Dr. Muhammad Abbas Naji‏‏

The visit of Iran’s minister of foreign affairs, Abbas Araghchi, to Afghanistan, on 26 January 2025—during which he met the Taliban’s prime minister, Mohammad Hasan Akhund, and his foreign ministry counterpart, Ahmed Taqi Khan—is notable for being the first visit of an Iranian foreign minister since 2017, as well as the first such visit since the Taliban retook power in Kabul in mid-August 2021. This suggests a change in Iranian policy towards the Taliban, imposed by recent changes taking place in the regional and international arenas, most notably Iran’s declining role in the Middle East.

Why is Iran Interested in Opening Up to the Taliban?

Policy Shift:

Dr. Mohammad Salami‏‏

In August 2021, following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban returned to power. However, Russia was not worried about this development: It did not close its embassy in Afghanistan ​and was the third country (after Pakistan and Turkmenistan) to accept Taliban-appointed diplomats. As Russian President Vladimir Putin said, relations with the Taliban "must be established somehow—these are the people who control the country and its territory."

How is Russia Developing its Ties with Taliban?

Strategic Embrace:

Sabena Siddiqi‏‏

Over the last few weeks, the Taliban-led administration in Kabul has been making strategic moves towards new regional cooperation. Although this Afghan regime remains unrecognized, it is exploring geopolitical and strategic options that have attracted attention.

Understanding Taliban's Geopolitical Maneuvers in the Region

Regional Posturing:

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

InterRegional for Strategic Analysis organized a panel discussion on 19 August 2021 entitled "The Future of Afghanistan Under Taliban Rule," hosting Mohammad Bashir Mobasher, Professor of Political Systems at the American University of Afghanistan, Adjunct Professor of Constitutional Law at Western Washington University, and Law Consultant to the German Max Planck Foundation for International Peace and the Rule of Law. The staff at the InterRegional headquarters in Abu Dhabi and non-resident researchers participated in the meeting.

The Future of Afghanistan under Taliban rule

An Afghan View:

Dr. M. Bashir Mobasher‏‏

If we were to explain the downfall of previous Afghan constitutions and regimes by a single defining factor, it would be the exclusion of rival, mostly defeated groups by the rulers. Amanullah’s liberal constitution ignored the will of a considerably traditional society. Zahir Shah’s constitution aimed at marginalizing Daud Khan. Daud Khan tried to crackdown on Khalqis and Parchamis. Communist administrations excluded the Islamists. Islamists, including the Taliban, attempted to eliminate each other, while the Islamic Republic ostracized the Taliban. In most of these cases, the once defeated and excluded individuals and groups returned victorious only to form their own exclusivist regimes. As this vicious cycle of exclusion continued, so did the downfall of governments.

What Does the Future Hold for the New Taliban Government?

Non-Inclusive Governance:

Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar‏‏

The Taliban, a religious fundamentalist organization, has moved swiftly to fill the power vacuum in Afghanistan created due to the withdrawal of U.S.-led forces from the beleaguered country that has yet to recover from the decades of instability due to external military interventions and the power struggle within. The Taliban previously ruled between 1996 and 2001, when they declared Afghanistan to be an Islamic Emirate. In 2021, the group has again announced the formation of an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Unlike during their previous stint in power, the Taliban has announced that they will respect the rights of women and minorities within the context of "sharia" law. Nonetheless, reports of problems and harsh action by Taliban fighters have been coming through social media.

What a Taliban- led Afghanistan Will Mean for India?

Containment Dilemma:

Abdul Mukhtar Haqqin‏‏

Note: The researcher’s full name and job description have been withheld for his safety in light of the turbulent situation inside Afghanistan.

Taliban

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