Nawar Samad

Hungary’s assumption of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union for the next six months (from July 1 to the end of December 2024) has raised concern among Europeans due to Hungary’s previous, regular practice of impeding the decisions agreed upon by the other EU countries, especially regarding support for Ukraine. Among the factors exacerbating this concern is the fact that the handover coincides with the progress made by far-right parties in the latest EU parliamentary elections, which might prompt Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is affiliated with this wing, to exploit this progress in order to influence European policies.Hungarian ProgramAmong the tasks of the country leading the rotating presidency of the EU is to set specific priorities within the European agenda, organize discussions among member states, and seek to reach compromises on controversial legislation. We point to the following primary features that Hungary has tried to disseminate around this presidency:1. Attempt to reassure European partners: Some analysts believe that the Hungarian rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union will not give Orbán the ability to dictate new European policies or modify old ones. This is not the first time that Hungary has assumed this function, as it previously held this position in the first half of 2011. In May 2024, in the context of reassuring European partners, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that "having already held this position in 2011, we should not overestimate this presidency." Moreover, before the handover, Hungary was keen to jettison its troubling positions and lifted its veto on several issues, like the fourteenth package of sanctions against Russia, the appointment of Dutchman Mark Rutte as Secretary-General of NATO, and the actual opening of negotiations regarding Ukraine’s membership in the EU. The question of military aid to Kyiv remains under debate, and Budapest would like to invest in this issue in order to free funds allocated to it but frozen by the European Commission due to Budapest’s failure to fulfill&nbsp;its obligations regarding the rule of law.2. Focus on restricting illegal immigration: Hungary has declared its interest in strengthening European manufacturing and defense, combatting illegal immigration, and introducing changes to asylum procedures. Hungary proposes going much farther than the EU Asylum and Migration Pact, all of whose provisions the members of the Fidesz Party in the European Parliament voted against on grounds that it encourages illegal immigration. In June 2024, the EU’s Court of Justice fined the Hungarian government € 200 million for violating Europe’s asylum policy. On several occasions, Orbán has also expressed his regret over the decline of the white and Christian population in Europe and the major increase in Muslims. 3. Propose standards for expanding EU membership: Despite Hungary’s reluctance to admit Ukraine into the EU, it ended by accepting the official opening of accession negotiations after a European pressure campaign on Hungary. Hungary wants to move forward with the process of European expansion, but according to criteria based on merit, balance, and credibility, so it says. Observers believe that the formulation adopted by Hungary is aimed indirectly at excluding &nbsp;Ukraine’s candidacy and supporting Serbia’s.Some readings hold that Hungary’s rotating presidency will not have an effect on Ukraine’s accession because the 27 states will not need to make a decision on the subject in the next six months. On 27 June 2024, the Ukrainian newspaper, Evropeïska Pravda, leaked a list of 11 Hungarian demands in exchange for Budapest’s support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU, including a form of autonomy for the Uzhhorod region (Transcarpathia), where 15% of the population is of Hungarian origin, as well as a share of representatives of Hungarian origin in the Ukrainian parliament.4. Raise the slogan "Make Europe Great Again": Hungary has declared that MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) will be its slogan during the six months of its presidency. This slogan is based on the perception that the member states are stronger together, while also symbolizing that Europe is capable of becoming an independent global player. Of course, through this slogan, Hungary is trying to emphasize its support for the European project and combat criticisms that it seeks to dismantle the EU through its policies.Key IssuesFrom the first days of Hungary’s presidency, Viktor Orbán’s problematic performance has raised European discontent and fear that matters will continue at the same pace throughout the next six months. Among the most significant criticisms are the following:1. Criticism of Orbán’s attempts to mediate the Ukraine war: In July 2024, Orbán surprised all his European partners by making a quick tour including Kyiv, Moscow, Shusha in Azerbaijan, Beijing, and finally Washington to participate in the NATO summit. His visits to Moscow, Azerbaijan, and Beijing, which he put in the category of a "peace mission," were considered an indicator of a lack of transparency with his European partners because he prepared for them secretly and without consulting them. Some European capitals have denounced Orbán’s role, saying that it is a form of parallel diplomacy and emphasizing that during this tour he was only representing his country. Orbán’s call for Ukraine to implement a cease fire in order to launch peace negotiations with Russia was also criticized because this position is far removed from that of Europe and the neutral mediation promised by Hungarian authorities.2. Accusations that Orbán is shattering European unity: Hungarian circles have flaunted Orbán’s tour, saying that in a few days he was able to meet with all the important leaders who will decide the fate of Ukraine and Europe. They have also boasted that Orbán is the only European leader capable of conversing with all the parties. The tour also gained the support of Trump, who described Orbán as a peacemaker. Some readings indicate that Orbán’s arrival in Moscow allowed Putin to appear with a European leader, thus breaking the unified front of the 27 European leaders with regard to the Ukrainian issue. Russia exploited this visit to suggest that Orbán went to Moscow as the EU’s representative.In this vein, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted that an appeasement policy will not stop Putin and that unity and resolve alone will pave the way for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. Through meeting with Orbán, Beijing was able to show that European measures to impose tariffs on Chinese electric cars do not enjoy consensus among the 27 nations of the EU. The EU member