Dr. Hamdy Bashir‏‏

A global monitoring report issued by the Institute for the Study of War's Critical Threats Project on June 26, 2025, warned of an escalation in attacks by ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Sahel region of Africa. This comes just days after an ISIS attack on June 23 on the village of Manda in the Goroual region of Tillabéri state in western Niger, which killed at least 71 people. Through this attack, ISIS sought to counterbalance al-Qaeda's terrorist operations in the Sahel, especially after the latter launched attacks against Malian government forces and the Wagner Group, inflicting heavy losses on them in early June. This raises numerous questions about the reasons for the renewed rivalry between ISIS and al-Qaeda in this region.Multiple FactorsSeveral factors can explain the renewed competition between ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Sahel region, the most prominent of which are:1- Their expansion beyond traditional areas of control: The Group For The Support Of Islam And Muslims (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al- Muslimeen - JNIM), which pledges allegiance to Al-Qaeda, along with ISIS have expanded their terrorist operations in the Sahel region towards Benin and Nigeria, leading to overlapping control areas, especially in southwestern Niger. This occurs amid intense campaigns by the two groups to attract new fighters and access new resources to finance their operations. Their expansion into remote and less secure areas has allowed both groups to establish new operational bases and expand their logistical networks. Consequently, violent attacks by both organizations have significantly increased in border regions, and they may be moving towards executing reciprocal operations targeting each other's leaders and cadres.2- Adopting different tactics for operations: The expansion of both organizations beyond their operational areas, in addition to the increasing influence of ISIS in western Niger, has led to overlapping and intersecting areas of control, especially in the Dosso region of Niger, particularly in both of Gaya and Dioundiou cities. This overlapping presence in the same areas creates a complex and volatile situation due to their differing tactics, operational goals, and violence. The overlapping presence of the two groups has also increased competition between them to spread their ideas and beliefs in the region.In particular, the JNIM increased its extremist messages, which often include warnings against cooperating with military and security forces or joining ISIS. This media strategy aims not only to strengthen the group’s presence in the daily lives of the local population, but also to establish the dynamics of interaction between civilians and militants. The presence of militants in public spaces, especially mosques, underscores their determination to consolidate their influence by integrating communities on both sides of the border between Benin and Niger through mechanisms such as community outreach, participation in local economies, and illegal trade.3- Propaganda Competition to Consolidate Influence:&nbsp;Both organizations always try to consolidate their existence by escalating their terrorist operations in new areas. Each organization attempts to position itself as the most powerful and influential alternative. In this context, the propaganda of the JNIM group points to a broader strategy of undermining public confidence in government forces and ISIS, as well as enhancing recruitment to attract more sympathetic personnel, and expanding the scope of operations in the Sahel region and West Africa at large.4- Expansion of ISIS Influence in Western Niger: ISIS has been increasing the level of terrorist attacks since late May, as evidenced by the incursion of hundreds of its fighters into the Nigerien base in Bani Bangou on June 19. Nigerien officials claimed that the attackers killed 34 soldiers, wounded 14 others and looted local buildings. The operation followed two of the deadliest ISIS attacks in Mali and Niger, respectively, when the group claimed to have killed more than 50 Nigerian soldiers in an attack in Tahoua on May 25, and 42 Malian soldiers in an attack in Tessit on June 4. ISIS is trying to use its influence along the Mali-Niger border to expand its reach.Potential ReflectionsExpected increase in competition between ISIS and Al-Qaeda organizations will impact the security landscape of the region, as follows:1- Threatening Governmental Stability: Organizations such as ISIS and JNIM are slowly besieging the capital Niamey, as they attack various land communication lines that connect the capital to the rest of the country. Moreover, the increased presence of JNIM in the provinces of Bani Bangou and Ouallam will provide a third pressure point north of Niamey, where the organization is already active along the other two main highways extending north from Niamey. Additionally, the organization attacks civilians and security forces along the highway northwest of Niamey, and intermittently claims responsibility for widespread activities around the city of Tillabéri, which is located just over 50 miles from Niamey along the highway northwest of Niamey. It also sporadically claims responsibility for large-scale activities around the city of Tillaberi. The organization also clashes with security forces in northeast Niamey near Baleyara, which is also 50 miles from the capital. Meanwhile, ISIS significantly increased the rate of its attacks on the southern part of the highway that runs along the border between Niger and Nigeria southeast of Niamey in 2025.2- Escalating Attacks Against Western Companies and Individuals: the fierce competition over hegemony between the two groups is expected to play out in targeted attacks against foreign companies. This aims to pressure these companies to pay the groups for protection. In particular, attacks by the JNIM group strengthened its ability to establish blackmailing networks targeting foreign companies and undermining the legitimacy of the Malian government. These attacks may push companies to withdraw their investments, especially as they face growing pressures from the military councils in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. This trend intensified after the government of Burkina Faso announced on June 11 that a state-owned mining company had taken control of five gold mining assets (two mines and three exploration licenses) owned by the multinational mining companies Endeavor and Lilium.3- Increased attacks against Russian interests: The insurgents of the Azawad Liberation Front, allied with ISIS and JNIM, ambushed a financial Russian convoy near Aguelhok, in the Kidal region of northern Mali on June 13. The ambush killed several soldiers from the African Corps supported by the Russian Ministry of Defense, dozens of Malian soldiers, destructed 21 vehicles. This targeting poses a threat to Russian economic interests in the region, as Moscow has worked to persuade Bamako to expel Western gold mining companies, including the Canadian company Barrick, and to reassign the contracts owned by them to Russian companies. The new tax law in Mali and the escalatory measures against Barrick are an explicit part of a joint campaign with Russia to control the profitable mines owned by Western companies. Russian companies have gained access to uranium assets previously owned by the French in Niger and new gold deposits in Burkina Faso. Hence, the attack launched by the Azawad Liberation Movement, in coordination with JNIM, indicates a potential escalation of terrorist operations aimed at undermining the influence of companies and threatening Russian interests in the region.4- Reconsidering Negotiations with Terrorists: The escalation of terrorist operations may likely push the Malian government to support the diplomatic option by conducting negotiations with the ISIS and JNIM in central Mali, in a hopeful bid to contain their growing expansion and domestic influence. The local authorities have intensified these efforts after JNIM &nbsp;kidnapped several government leaders on June 9th. However, this option may not achieve the desired results, especially since the two organizations may consider this approach a sign of surrender, further driving them to increase their pressure on authorities and expand their domestic influence.Convergent InterestsIn sum, it can be argued that despite the expansion of ISIS and al-Qaeda outside their traditional areas of control, in addition to the geographical overlap in their areas of operations and control —which suggests a scenario of escalating competition between them—,this may not necessarily push the two organizations towards a direct confrontation in the region, but may produce adverse repercussions, which are their tendency towards concluding a temporary settlement that provides for the demarcation of their areas of operations in the Sahel region.

How Far Can Terrorist Group Rivalries Escalate in the Sahel?Dr. Hamdi Bashir