Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

On April 21, 2025, Burkina Faso’s ruling military council announced it had thwarted a coup attempt, calling it a "conspiracy aimed at spreading chaos and destabilizing the country". This event marks a fresh escalation in the ongoing security and political crisis gripping the West African nation. The coup attempt is not an isolated incident. Since Captain Ibrahim Traoré seized power in 2022, five such attempts have been recorded, including three in 2024 alone. This surge raises urgent questions about the drivers of these counter-coup efforts and their implications for regional stability across the Sahel and West Africa.Drivers of Instability Several key factors explain the surge in counter-coup attempts in Burkina Faso, the most prominent of which include:1– Deepening Divisions Within the Military: Burkinabé Security Minister Mahamadou Sana labeled the latest coup attempt as a "major conspiracy" aimed at destabilizing the country and overthrowing the ruling military regime. Sana revealed that dissident officers, allegedly based in Côte d'Ivoire, were behind the foiled plot, uncovered by intelligence efforts. The operation triggered a wave of arrests targeting army and security personnel. Multiple reports point to power struggles within the military, particularly between factions loyal to junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré and marginalized officers.The rise in secret detentions and ongoing purges to control key northern and eastern bases underscores deepening tensions within Burkina Faso’s armed forces. During the latest coup attempt, authorities arrested Captain Elysée Tassembedo, commander of the Northern Military Zone, while he was in the capital Ouagadougou for a high-level security meeting. Tassembedo is suspected of being a central figure in the failed plot, sparking alarm within the military establishment.2– Escalating Political Tensions Between Military and Civilian Elites: Despite Captain Ibrahim Traoré's pledge to restore constitutional order by 2024, he extended the transitional period by five years in June 2024, citing security necessities—a move intended to consolidate the military council’s power by eliminating opposition under the guise of security sector reforms. This step appears to have intensified criticism from factions opposing Traoré's policies and heightened tensions between political and military elites, particularly after Traoré dismissed several government ministers who opposed his policies.3– Growing Clash Between the Sahel Alliance and ECOWAS: In January 2025, the three countries: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, officially announced their withdrawal from ECOWAS, rejecting the existing regional order and establishing the Alliance of Sahel States, a new mutual defense pact signed in September 2023. This withdrawal has placed economic pressure on the ECOWAS bloc, as these countries account for roughly 15% of ECOWAS's GDP, disrupting cross-border trade and hindering plans for a single currency, the "Eco." Their departure is expected to delay or even derail the Eco single currency initiative.Declining investor confidence in the region may further complicate monetary policy coordination. The coup attempt in Burkina Faso can thus be interpreted within the context of the ongoing economic and political tensions between the Sahel Alliance and ECOWAS, especially given Burkina Faso’s repeated accusations that Côte d'Ivoire has supported coup attempts and sought to destabilize the country politically.4– Accusations of French Involvement in Counter-Coup Attempts: Observers note that external actors are fueling political unrest, conflicts, military divisions, and defections in the Sahel region—particularly after Burkina Faso’s military junta increasingly aligned itself with Russia, following the path of Mali and Niger. This shift has left ECOWAS and France diplomatically isolated. The strategic realignment has raised concerns among elites fearing international sanctions and the loss of economic aid. Mirroring his Malian ally Assimi Goïta, junta leader Ibrahim Traoré severed ties with France and moved to strengthen relations with Russia.&nbsp;Despite the decline of France’s military presence in the face of Russia’s expanding influence, Paris appears to have resorted to covert and intelligence tools to counter Moscow’s regional clout. Multiple reports suggest French intelligence agencies have backed counter-coups against Sahelian juntas. In November 2024, Niger’s military council under Abdourahamane Tiani accused France of supporting a plot to overthrow him. Though Paris denied the allegations, Nigeria leaked documents from within French intelligence agencies to substantiate its claims.Several ImplicationsThe surge in counter-coup attempts in Burkina Faso is expected to trigger significant regional repercussions, which can be outlined as follows:1– Rising Tensions Between Ouagadougou and Abidjan: Burkina Faso’s Security Minister Mahamadou Sana confirmed that the orchestrators of the latest coup attempt were operating from neighboring Côte d’Ivoire, though he refrained from naming specific parties. He described these maneuvers as part of a sabotage campaign backed by Abidjan, with Burkinabè authorities claiming to have identified an operational hub aimed at ‘destabilizing Burkina Faso’.In July 2024, military council leader Ibrahim Traoré denounced what he called "foreign interference," alleging that certain political exiles were plotting to overthrow the transitional government. Although Ivorian authorities have not responded to accusations of harboring "conspirators," Burkina Faso’s military council has repeatedly accused Abidjan of involvement.2– Strengthening Ties Between Ouagadougou and Moscow: Ouagadougou is expected to deepen its relations with Moscow, particularly regarding the deployment of African Corps forces to counter coup attempts. On April 3–4, 2025, foreign ministers of the Sahel states visited Moscow, underscoring a significant shift in ties between Russia and the three nations. These countries are seeking political and military support from Moscow to bolster their security efforts and further assert their independence from Western influence.3– Increased Coordination Between Armed Groups and Terrorist Organizations: Burkina Faso and Sahel nations are facing a marked escalation in terrorist attacks by ISIS- and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in the region. These terrorist organizations are expected to exploit the instability to intensify their assaults, potentially coordinating with dissident factions across the Sahel—particularly in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. This trend follows the growing influence of armed movements seeking to regain power through force, such as the Nigerien National Liberation Movement operating from southern Libya to overthrow Niger’s military junta, and the Azawad Liberation Movement collaborating with al-Qaeda to topple Mali’s junta. Similarly, new armed groups may emerge from neighboring countries, partnering with terrorist networks to target Burkina Faso’s military regime.4– Contagion of Counter-Coups in West Africa: The formation of a pro-Russian, anti-Western alliance could trigger preemptive military or political moves in countries like Chad, potentially spreading the counter-coup phenomenon. Chad already experienced a failed coup attempt in January 2025. While Russia's presence may temporarily bolster regime survival, it won't immunize Sahel states against counter-coup scenarios. Instead, it risks provoking violent backlash from opposition-leaning or dissident officers still aligned with traditional Western partnerships.Escalating RisksIn summary, Burkina Faso—like Mali and Niger—faces growing regional and international pressures due to its political shift away from France and Western powers toward alignment with Russia and China. This trajectory heightens political risks and stability challenges in the region, particularly amid deepening divisions and regional conflicts in West Africa.

Why Are Counter-Coup Attempts Escalating in Burkina Faso?