states will have to confirm these tariffs by a certified majority this coming November. Meanwhile, Beijing will be working in tandem with Hungary to gather a sufficient number of European countries to defeat this measure.3. Accusations that Budapest is exploiting the transitional phase in European institutions: Some explain the launch of Orbán’s unexpected initiatives in terms of his desire to exploit the period of relative vacuum within EU institutions, such as the newly elected European Parliament and the Commission that is currently being installed. Orbán took advantage of this transitional phase to intensify his movements during a time in which none of the outgoing European officials were able to effectively represent the EU abroad. Thus, he wanted to suggest that he heads the EU and not just Hungary.4. Orbán’s use of the European presidency to repair his image at home: These circumstances have helped give Orbán an opportunity to show his people his new international standing, especially after facing active domestic opposition led by Péter Magyar, who was able to win about 30% of the votes in the European elections. &nbsp;Orbán can say that he is the only European who recently met with Zelensky, Putin, and Xi Jinping and that he is at the heart of the international diplomatic game even though Hungary is a small country.5. Orbán’s efforts to increase the influence of the far right in the European Parliament: In July 2024, Orbán helped launch a group within the European Parliament called Patriots for Europe (P4E), which included, in addition to representatives of his Fidesz Party (10 seats), representatives of the French National Rally Party (30 seats) and other European parties. This group is led by a Frenchman, Jordan Bardella. Orbán is counting on this new far-right group—which is the third-largest bloc in the European Parliament with 84 seats—to support his vision.6. Ongoing rapprochement between the Hungarian president and former US President Trump: During his recent visit to the US, Orbán met with the former US president and current Republican candidate in the upcoming presidential elections, Donald Trump. Hungary’s use of the slogan "Make Europe Great Again" indicates the closeness between Orbán and Trump, which prompted Orbán to copy the slogan from Trump’s 2016 electoral campaign.The two leaders share their opposition to increasing military aid to Ukraine. Trump was involved in the process of obstructing the USD 61 billion package for Ukraine in the US Congress, which recently passed in April 2024. Likewise, since 2022, Orbán has worked to prevent European aid to Ukraine, using it as a bargaining chip to lift the financial sanctions imposed on his country by the EU. Some see a potential Trump victory in November, coinciding with Hungary’s rotating presidency, as a critical factor, as there is a tendency among European nationalists to line up behind Trump.European ResponseEuropean responses range from reminding Orbán of the unified European position and his lack of authority to negotiate on behalf of the EU, as well as other measures, the most important of which we summarize as follows: 1. European denunciation of Orbán’s moves: Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has stated that Orbán is exploiting the position of the EU presidency to cause confusion, but the EU will nevertheless remain united behind Ukraine against Russian aggression. Likewise, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stressed that the EU’s position is very clear in condemning the Russian war of aggression and providing adequate support to Ukraine. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, also stated that Orbán’s participation in the Organization of Turkic States in Azerbaijan took place solely in the framework of bilateral relations between Hungary and this organization.Outgoing European Council President Charles Michel said that the EU’s rotating presidency does not have the authority to deal with Russia on behalf of the EU, and the European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim, and there can be no discussion about Ukraine without Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also announced a boycott of Hungary’s presidency, saying that the European Commission had decided not to travel to Budapest in light of recent developments. She added that the Commission will not be represented at conferences organized in Hungary except by employees and not by commissioners, and the commissioners’ visit to Hungary—a traditional visit at the beginning of each rotating presidency—has also been cancelled. This is the first time that such a boycott against the rotating EU presidency has been declared.2. European diplomatic pressure campaign on Budapest to explain its policies: A meeting of the permanent representatives of the EU member states was held in Brussels on July 10, to discuss the Hungarian issue. These representatives demanded clarifications from Hungary regarding Viktor Orbán’s initiatives and evidence that he did not claim to represent the EU before Vladimir Putin. Hungary tried to persuade the other countries that the visits were purely bilateral and aimed only at evaluating the conditions for a ceasefire. Some sources indicate that Hungary’s response only convinced the Slovakian ambassador, while the other 25 ambassadors considered Hungary’s arguments non-credible. &nbsp;3. Discussion of shortening the term of Hungary’s EU presidency: European treaties do not provide for the exclusion of any country from the rotation of the presidency of the Council of the European Union every six months. Such an exclusion has occurred only once, when, at its request, the UK did not assume this function in 2017, after the vote in favor of Brexit. Some groups, such as Renew Europe and the Greens, are calling for shortening Hungary’s presidency and handing it over early to Poland before December 31, although no EU member state has presented such a demand, which is considered legally sensitive. Some diplomatic circles believe that, based on the strong warning sent to Hungary, it will be difficult for Hungary to take new controversial steps.In conclusion, it only took a few days from the start of its rotating presidency for Hungary to lose what little credibility it had with its European partners. It seems that Orbán is counting on the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump has stressed that he is capable of ending the Ukraine war within a few days if he is elected. While awaiting November, all eyes remain on how Hungary will deal with the issue of renewing sanctions on Russia, which is voted on every six months (the last vote was this past June), in addition to the issue of setting final tariffs on Chinese electric cars this coming November.

Possible effects of Hungary’s EU presidency