Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

On June 16, 2025, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud called for a National Dialogue Forum in Somalia. The forum is expected to discuss key issues such as combating terrorism and the upcoming 2026 elections, scheduled to be held through direct voting for the first time in decades. This comes amid the absence and boycott of the opposition, despite the government’s assurance that the dialogue aims to reach consensus on issues like completing the constitution, electoral reforms, and fighting terrorism. Although some opposition leaders are missing, the government insists the forum remains open and inclusive. This raises questions about the significance of holding the forum at this time.Key Drivers Behind the Forum LaunchThere are several significant implications for launching the National Dialogue Forum in Somalia at this time, including the following:1- Legitimizing the Somali President’s Political Reforms: The forum is taking place at a time when political criticism has intensified against the Somali president’s plan to strengthen his grip on power ahead of the 2026 presidential elections, in which he is expected to run. The plan includes shifting the system of governance from parliamentary to presidential, introducing direct popular elections, and extending the presidential term from four to five years. These reforms were approved by the Somali parliament in March 2024, despite a widespread boycott by many political parties and opposition groups. As Somalia prepares for its first direct elections in 2026 replacing the clan-based indirect system, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appears to be seeking broad political support for his reform plan. He aims to achieve this by inviting all political groups, including the opposition, to take part in the forum and discuss key issues like the constitution, elections, and counterterrorism. In his opening speech on June 17, the president confirmed the government's commitment to inclusive dialogue, calling the forum "a platform for all stakeholders to share their views, voice concerns, and help build the Somali state together".2- Balancing the Political Actions of the Somali Opposition: This forum was launched after a series of meetings held by opposition leaders to agree on a unified vision to challenge President Mohamud’s plan for political and electoral reforms. Opposition politicians strongly oppose the elections that the Somali federal government plans to hold, as well its proposed constitutional amendments. They have previously criticized the president’s policies for concentrating power, sidelining opposition voices, and weakening democratic institutions. Disagreements between the Somali president and the opposition worsened after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud founded the Justice and Solidarity Party on May 13, 2025, and named himself as its candidate for the upcoming direct elections. He did this along with the federal government leadership and regional state leaders. However, President of Puntland, Said Abdullahi Deni, and President of Jubaland Ahmed Madobe, were absent from the country’s advisory council meeting held days before the party was established. The new party faced rejection from both Puntland and Jubaland at the time through separate official statements. This was followed by a statement from 15 prominent Somali political figures calling for urgent consultations to save the country.3- Assuring External Powers of Achieving National Consensus: Holding this forum currently reflects the Somali federal government’s desire to send reassuring messages to foreign countries and international allies that the Somali regime is committed and willing to achieve national consensus. It also aims to communicate with the political opposition to bring views closer and reach a national agreement. Additionally, holding this forum now can reduce external pressure on the Somali government, especially amid the quiet political tensions between Washington and Mogadishu. This is due to the growing closeness between Mogadishu and Beijing, which raises concerns in Mogadishu that the Trump administration might try in many ways to pressure the country to break this growing alliance with China.4- Sending Warning Messages to Regional Rivals: The Somali president gave a strong warning to foreign governments that allegedly aim to destabilize the country. At the forum’s opening, Mohamud highlighted that attempts to divide Somalia will only be a waste of time, effort, and diplomacy. He added that Somalia is a sovereign, united, and independent state, and its independence, unity, and territorial integrity are protected and inviolable. It seems the Somali president intended to send warning messages to his regional rivals, such as Kenya, which recently moved to strengthen its relations with Somaliland, especially after the former announced the opening of a diplomatic mission in Kenya in early June 2025.Major ChallengesThere are many challenges that may undermine the success of theSomali President’s dialogue initiative, such as: 1- The Somali Opposition’s Boycott of the Forum: There is no doubt that the absence of the opposition from this forum will affect the legitimacy of the results of this political dialogue. The opposition cannot be ignored or excluded from any arrangements related to the country’s future, especially on important issues like the constitution, the federal system, and elections. Many observers agree that the opposition’s absence is a sign of a lack of national consensus. Therefore, the absence of the opposition will weaken the legitimacy of the forum’s outcomes, deepen the political crisis, and increase distrust among political groups. The Somalia Salvation Forum confirmed its refusal to participate, pointing to exclusion, lack of transparency, and failure to involve key Somali stakeholders, which leads to deepening divisions instead of building agreement.2- The Somali States’ Boycott of the Forum: The absence and boycott of some Somali states from attending the forum sessions represent another challenge. This absence is due to deep political disagreements between the central government and some regional administrations, especially Puntland and Jubaland. These states strongly oppose the constitutional amendments and accuse the Somali president of trying to take control of power. Therefore, the boycott by Puntland and Jubaland is expected to affect the course of events. The president of Puntland, Saeed Abdullahi Deni, said he will not join the forum. Instead, he wants a bigger meeting with the federal and regional governments, former leaders, and other important people. He warned that going ahead without national agreement will make trust worse. On June 16, 2025, Puntland’s Justice Minister, Mohamed Abdulwahab, said: "Today, no one is willing to sit at the table with you unless you return to the lawful and constitutional framework agreed upon by the Somali people in August 2012, accept the Jubaland elections carried out by its people, and end your aggression against both Jubaland and Puntland."3- Difficulty to Achieve National Consensus on the President’s Plan: The Somali president persists on promoting his political agenda and refuses to negotiate power-sharing. Some political parties want basic conditions to make sure the process is fair, inclusive, and follows the constitution. Parties like Xaqsoor, Samadoon, the DPC (Democratic Congress Party), Ramaas, and Dhulka Hooyo want the talks to engage both the government and the opposition, and not to be held unilaterally. They asked to create a joint committee from both sides to manage the summit’s plan and schedule. These parties said the talks should focus on the constitution and elections and avoid mixing in topics like fighting terrorism or regional security, because those could stop the goals from being reached.4- Weak Public Support for the Somali President’s Plan: Many reports point to challenges that limit the federal government's ability to implement the principle of "one man, one vote". One example is the recent events in Dhusamareb, where residents rejected voter registration cards a move that could signal broader resistance to elections across other regions.&nbsp;These hurdles significantly jeopardize the potential of the forum to foster inclusive dialogue and sustainable political consensus.The Challenge of AgreementUltimately, the success of Somalia’s National Dialogue Forum hinges on the government’s willingness to embrace genuine inclusivity and build trust with both opposition factions and federal states. Without addressing these foundational divides, the prospects for a unified political trajectory remain tenuous.

What Are the Key Drivers Behind Launching a Dialogue Forum in Somalia?