Dr. Mahmoud Zakaria‏‏

The Horn of Africa has recently experienced a notable increase in security and political tensions. This escalation occurs amid the complex interplay of internal conflicts with regional and international rivalries. A series of consecutive developments—ranging from internal armed conflicts to tensions among regional powers—has significantly reshaped the security landscape in the region.This escalation is particularly significant given the sensitive geopolitical location of the region along the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has direct implications for maritime security and international trade.Indicators of EscalationSeveral indicators have emerged pointing to the rising security threats in the Horn of Africa. The main indicators are as follows:1. Rising Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea: On February 7, 2026, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gideon Timothius sent a message to his Eritrean counterpart, Osman Saleh. In this message, he accused Eritrea of providing material support to armed groups operating within Ethiopian territory. He also alleged that Eritrea conducted joint military exercises with these groups near Ethiopia’s northwestern border and occupied parts of Ethiopian territory along the shared border for an extended period.Eritrea officially rejected these <a href="https://www.trtafrika.com/english/article/8d8ba597efd0?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">accusations</a> in a statement issued on February 9, 2026. The statement described the allegations as false and framed them as part of a continuing series of hostile campaigns against the country.This development represents a strategic shift in bilateral relations, which had previously involved coordination and cooperation during Ethiopia’s war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) between 2020 and 2022.2. Renewed Clashes Between the Ethiopian Government and Tigray: Armed clashes erupted in the disputed Tselemti area along the Tigray-Amhara border on January 26, 2026. TPLF forces crossed the Tekeze River in an attempt to seize control of the area. This led to confrontations with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.Subsequently, the TPLF captured the disputed areas of Alamata and Korem in southern Tigray on January 29, 2026. In response, the <a href="https://www.intellinews.com/clashes-in-tigray-ethiopian-accusations-of-eritrean-incursion-fan-fears-of-return-to-full-scale-conflict-424938/?source=eritrea&amp;utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Ethiopian</a> National Defense Forces conducted several drone strikes targeting vehicles transporting goods in central Tigray on January 30, 2026. These incidents raised concerns among local residents about a potential full-scale return to war in the country.3. Resurgence of Armed Conflict in South Sudan: Fighting <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7933p4xe7po" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">intensified</a> between the South Sudanese army and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and its allied groups since late 2025. This followed the SPLM’s takeover of territories that include military bases in Jonglei and other states. Government forces subsequently launched operations to retake these areas.The roots of this conflict date back to clashes in March 2025 between the White Army militia, allied with First Vice President Riek Machar, and government forces in Upper Nile State. The militia seized a military base in Nasir. Following this, the government placed Riek Machar and several associates under house arrest, accusing them of attempting to incite rebellion. In September 2025, the government charged Riek Machar with high treason.These developments prompted his supporters to label the government as "dictatorial" and demand changes to the ruling system.&nbsp;4. Escalating Internal Divisions and Polarization in Somalia: In recent months, Somalia has witnessed growing political polarization between the federal government, opposition forces, and certain regional states. These tensions have been particularly pronounced regarding <a href="https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A/%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7/5247969-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%AF-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%B5%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A3%D9%85-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">constitutional</a> amendments and preparations for upcoming elections.In February 2026, the Somali parliament approved the completion of the new constitution. This move sparked widespread objections from political forces, who viewed the process as unilateral and lacking broad national consensus.Dialogue rounds between the government and opposition blocs, such as the Council for the Future of Somalia, failed to reach an agreement on election mechanisms and power-sharing arrangements between the central government and regional states. This situation threatens to deepen political divisions and weaken the cohesion of Somalia’s federal system.Potential ThreatsA series of potential threats has arisen in connection with the recent rise in security tensions in the Horn of Africa. These indicators can be summarized as follows:1. Spread of Regional Instability Linked to Internal Conflicts: Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan are ranked among the most fragile countries in the world, according to the 2024 Fragile States Index. <a href="https://fragilestatesindex.org/global-data/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Ethiopia</a> is ranked 12th in this context.Conflicts in these countries often spill over into neighboring states, creating fragile security environments along their borders. For example, the conflict in Sudan, ongoing since April 15, 2023, has affected seven neighboring countries. This impact is evident through refugee flows, particularly to Egypt and Chad, cross-border militia movements—especially with Chad and the <a href="https://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2025/04/105329/how-sudanese-civil-war-destabilising-neighbouring-countries?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Central African Republic</a>—arms trafficking, particularly involving Libya, and threats to oil exports passing through Sudanese territory from South Sudan, which <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cfc62fba-d4cb-42d9-a700-52524a8d1de7?