Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

The South Caucasus has pursued ties with the GCC since the former nations gained independence following the collapse of the USSR. In 2022, these two regions celebrated various diplomatic milestones. Saudi Arabia had previously been the first country to recognize Azerbaijan’s independence in 1992. In 1994, Azerbaijan opened an embassy in Riyadh, while a Saudi embassy was established in Baku in June 1999. Azerbaijan has also had diplomatic relations with Oman and Bahrain since 1992 and 1996, respectively. Because of its ties with Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia has for decades refused to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia due to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

What Fuels the Partnership between the South Caucasus and the GCC?

Forging Alliances:

The UAE has been actively diversifying its relationships around the world and has emerged as arguably the leading partner of the former Soviet states. Kazakh President Tokayev’s visit to the UAE (January 16th-19th), where he met with UAE leaders and took part in Abu Dhabi’s Sustainability Week, may strengthen this hypothesis. Why has this relationship strengthened so significantly in recent years, and what does it say about the UAE’s role in global power dynamics?

How the New Partnerships between the UAE and Kazakhstan Strengthen their Interests

A Window of Opportunity:

Since it began almost a year ago, Russia’s "special operation" in Ukraine has been compared with its actions in Syria. Experts have compared Russian hybrid methods in Ukraine and Syria, identified common tactics, offered potential scenarios, and concluded that the Ukraine conflict is becoming more and more like Syria. With the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine war approaching on 24 February 2023, this article aims to examine whether Russia will withdraw from Syria because of its involvement in the Ukraine war. A second, perhaps related, question is whether Ukraine will follow the Syrian model, where 15 March 2023 will mark almost 12 years of civil war following the original protests, although Russia’s involvement did not begin until late 2015.

How Ukraine War Affects Russia's Syria Involvement

Interconnected Wars:

The war in Ukraine has shaken all aspects of the international order, including well-established alliances and powers that underpin broader global dynamics. GCC-Russia relations have attracted the attention of experts, since this will have direct repercussions for crucial spheres such as the energy market. Most discussions of GCC-Russia relations have focused on bilateral trade of commodities including oil, how this alliance could help both sides overcome Western sanctions However, limited consideration has been given thus far to the role of culture as a soft power tool in fostering bilateral relations between Russia and the GCC. Could culture emerge as an alternate path towards bilateral dialogue? How can both sides draw upon cultural connections to further bilateral cooperation in economic and military spheres?

Soft Power in GCC-Russia Relations Since the Ukraine War

Cultural Bridges:

From 7-10 December, Moscow hosted the XVIII International Muslim Forum, entitled "Justice and Moderation: Divine Principles of World Order." The forum aimed to foster dialogue with the Muslim world and was jointly organized by the International Muslim Forum, the Religious Board of Muslims of the Russian Federation, and the Moscow Islamic Institute. It came at a crucial time for Russia’s Muslim community (umma), which this year celebrated the 1100th anniversary of the official adoption of Islam in 922 by the peoples of Volga Bulgaria.

Bolstering Russia’s Religious Ties with the GCC

Spiritual Diplomacy:

During the nine months since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Kremlin has continued to maintain an active presence in the MENA region. During the special session of the UN General Assembly held on 2 March, 14 MENA countries voted in support of a resolution that denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and demanded the withdrawal of the Russian military. Meanwhile, one MENA country voted against the resolution, three abstained and one did not vote. Regional actors have primarily adopted a policy of hedging or "balancing adversaries," which was Moscow’s policy in most similar situations prior to the Ukraine war. Russia’s approach now appears to be paying dividends in the form of a relatively neutral response from the MENA region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington recently argued, "most of the developing world in Asia and Africa, including the Middle East, has not viewed the Ukraine war as the kind of definitive, transformational moment in international relations that the West does." He added that these countries have instead prioritized their national interests. This is case with Saudi Arabia, which has adopted what Kristin Smith Diwan called a "new nationalist foreign policy."

How Russia’s Middle East Policy Has Evolved after the Ukraine War

Different Scenarios:

The geopolitical competition playing out among the great powers in Europe has shed light on the political and economic significance of the MENA region. US Vice President Kamala Harris recently led the "strongest delegation" to the UAE since President Joe Biden took office, during which she offered her condolences on the death of its ruler Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The conflict in Ukraine has brought UAE-US tensions into focus and the visit was seen as "a bid to step up efforts to repair frayed ties with Gulf allies."

A Turning Point for Power Dynamics in the MENA Region

The Ukraine Conflict:

Prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia’s foreign policies relied heavily on pursuing "win-win" strategies, balancing relations with all states to advance key Russian interests in the region. Russia has maintained measured and moderated relations with Turkey and Israel while also supporting al-Assad’s regime in the Syrian War. Moscow has even managed to build good relations with the GCC states, despite the geopolitical disagreements between these parties. Moreover, this distinct policy approach has been applied to bilateral disputes between neighboring countries, such as protecting interests with both Israel and Palestine, as well as internal civil conflicts, such as in Libya. In the latter case, Russia provided military support to General Khalifa Haftar, the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), while at the same time brokered talks between it and the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Fayez al-Sarraj in January 2020. This was not a coincidence, but rather an example of Russia’s skillful balancing act, which seeks to bridge gaps between adversaries and bolster the interests of all sides in any dispute.

Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

Dr. Diana Galeeva‏‏

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