InterRegional for Strategic Analysis

In light of recent developments with the war in Ukraine, and in order to better understand the Middle East’s political, security, and economic stakes in this war, InterRegional For Strategic Analysis held a discussion panel entitled "Regional Fallout: What are the Repercussions of the War in Ukraine for the Middle East?" The panel was led by Dr. Li-Chen Sim, a professor at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., and included researchers based in both Abu Dhabi and Cairo. Dale Sprusansky, Assistant Editor at the Washington Report for Middle East Affairs, moderated the panel discussion.

What are the Repercussions of the War in Ukraine for the Middle East? (Panel Discussion)

Regional Fallout:

Mohamed Basyouny Abd Elhaleem‏‏

In his book on lying in international politics, John Mearsheimer observes that "lying to opponents, albeit loathsome, is usually widely accepted as a strategic weapon in foreign policy." This observation certainly applies to the Ukrainian crisis, which has been simmering for months and entered a more complex phase after Moscow announced a military intervention in Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Russia’s move has been coupled with opposition campaigns by parties to the conflict using false and misleading information that have enjoyed massive circulation across traditional and non-traditional media. These campaigns are designed to achieve many objectives, perhaps most importantly the ability to promote a narrative of the conflict and its justifications from the perspective of each side, as well as to weaken the military position of the other side by publishing fake videos and photographs showing the opponent’s losses. Disinformation is also a key tool of mutual finger-pointing, which may explain the mutual accusations of lying, deception, and disinformation between Russian and Ukrainian officials, as well as between officials of Russia and Western nations.

Disinformation Campaigns Occupy the Ukrainian Crisis

Media Wars:

On 25 February 2022, InterRegional for Strategic Analysis held a discussion panel entitled, "The Day After: What Happens After the Russian War on Ukraine?" featuring Dr. Samuel Ramani, Lecturer of International Relations at the University of Oxford and Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain. The panel addressed developments in the Ukrainian crisis after the Russian intervention in Ukraine, the implications of this intervention, and possible scenarios for the crisis.

What Happens After the Russian War on Ukraine? (Panel Discussion)

The Day After:

Dr. Cyril Widdershoven‏‏

International media and government assessments of the Ukraine-Russia conflict have occupied the headlines and minds of many throughout the world in recent weeks. The ongoing build-up of Russian forces along Ukraine’s border has been primarily analyzed through the lens of Russia-NATO tensions or the European energy crunch. A potential military engagement or incursion by Russia into Ukraine will not only disrupt Russian oil from reaching European consumers, but the expected harsh economic and financial sanctions on Russia in such a case could also severely curtail Moscow’s oil and gas exports to markets worldwide. If Russian energy is removed from the already tight global energy markets, then the world may be heading for a possible economic and security meltdown.

Developments in Ukraine Jeopardize Feedstock Supply for the MENA Region

Protracted Crises:

Dr. Ahmad Abdelkader Yahia‏‏

Given its strong relationships with the parties involved, the Israeli government has multiple concerns about developments in the Ukrainian crisis. Tel Aviv is apprehensive about the continued declining status of the US in the world, which may lead to reduced American support for Israel and an accelerated US withdrawal from the Middle East that may leave Tel Aviv face-to-face with hostile powers in the region. Furthermore, Tel Aviv fears the possible negative repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis on its understandings with Russia in Syria, which may limit the room to maneuver that Israel has grown accustomed to in recent years, not to mention the potential blow-back of the Ukrainian crisis inside Israel, where nearly one million Jews of Russian origin live, and concern for a new wave of Jewish immigration from Ukraine if the situation worsens. All these factors are pushing Tel Aviv to try to maintain an equal distance from all sides in the Ukrainian crisis and to work as hard as possible to prevent a full-blown war. Despite a statement from Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, on 20 February 2022 that his nation’s position will be consistent with that of the West in the event of "an outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine," all indicators confirm that Israel is eager to adopt a "policy of neutrality" vis-à-vis the crisis, which has prompted some Ukrainian officials to accuse Israel of sympathizing with the Russian view of the crisis.

Ukraine

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