its implications for regional security.

Will Washington Supply Ankara with F-35 Fighter Jets?