Mohamed Basyouny Abd Elhaleem‏‏

Rania Soliman Saad el-Din

There are concerns about the implications of the current escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, particularly as it contrasts with their usual skirmishes and exchanges of fire, ongoing since October 8, 2023, in parallel with the war on Gaza. Israel began using new methods to weaken Hezbollah, such as infiltrating communication devices, which became evident when Israel detonated Hezbollah’s wireless communication devices, injuring thousands of Lebanese. Israel has not officially admitted involvement in these bombings yet. Additionally, there have been direct attacks on southern Lebanon over the past few days, resulting in over 500 deaths and thousands of injuries among civilians, leading to widespread regional and international condemnation. This has led many analysts to question the future of this escalation and whether it could expand into a total war, given the various positions of regional and international powers on the conflict and the domestic situations of both Israel and Hezbollah, who have been exhausted by the Gaza war.

What are the Limits of Escalation between Israel and Hezbollah?

Threshold of War:

Operation al-Aqsa Flood, which Hamas launched on 7 October 2023, has set off one of the largest military confrontations in history between Israel and Palestinian movements. The operation was a surprise attack that reflects various shifts taking place in Israel and Palestine. On the Israeli side, the operation drew attention to significant military and intelligence failures in the country’s early warning and preparedness systems. It also demonstrated the extent of the heated political conflict that Israel has faced in recent months amidst the judicial reform crisis, which produced divisions within Israeli military institutions. Some Israelis have refused to serve in the country’s military due to their opposition to Netanyahu’s policies. This contributed to the challenges that Israeli political and military institutions faced in dealing with Operation al-Aqsa Flood. The operation has also been enormously costly for Israel in terms of material resources and human lives.

What Lies Ahead in the Military Escalation between Israel and Hamas?

Operation al Aqsa Flood:

"For what we Europeans have been doing the last 3,000 years, we should be apologizing for the next 3,000 years before starting to give moral lessons to people." These were the words of FIFA President Gianni Infantino a few hours before the opening of the World Cup in Qatar. As much as these words reflected Infantino’s attempt to defend the decision to organize the tournament in Qatar despite numerous Western criticisms of FIFA, his statements also recalled the complex relationship between the West and other countries of the world. Since its founding in its current form in England in the mid-19th century, football has been a domain for international geopolitical competition. For decades, the West believed that this sport was a part of its cultural and social heritage. This belief gave Western countries, specifically European countries, the greatest influence on the game and the ability to determine its rules and regulations, and perhaps also the scope of other countries’ participation in it. Significantly, this influence has faced numerous challenges in recent years, amid demands from so-called developing countries for greater fairness in the game, which has gained huge global popularity beyond Europe and the West as a whole.

How Did Football Become a Tool of Global Geopolitical Competition?

Burden of History:

Drones have played an important role in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Since the war first broke out on 24 February 2022, both Russia and Ukraine (and the forces supporting each side) have relied on drones to achieve a variety of military objectives related to surveillance, information gathering, and carrying out attacks to reduce the enemy’s capabilities and inflict greater military losses. It is worth noting that the military use of drones has been accompanied by efforts to employ drones for other purposes, particularly for documenting the war. In other words, drones have become a tool of the propaganda war that is being waged alongside the military conflict. Drones have also been used in relief operations and in delivering emergency medical aid.

Drones Increasingly Employed in Ukraine’s War. Here’s Why

Game Changer:

In his book on lying in international politics, John Mearsheimer observes that "lying to opponents, albeit loathsome, is usually widely accepted as a strategic weapon in foreign policy." This observation certainly applies to the Ukrainian crisis, which has been simmering for months and entered a more complex phase after Moscow announced a military intervention in Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Russia’s move has been coupled with opposition campaigns by parties to the conflict using false and misleading information that have enjoyed massive circulation across traditional and non-traditional media. These campaigns are designed to achieve many objectives, perhaps most importantly the ability to promote a narrative of the conflict and its justifications from the perspective of each side, as well as to weaken the military position of the other side by publishing fake videos and photographs showing the opponent’s losses. Disinformation is also a key tool of mutual finger-pointing, which may explain the mutual accusations of lying, deception, and disinformation between Russian and Ukrainian officials, as well as between officials of Russia and Western nations.

Disinformation Campaigns Occupy the Ukrainian Crisis

Media Wars:

As much as Expo 2020 has economic as well as political importance for the UAE, it also carries important benefits for the region. The organization of such a huge event for the first time in the Middle East is likely to give countries of the region an opportunity to to present an image that is different from the one that has prevailed in recent years as a result of the region’s political crises and conflicts. Moreover, the exhibition provides an opportunity for countries of the region to boost their economies and recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Expectations for huge numbers of attendees at the exhibition mean, in one way or another, the revitalization of the tourism sector, not only in the UAE, but in the region at large. The UAE’s hosting of Expo 2020 calls for a more comprehensive perspective that takes into account the effects and repercussions of this event on the Middle East.

Mohamed Basyouny Abd Elhaleem‏‏

Mohamed Basyouny Abd Elhaleem‏‏

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