Dr. Ahmed Askar‏‏

Russia has become increasingly interested in strengthening ties with Senegal, which had been at the top of Russia’s strategic agenda as it attempts to expand its influence in West Africa and the Sahel through various approaches. Through these efforts, Russia aims to solidify its presence in Africa and its position on the global stage.

Why Russia is Interested in Developing Ties with Senegal

Moscow’s Strategy:

On 1 January 2024, the Independent National Electoral Commission of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) announced that incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi won a second term, according to preliminary election results. Nineteen candidates competed in the elections, held over two days starting on 20 December and extended for a third day due to logistical challenges that hindered the electoral process in some areas. Tshisekedi received more than 13 million votes, or 73.34% of votes cast in the election, which saw a turnout of 43% of the 44 million eligible voters in the country of more than 111 million people. 

How Have Tensions in the DRC Increased After the Elections?

Tshisekedi’s Predicament:

On 9 December 2023, Djibouti hosted an extraordinary summit of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to discuss solutions to the conflict in Sudan. The conflict, which is entering its ninth month and has spread geographically to 11 of Sudan’s 18 states, is undergoing fundamental course shifts. Both parties are committed to resolving the conflict militarily, without offering any concessions, as reflected in the failure of international and regional peace initiatives, such as the Jeddah platform, to find a way out of the Sudanese crisis thus far. This threatens further escalation in the Sudan, and perhaps a resort to catastrophic scenarios for the future of Sudanese unity and cohesion.

What Obstacles Hinder the Resolution of the Sudan Conflict?

Faltering Mediation:

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently invited Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to visit Moscow from 13 to 17 June 2023. During the visit, the two discussed pathways for strengthening bilateral relations. This visit is of particular importance because it had been postponed on multiple occasions due to the COVID-19 pandemic after it was initially announced in May 2020. The two sides signed various agreements and declared their intentions to expand their strategic partnership. The visit occurred amidst increasing global unrest and concerns about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, Algeria could find itself subject to pressure from the US and West, which hope to discourage further development of Algerian-Russian ties during the coming period.

What Are the Dimensions of the Russian-Algerian Rapprochement?

A Strategic Partnership:

Various international powers are vying for rare minerals and metals found in Africa, especially lithium ore. Lithium ore is becoming increasingly important at the economic and strategic level for major industrialized countries including the US and China, which use lithium in both military and civilian industries. Lithium is one of the most sought-after minerals and is used for manufacturing electric cars (which require lithium-ion batteries) as well as for smartphones, tablets, laptop computers, digital cameras, and internet servers. It is integral to many emission-reduction technologies as part of the global transition towards a green economy and clean energy in order to combat climate change. There are various potential international ramifications of the scramble for lithium, as well as many repercussions for Africa.

The Scramble for African Lithium

Mineral Wars:

China has continued to greatly expand its influence on the African continent over the recent period, thanks to the huge projects carried out by the Chinese government in many African countries and the pumping of further investments into various vital areas on the continent. This has helped give China a more positive image in African public opinion. It has also strengthened ties between Beijing and most of the African ruling elites as part of its policy to strengthen its presence vis-à-vis competing powers in this important geopolitical sphere. However, in recent years, China has faced a wave of resentment from a broad sector of African communities that reject some of China’s policies there—though relatively on the part of governments—especially with regard to its various projects and investments in Africa. This situation raises questions about how much Chinese influence on the continent has been affected by that wave and its future in the coming period.

Why is Resentment Growing over China’s Presence in African Countries?

A Threatening Influence:

The detection of the new COVID-19 variant "Omicron" in South Africa poses a new, looming challenge for African countries that have already been struggling to recover economically since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. This is especially relevant amid new procedures taken by European countries and others to limit the spread of the new variant. African economies will take a serious blow if the lockdown and travel ban from some African countries continue, and the scope of banned countries is only expected to widen. Moreover, vital sectors such as oil and tourism will be affected due to these measures, while global superpowers, especially China and the United States, will likely expand their influence in the continent through vaccine and medical diplomacy.

Dr. Ahmed Askar‏‏

Dr. Ahmed Askar‏‏

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