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">produces</a> approximately 165,000 barrels per day.2. Expansion of Tensions Between Regional Powers: Internal conflicts in the Horn of Africa have strained inter-state relations. The renewed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region in late January 2026 heightened tensions with Eritrea, particularly in light of Ethiopia’s accusations of Eritrean interference in its internal affairs.Similarly, the ongoing conflict in Sudan increased tensions with Chad on February 23, 2026. Clashes between the Rapid Support Forces and armed groups in the border town of Tin resulted in five soldiers and three civilians killed, and 12 others injured. Chad subsequently closed its border with Sudan until further notice due to repeated incursions and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chad-closes-border-with-sudan-after-clashes-kill-five-soldiers-2026-02-23/?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">violations</a> by the warring parties.3. Worsening Humanitarian Conditions: According to the UNHCR, nearly all refugee children in Burundi, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania faced the risk of not receiving formal education in 2025. Many of these children also lacked access to <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/2025-06/projected-global-resettlement-needs-2026.pdf?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">regular meals</a>, adversely affecting their nutrition and growth.In South Sudan, renewed clashes since December 2025 displaced around 280,000 people across eight counties. Many of the displaced relocated to Upper Nile and Lakes states.Cholera outbreaks were reported, with 106 new cases and three deaths recorded in five <a href="https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/02/23/42412" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">counties</a> between February 11–17, 2026.UNICEF estimates that approximately 33.7 million people in Sudan will require urgent humanitarian assistance in 2026, representing nearly two-thirds of the population, half of whom are children. Access to life-saving aid remains severely limited in <a href="https://www.unicef.org/mena/press-releases/children-sudan-have-endured-1000-days-agony?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">many areas</a>.4. Competition Between External Powers for Regional Influence: The Horn of Africa’s strategic location between the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea makes it a critical transit point for commercial ships connecting Asian, European, and African markets via the Suez Canal.Approximately 15% of global trade passes through these routes, highlighting the region’s importance for international commerce. The area also contains significant natural resources, including essential minerals, gold, oil, gas, extensive agricultural land, and livestock.Consequently, most external powers with interests in the region prioritize protecting shipping routes, ensuring freedom of navigation, and safeguarding economic <a href="https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/shifting-tides-international-engagement-horn-africa-and-red-sea?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">interests</a>, including access to natural resources.5. Rise of Transnational Organized Crime: According to the 2025 African Organized Crime Index, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, and Somalia rank among the top ten African countries for organized crime. South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Tanzania follow closely.Kenya ranks second in Africa for crimes such as human trafficking, smuggling, extortion, arms trafficking, trade in counterfeit goods, illicit commerce of taxed goods, and plant-related <a href="https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Africa-Index-2025-WEBv2.pdf?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">crimes</a>. Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia rank fifth, ninth, and eleventh, respectively. Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, and Kenya are also listed among the top ten countries in terms of criminal actors, including mafia groups, state-affiliated actors, foreign criminal actors, and private-sector criminals.6. Increasing Cross-Border Terrorist Threats: Chief among these threats is the Al-Shabaab movement, affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The group operates mainly in Somalia but conducts terrorist activities in neighboring countries, particularly Kenya.Al-Shabaab is classified as one of the deadliest terrorist groups globally, according to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index. In 2024, its operations resulted in approximately 387 deaths, 91% of which occurred in Somalia and 9% in Kenya.Approximately 40% of attacks targeted military personnel, while <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Global-Terrorism-Index-2025.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">civilians</a> accounted for 28% of casualties. Overall, civilians comprised roughly one-third of total fatalities in Al-Shabaab attacks in 2024.7. Escalating Refugee and Displaced Populations: Ongoing internal conflicts have caused significant forced displacement. In Sudan, the conflict since April 15, 2023, displaced over 12 million people. Additional refugees from South Sudan and Eritrea have also settled in Sudan.Ethiopia hosts over one million refugees and asylum seekers, mostly from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan since February 2025. Continued tensions in parts of the country have displaced approximately 1.9 million <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/2025-06/projected-global-resettlement-needs-2026.pdf?utm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">internally</a>.Uganda hosts the largest number of refugees and asylum seekers in Africa, with around 1.8 million displaced individuals.ConclusionThe Horn of Africa faces a complex phase of security and political challenges. Internal conflicts intertwine with regional and international rivalries, creating a volatile environment. Continued escalation increases the likelihood of expanded instability, including renewed armed conflicts, worsening humanitarian crises, and the rise of cross-border criminal and terrorist activities.Fragile political and institutional structures in several countries further complicate efforts to contain these crises. Consequently, there is a pressing need for more coordinated regional and international approaches to address the root causes of instability and to promote peace, security, and development in the region.

Escalating Potential Security Threats in the Horn of Africa