Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

In a notable development, the United States extended military support to Puntland State on May 9, 2025, by supplying American fighter aircraft to aid its counterterrorism efforts. According to multiple reports, Puntland has acquired aircraft designated for reconnaissance and precision airstrikes to bolster its fight against extremist groups, chiefly ISIS, in the Bari Mountain Ranges. This aid coincides with Puntland’s preparations to join an ongoing "military operation" against ISIS in Bari, following the training of elite security personnel in operating these aircrafts.Multiple ImplicationsThe increasing U.S. military support for Puntland at this particular time holds several implications, including:1- Puntland’s Rising Role in the Fight Against the Houthis: This military engagement unfolds as the Trump administration reassesses the U.S. presence in Somalia. In April 2025, Trump vowed to assist Puntland in its war against ISIS and warned Somalis against allowing Houthi militants to gain a foothold in the country. The administration’s growing focus on Puntland indicates that the state is becoming a strategic anchor in the broader U.S. campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. The U.S. is reportedly seeking to establish a military base in Puntland to facilitate airstrikes against the Iran-backed group after Djibouti, which hosts a major U.S. base, refused to allow offensive operations from its territory due to fears of potential retaliatory attacks. This suggests that the U.S. does not rule out renewed military escalation with the Houthis, even after the agreement, brokered by the Sultanate of Oman on May 6, 2025. The agreement brought an end to the Houthi attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea and suspended the U.S. airstrikes against the group that had begun on March 15, 2025.2- Balancing Sino-Somali Alignment Against Taiwan: Relations between China and Somalia have seen growing alignment and rapprochement in response to Taiwan’s support to Somaliland. On May 1, 2025, Somalia’s Civil Aviation Authority banned holders of Taiwanese passports from entering the country, citing the "One China" principle and UN Resolution 2758. Although Somalia's move appears aimed at securing Chinese support, the decision to ban Taiwanese passport holders from entering the country can also be interpreted as a response to the growing closeness between Somaliland and Taiwan. This development that may have prompted the U.S. to provide military aid to Puntland.3- Rising U.S.–Turkish Competition in Somalia: The United States has expressed concern over Turkey’s expanding military presence in Somalia, especially after Turkey deployed 500 troops to Mogadishu as part of a plan to station a 2,500-strong force to strengthen Somalia’s defenses against the growing threat of Al-Shabaab militants. This military presence aligns with Turkey’s broader strategy to boost Somalia’s long-term defense capabilities, as outlined in a defense agreement signed on February 22, 2024, between Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler and his Somali counterpart, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur. Many reports indicate that Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud dismissed Defense Minister Nur on March 19, 2025, following pressure from the United States. Nur’s efforts to reinforce military, space, and energy cooperation between Somalia and Turkey reportedly provoked the Trump administration, which also accused him of obstructing bilateral cooperation with the United States. Thus, this move by the Trump administration seems to reflect an effort by the U.S. to offset Turkey’s strategic partnership with Somalia across various sectors.4- Establishing a Parallel Alliance with Puntland: Amid escalating tensions between the Somali federal government and Puntland, some U.S. officials regard the state as a potential ally. On May 7, 2025, Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni boycotted the National Consultative Council meeting after the state reaffirmed its decision to withdraw from the talks, accusing the federal government of violating constitutional principles and calling for a return to the rule of law. This position may open the door for the United States to cultivate a parallel alliance with Puntland in the coming phase.Potential ConsequencesThe United States’ measures are likely to provoke diverse reactions from the Somali government and global powers that rival U.S. influence:1- Increased Security Cooperation Between the United States and Puntland: The two sides may aim toward expanding security cooperation, given recent U.S. airstrikes on ISIS positions in Puntland, the latest of which occurred in late March 2025. These operations eliminated many ISIS fighters, including Ahmed Ma al-Ainin, a key leader within the group, known as a recruiter, financier, and commander of external operations. He was also reportedly responsible for sending foreign fighters to the United States and Europe.2- Escalating Tensions Between the United States and Somalia: The Somali federal government is certain to react negatively to any military cooperation between foreign powers and Puntland that bypasses central authority, viewing it as an "infringement" of its sovereignty. In response, it may seek to strengthen ties with China, further straining its relationship with the United States.3- Rising Secessionist Sentiments in Puntland: Puntland’s independent acquisition of military aircraft heralds the possible emergence of semi-autonomous militarized entities, which may fuel separatist ambitions and pose direct threats to Somalia’s unity and stability. The possession of reconnaissance aircraft by Puntland could even trigger a federal arms race among other states, with severe repercussions for national stability.4- Expansion of Military Operations Against ISIS: Puntland may leverage the increased U.S. military support to expand its operations against ISIS. This could prompt the United States and other international powers to take additional steps to reinforce their backing of the state.&nbsp;Negative RepercussionsWhile the recent U.S. military moves to strengthen cooperation with Puntland may improve prospects for securing a base in the state, they could also encourage the latter to intensify their demands for secession. Such developments risk undermining Somalia’s internal stability and could have far-reaching implications for regional counterterrorism efforts.

The Implications of Growing U.S. Military Support for Puntland