Ahmad Abdelkader Yahia‏‏

For the seventh straight week, tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrated on February 18th, amid the ongoing "judicial reform" crisis in Israel. According to The Jerusalem Post, nearly 250,000 Israelis turned out for these protests, including 135,000 on the streets of Tel Aviv alone. These demonstrations came a few days after massive demonstrations on February 13th, outside the Knesset in Jerusalem and several Israeli cities, as the government began its first rounds of voting on parts of the proposed legislation in a stormy session of the Knesset from which at least 14 members of the opposition were expelled.

What is the Effect of the "Judicial Reform" on the Israeli Economy?

Institutional Turmoil:

The Central Elections Committee in Israel announced the semi-final election results for the 25th Knesset on the evening of Thursday, 3 November 2022. The camp led by leader of the opposition and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won 64 out of a total 120 Knesset seats. This outcome was at odds with all opinion polls held in recent months. Meanwhile, current Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s camp won only 51 seats, which will allow veteran Israeli politician Netanyahu—whom his supporters refer to as the "magician"—to become prime minister again less than 18 months after he left office. Netanyahu will form what is expected to be one of the most right-wing governments in Israel’s history. Prime Minister Yair Lapid congratulated Netanyahu on his victory and affirmed that he would issue instructions for all branches of his government to prepare for an orderly transition of power.

What Does Netanyahu’s Victory in the Knesset Elections Mean?

The Magician Returns:

Despite the state of optimism that prevailed since the beginning of October, after Lebanon and Israel received a proposal for the demarcation of the two countries’ maritime borders from United States mediator Amos Hochstein—as it seemed the countries were closer than ever to settling the maritime border dispute, according to senior officials in both Lebanon and Israel—this optimism has since declined significantly. After Lebanon submitted comments on the US proposal, Israeli media reported on October 6 that Israel’s government rejected the remarks. This means a decline in the prospects of reaching a settlement soon, especially with growing domestic opposition in Israel to the proposed draft agreement. This could explain why Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz instructed the army to prepare for a possible escalation on the border with Lebanon on October 6.

Why is a Maritime Demarcation Agreement with Lebanon Fueling Divisions in Israel?

The Hochstein Draft:

On September 4, 2022, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz announced the appointment of the current deputy chief of staff, Hertzi Halevi, as the 23rd Israeli chief of staff. Halevi will succeed Aviv Kochavi, whose term ends in January 2023. The selection of Halevi came after the names of prominent military figures were circulated to fill the post, including Eyal Zamir, a close ally of opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and Yoel Strick. This week, the Israeli Minister of Defense is expected to forward Halevi’s name to the Advisory Appointments Committee for Senior Roles for approval. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid congratulated Halevi, saying that he is "an excellent commander who is rich in experience and skill…He’ll lead the IDF to many significant accomplishments."

Why Did Tel Aviv Appoint Halevi Chief of Staff?

The "Philosopher General":

Given its strong relationships with the parties involved, the Israeli government has multiple concerns about developments in the Ukrainian crisis. Tel Aviv is apprehensive about the continued declining status of the US in the world, which may lead to reduced American support for Israel and an accelerated US withdrawal from the Middle East that may leave Tel Aviv face-to-face with hostile powers in the region. Furthermore, Tel Aviv fears the possible negative repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis on its understandings with Russia in Syria, which may limit the room to maneuver that Israel has grown accustomed to in recent years, not to mention the potential blow-back of the Ukrainian crisis inside Israel, where nearly one million Jews of Russian origin live, and concern for a new wave of Jewish immigration from Ukraine if the situation worsens. All these factors are pushing Tel Aviv to try to maintain an equal distance from all sides in the Ukrainian crisis and to work as hard as possible to prevent a full-blown war. Despite a statement from Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, on 20 February 2022 that his nation’s position will be consistent with that of the West in the event of "an outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine," all indicators confirm that Israel is eager to adopt a "policy of neutrality" vis-à-vis the crisis, which has prompted some Ukrainian officials to accuse Israel of sympathizing with the Russian view of the crisis.

Tel Aviv Steers a Middle Course amid Ukraine Crisis

Policy of Non-Committal:

Observers are skeptical about the Democratic Party’s ability to maintain its fragile control over the White House and Congress. Its popularity is significantly declining inside the US, as can be seen through several indicators. These include the deterioration of President Biden and his Vice President Kamala Harris’s popularity; the major hurdles faced by the Biden Administration to pass its ambitious agenda due to the objection of some wings inside the party of the president’s legislative trends; in addition to the defeat of the Democratic candidate for governor of Virginia by a Republican candidate. The defeat in Virginia was especially important because of the Democrats’ huge popularity there. These crises raise the specter that the Democrats will lose in the upcoming midterm elections, which would pose an obstacle to the legislative agenda of Biden and enable the Republicans to gain dominance over American policy. This would also impact the 2024 presidential elections, especially amid the Republicans’ relentless efforts to strengthen their popularity inside the US by exploiting increasing fractures within the Democrats. 

Ahmad Abdelkader Yahia‏‏

Ahmad Abdelkader Yahia‏‏

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