Muhammad Al-Faqi‏‏

During his remarks made on the morning of August 2, 2022, American President Joe Biden announced that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda, had been assassinated in Afghanistan’s capital city of Kabul. Biden did not go into precise details during his comments about the operation, but rather provided a general context for the attack. He had authorized the hit on al-Zawahiri nearly a week ago after previously determining his place of residence earlier this year. Up until now, Al-Qaeda has not made any formal response neither confirming nor denying al-Zawahiri’s death. The Taliban has been similarly silent on the matter, only issuing a statement criticizing the American strike on a home in the Afghani capital. Yet, the statement did not indicate that al-Zawahiri was residing in that targeted house.

What Comes Next After the Death of Al-Qaeda’s No. 1 in Afghanistan?

Symbolic Importance:

The Islamic State – West Africa Province has been trying to seriously develop its operations over the past year and has escalated operations in traditional areas of influence in northeastern Nigeria, and along the border with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. This expansion has occurred despite the joint operations that Nigeria has led around Lake Chad to curtail ISIS influence there. However, what is most important about the branch’s recent operations within Nigeria is that they have extended outside ISIS’s traditional spheres of influence in the states of Borno and Yobe since the beginning of 2022. Operations outside these two states have ramped up particularly since April. It is worth considering why operations outside of these traditional areas of influence are increasing.

ISIS Appears to be Taking on New Spheres of Influence in Nigeria

New Turf:

The Taliban’s inability to eliminate ISIS or even reduce its operations after taking control of Afghanistan raises many questions, especially identifying the nature of the threats the organization poses in Afghanistan, with operations focused on the city of Jalalabad and escalating operations in the capital Kabul during November 2021. These challenges are related to ISIS, including its nature and the form of its presence, which has not changed its approach of successive operations that never push for territorial control, as well as its reliance on sleeper cells. This is in addition to its positioning on the rugged border with Pakistan, which is an advantage in terms of taking cover, planning operations, and attracting new members from those disgruntled with the Taliban and former army and intelligence personnel. Some factors can also be identified that are related to the Taliban, including the crisis of transitioning from insurgency to counterinsurgency, as well as the refusal of US support since the withdrawal of American forces, amid great internal challenges and burdens.

Muhammad Al-Faqi‏‏

Muhammad Al-Faqi‏‏

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